Persistent intelligence reports that thousands of North Korean troops were heading to Russia raised the alarm they could be used in the war against Ukraine.
That fear has now crystalized with confirmation that North Korean soldiers are not only on Russian soil, but have already been deployed in a western region bordering Ukraine where Russian forces are trying to beat back a Ukrainian incursion.
Not Fake News
South Korea's National Intelligence Service has been saying for weeks that its archenemy North Korea was preparing to send military personnel, including fighter pilots, to Russia. More than 12,000 were predicted to arrive by the end of the year, according to their assessments.
Both Moscow and Pyongyang, which have boosted their defense cooperation since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, have denied the reports as "fake news" while saying their military cooperation was in keeping with international law.
Those claims took a big hit on October 28 when the NATO military alliance confirmed that North Korean troops had been deployed in the country's western Kursk region.
NATO chief Mark Rutte said the deployment marked "a significant escalation" of North Korea's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine, a threat to global security, and was in violation of international law.
Rutte also said that the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia was a sign of Russian President Vladimir Putin's "growing desperation"
"Over 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Putin’s war and he is unable to sustain his assault on Ukraine without foreign support," Rutte said.
Diplomatic Action
The impact of NATO’s announcement was felt in capitals around the world.
In Washington, the Defense Department said that 10,000 North Korean troops had already been sent to Russia and were likely to join the fight against Ukraine within "the next several weeks."
A portion of the troops, the Defense Department said on October 28, were heading toward the Kursk region where Russian forces have struggled to push out thousands of Ukrainian troops that have occupied parts of the Russian region since a surprise incursion in August.
"We are increasingly concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces,” deputy Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy -- who warned last week that North Korean troops were headed for the battlefield -- was on the phone early on October 29 with his South Korean counterpart, Yook Suk Yeol.
"We discussed the involvement of North Korean military forces in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The conclusion is clear: this war is becoming internationalized, extending beyond two countries," Zelensky wrote on X.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, prepared for meetings with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, who arrived in Moscow on October 29. Russian news agencies said Choe would meet with unspecified Russian officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Putin had no plans to meet with North Korea's top diplomat.
'Fair Game'
Zelenskiy warned last week that the arrival of North Korean troops would mean that "Ukraine will be forced to actually fight against North Korea in Europe."
The Pentagon said on October 28 that should North Koreans appear on the battlefield, there would be no restrictions on the Ukrainian military’s use of U.S. weapons against them.
That came after White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said last week that if North Korean troops "do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they're fair game."
Kirby added at the time that a key question was what North Korea stood to gain from the deployment.
Nuclear-armed North Korea has long been accused of aiding Russia's war against Ukraine.
A year ago, Washington said Pyongyang had shipped military equipment to Russia that "would be used to attack Ukrainian cities, kill Ukrainian civilians, and further Russia's illegitimate war." In January, Washington and Kyiv began accusing Russia of using ballistic missiles supplied by Pyongyang against Ukraine.
There has been speculation that Choe's visit to Moscow on October 29 might be intended to determine how Pyongyang can cash in on its military help.
Help Is In The Air
North Korea has already gained a measure of protection against Western foes by aligning with Moscow -- which, like Pyongyang, has been heavily sanctioned by the international community.
In June, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense pact that calls for each side to "immediately provide military and other assistance with all the means at its disposal" should one side "get into a state of war due to an armed aggression.”
South Korea's National Intelligence Service reportedly told parliamentarians on October 29 that North Korea could be acquiring advanced components from Moscow related to "space-based reconnaissance," a capability that Kim has described as crucial to his military.
North Korea expert Benjamin Young told RFE/RL that Russia owes a lot to Pyongyang and has much to give in exchange for military aid.
"The North Koreans can now use the Russian angle to gain high-level missile and space technology and expertise," said Young, an expert with the Rand Corporation think tank. "More specifically, the North Koreans want to develop multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payloads for their missiles. The Russians can help with that."
Young also said that, for North Korea, "the ability to gain actual battlefield experience is huge” and “could potentially help Pyongyang down the road in case a conflict ever breaks out on the Korean Peninsula.”
At The Ready
North Korean military personnel also have a lot to offer Russia on the battlefield, Young said.
"I wouldn’t be surprised if North Korean pilots start operating Russian fighter jets,” Young said. “I also think they could help on the battlefield with technical missile expertise."
Nonspecialized troops, Young said, could help repel the continuing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk.
"Since that is technically Russian territory, the Kremlin can assert that the North Koreans are assisting with ‘counterterrorism’ operations and remain within the gray zone of international law."
Young listed communication and lack of battlefield testing among the North Korean soldiers' biggest shortfalls.
"Most of the North Koreans likely do not speak Russian and they do not have actual combat experience yet," Young said. “The North Koreans will not be used to the lack of discipline and regimentation amongst Russian conscripts."
Defection Question
Kyiv is preparing to lure North Korean soldiers over to its side with the promise of warm beds and three meals a day.
On its “I Want To Live” social media channels set up to convince Russian combatants to drop their arms, Ukraine's military intelligence agency sent a direct message to Moscow’s North Korean allies on October 23.
"To the soldiers of the Korean People's Army: You, who were sent to help the Putin regime, you do not need to die senselessly in another country," the Korean-language post read. "Surrender! Ukraine protects you, provides you with food and warmth. Thousands of Russian soldiers have already made the right choice."
But Young said North Korean soldiers were likely to be "highly monitored" and, while defections are a possibility, they "likely realize there is a great chance of being captured and then executed back in North Korea."
