WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Two days prior to his pivotal meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer took to the floor of Parliament to announce the country’s largest increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War.
Starmer announced plans to fast-track a raise in defense spending to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027 and aim for 3 percent in the next Parliament (2029).
“I think in our heart of hearts, we’ve all known that this decision has been coming for three years since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. The last few weeks have accelerated my thinking,” Starmer told reporters after his address to lawmakers.
Starmer’s decision comes amid a post-Cold War low in transatlantic relations as Trump questions NATO’s value, criticizes Ukraine’s leadership, and explores a deal on European security with Russia.
Starmer -- a center-left politician who took office in July -- will be hoping that by accelerating defense-spending targets, the United Kingdom will be seen to be addressing Trump’s long-standing complaints about NATO allies not paying their share.
Starmer’s visit follows French President Emmanuel Macron’s February 24 trip to the White House, where he also sought to keep Washington engaged in European security and support a fair Ukraine peace deal.
The back-to-back high level visits underscore growing fears in Europe that a U.S. deal with the Kremlin that leaves Ukraine vulnerable could destabilize the continent.
U.S. Policy Flip
Since taking office five weeks ago, Trump has moved aggressively to fulfill his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine, flipping three years of U.S. policy on its head.
Trump shocked his European counterparts earlier this month when he announced that he held a lengthy and productive phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said his national-security team would "immediately" begin negotiations with the Kremlin on ending the war.
Trump later said he would like Russia to rejoin the Group of Eight leading industrial nations while his Secretary of State Marco Rubio talked up business opportunities for U.S. companies in Russia.
Any lifting of sanctions on Russia -- a necessary step to do business in the country again -- would allow the Kremlin to rearm, posing a threat to European security, analysts have said.
Trump’s approach marks a stark shift from predecessor Joe Biden’s political and economic isolation of Russia.
European leaders now fear Trump’s direct engagement with Moscow could lead to a settlement that prioritizes U.S.-Russia relations over European security concerns, effectively leaving them without influence in decisions that affect the region’s stability.
To head off that outcome, Macron organized emergency talks with EU leaders on February 17 to formulate a unified response.
“The United States has shifted, and Europe has realized that if it wants to be serious about its own security and also about a long-term settlement of Ukraine, which is essential to European security, then they need to change as well,” said Fiona Hill, Trump’s former Russia adviser during his first term.
Starmer and Macron plan a 30,000-strong European force but seek U.S. support.
“The U.K. is ready and willing to support this [peace deal] with troops on the ground. And ultimately, a U.S. backstop will be vital to deter Russia from launching another invasion in just a few years’ time,” Starmer said earlier this week.
That backstop -- likely the heart of discussions at the White House -- could include promises of U.S. air, logistics and communications support in the event of a violation of a peace deal by Russia.
Is it Enough?
Trump’s foreign policy shift is driven by his view that the United States has limited military and financial resources and must focus those on the Indo-Pacific to deter China, whom he sees as the main threat to U.S. national security.
From Trump’s perspective, Europe must bear the burden of protecting itself from Russia by ramping up defense spending. For years, most European countries had failed to meet NATO’s 2 percent defense spending target, pushing Trump to accuse them of riding on U.S. coattails and question the value of the alliance.
Trump has recently called on NATO members to boost defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, a target that some experts consider unrealistic, and which would put significant pressure on many EU budgets, forcing them to either raise taxes or cut benefits. The United States spends about 3.4 percent of GDP on defense.
Starmer intends to finance the U.K. increase in defense spending to 2.5 percent by slashing international aid. The increase to 3 percent possibly by the end of the decade would force tougher fiscal decisions.
Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defense and security think tank, wrote in a February 24 note -- prior to Starmer’s defense spending announcement -- that a U.K .increase to 2.5 percent of GDP would probably not be enough to impress Trump.
Arnold argued that, in order to boost U.K influence, Starmer “will need to commit to 3 percent, not ‘as soon as fiscal conditions allow’ but immediately.”
But defense spending isn’t the only instrument in Starmer’s toolbox as he heads to Washington, Arnold said. Starmer could appeal to Trump’s “ego and emotions” to sway the U.S. president on the parameters of a Ukraine peace deal.
Starmer must “make a strong case for what will happen to [Trump’s] reputation and standing if he gets played by Russia during negotiations,” he said.
Starmer’s success -- or lack thereof -- with Trump could shape the future of European security and test whether Washington can still find common ground with its traditional allies in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape.
