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Russia 2018: Kremlin Countdown

Updated

A tip sheet on Russia's March 18 presidential election delivering RFE/RL and Current Time TV news, videos, and analysis along with links to what our Russia team is watching. Compiled by RFE/RL correspondents and editors.

Irkutsk Against The Boycott

As we have reported previously, many places in Russia are hold nonbinding but still somehow interesting referendums on March 18 in apparent bids to boost turnout.

In the face of opposition leader Aleksei Navalny's call for a voter boycott, the Kremlin evidently feels that low turnout could undermine the legitimacy as incumbent Putin cruises to a fourth term as president.

The Far Eastern city of Irkutsk has launched a particularly interesting referendum in which voters will supposedly decide in which municipal district the city will spend 150 million rubles ($2.1 million) for improvements.

The winner, the city claims, will get new parks and squares and more. Interestingly, locals above the age of 14 are eligible to vote.

Via The Moscow Times and RBC:

Moscow Officials Block Navalny's Boycott Rally On Election Day

Moscow city officials have rejected opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s request to hold a rally in the capital on March 18, the day of Russia’s presidential elections.

Navalny was barred from participating in upcoming elections, which Vladimir Putin is expected to win, due to a prior criminal conviction for embezzlement that his supporters say is politically motivated. He has called for a boycott the elections in which authorities are hoping to secure a 70 percent turnout.

The Moscow mayor’s representative Vladimir Chernikov told the RBC business portal that the so-called “Voter’s Strike,” violated Russian election law.

“Holding such a protest on election day is illegal,” Chernikov said.

Note that the Navalny rally that authorities have rejected (see below or here) was (is?) planned for Manezh Square, where, as we previously reported, the Kremlin is said to be planning to hold its Putin victory rally on March 18.

Another installment in our video primers on the presidential election is upon us. This one profiles the man most conspicuously excluded from the ballot and someone already pretty familiar to most of you.

Russian Elections 101: The Outsider
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The previous installments were The Watchdogs and The Shoo-In.

Kremlin 'Trolls' Meddling In Russia's Own Elections? 'Of Course We Are!'

By Dmitry Volchek and Robert Coalson

Over the last three years, there have been many reports from people working inside the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg -- an enterprise perhaps better known as Putin's Troll Factory.

Most of those accounts have come from former employees and have focused on their work to influence politics and societies in the West.

And in fact, oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin's company was named last month in an indictment by U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller as part of his investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

But the Internet Research Agency has a much larger contingent of Russian-language trolls, working to promote the Kremlin's ends inside Russia itself -- sowing paranoia and confusion, and spreading false accusations and malicious characterizations of anyone the ruling elites see as a danger to the system created by President Vladimir Putin.

Early last month, however, an account appeared on the Telegram app under the name Kremlebot from a man who purports to be currently working in the Russian-language section of the Internet Research Agency. Kremlebot declined RFE/RL's requests for an interview, fearing that it could lead to his unmasking. Instead, he agreed to let RFE/RL quote freely from his Telegram posts.

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Sobchak Invites Golos And Navalny Monitors Into Her Camp

A promo for Ksenia Sobchak's TV program
A promo for Ksenia Sobchak's TV program

Candidate Ksenia Sobchak has invited election monitors from the camps of opposition leader Aleksei Navalny and the independent election watchdog Golos to serve as her official observers during the March 18 balloting.

The Central Election Commission previously refused to accredit representatives of publications linked to Navalny and Golos as election monitors. Navalny has been barred from the ballot due to a criminal conviction he calls politically motivated. Golos has repeatedly clashed with authorities over its critical assessments of Russian elections and previous foreign financing.

Navalny has called Sobchak a "caricature liberal candidate" whose candidacy is being used by the Kremlin to project the illusion of an open electoral process while simultaneously discrediting true opposition candidates.

Putin As 'Guiding Star'

It’s not the first time in recent memory that a lavishly produced music video is circulating in Russia extolling Vladimir Putin. The one that was posted to YouTube on March 6 is unusual in two regards, however.

First is its timing: just 12 days remaining before the presidential election. As of March 8, it had attracted nearly 790,000 views on YouTube and more than 10 million on VK.

Second is that the team of celebrities enlisted includes some of Russia’s best-known pop stars, including rapper Timati and Eurovision winner Dima Bilan.

According to The Moscow Times, the organizers are calling "Team Putin" an effort that was started by hockey star Aleksandr Ovechkin. The name of the song? Guiding Star, whose first word in Russian sounds vaguely like Putin.

Here’s a quick translation of some of the lyrics (courtesy of The Moscow Times):

Our ship sails with pride towards the wind and waves, and will not be veered off course by storms and rain.

The ocean of life can be difficult, but our native shores keep us safe.

Out of a million stars, only one is true, only one is visible: the guiding star.

We are stronger together, if the guiding star is with us, showing us the way.

Boycott Or Vote Against Putin?

The excellent and thought-provoking website The Question has posed the poser: Why is boycotting the election better than voting for someone other than Putin?

The interactive website allows ordinary Russians and experts as well to post their thoughtful reactions to the topic and, if you read Russian, this question has produced some high-quality responses that are, to be frank, suffused with the notion that the election is a farce and a sense that there is nothing that can be done about it. The general consensus of the first 11 responses is that opposition politician Aleksei Navalny's call for a boycott works in Vladimir Putin's favor since at least 50 percent of Russians will willingly or under pressure vote for the incumbent in any event and a low turnout won't harm the appearance of legitimacy because elections in Western democratic countries also often draw minimal participation.

Former Deputy Energy Minister and Navalny supporter Vladimir Milov posted on social media about The Question's polls, adding his view that one respondent hit the nail on the head with the comment that a boycott is better "because your ballot can be doctored but empty polling stations can't."

Another respondent wrote similarly: "A boycott would really be an effective weapon if Navalny and his team managed to persuade an absolute majority to support the boycott. If in 10 days only 20 percent of eligible voters showed up, then it could be boldly said that the regime has signed its own death sentence.... But the situation is completely different." The same respondent suggested that if you do decide to vote, you should do it at the end of the day so that you can make sure someone hasn't already cast a ballot in your name. In addition, everyone should sign up to monitor the vote and make it more difficult for the authorities to manipulate the figures with impunity. And third, urged the respondent, go to a pensioner and show them the evidence of Putin's corruption -- the villas, the yachts, the private planes -- and try to persuade them not to vote for more of the same.

Election Night With The Putin Campaign

The Vedomosti business daily has some details about how Vladimir Putin's campaign plans to celebrate its all-but-certain victory on March 18.

The campaign plans to deploy no fewer than 100,000 "election monitors" to guard against surprises.

And it will reportedly bring all its official representatives to its headquarters in Moscow to watch the returns. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "it cannot be excluded" that Putin himself will visit the headquarters.

Earlier, the website Znak.com reported that Putin's campaign plans a huge victory rally on Manezh Square on the night of March 18-19.

The Old Ways Are The Best Ways

Officials in Russia's western Kaliningrad Oblast are resorting to old Soviet methods of turning out the vote for the March 18 presidential ballot.

In the city of Gusev, officials reportedly plan to sell basic staples at "social prices" at special stands set up "near polling stations."

Gusev residents will be able to pick up sugar, macaroni, canned beef and pork, sprats in oil, and the like for prices they aren't likely to see again until the next time Vladimir Putin comes up for reelection.

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