Middle East
The Foreign Militants Among The Ranks Of Syria's New Rulers
Hundreds of foreign fighters are in the ranks of the Syrian militants who seized power and toppled longtime President Bashar al-Assad, RFE/RL has learned.
Videos posted on social media and verified by RFE/RL show Europeans and Central Asians fighting for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) during the militant group's lightening takeover of Syria this month.
Foreigners comprise only a fraction of the overall fighting force of the estimated 10,000-strong HTS and allied groups. But the presence of battle-hardened and radicalized foreign fighters is seen as a risk to Syria's stability and a security threat in their homelands.
"This will be one of the biggest concerns from a U.S. perspective because they aren't indigenous Syrians," said Aaron Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute. "The U.S. is likely less concerned with the Syrians within HTS."
HTS is a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization that was previously affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The militant Islamist group has pledged tolerance and inclusivity, although concerns remain over its alleged rights abuses and ties to terrorist groups.
'It Was Suicide'
One video verified by RFE/RL shows an Albanian-speaking fighter standing in front of the Citadel of Aleppo in Syria's second-largest city. The video was recorded on November 30, the day HTS captured the northwestern city.
In the video, the unidentified man said the militants were fighting to "remove oppression" in Syria, a reference to the brutal rule of Assad, and described the capture of Aleppo as a "great victory."
The man is seen wearing the insignia of Albanian Tactical, a unit of Xhemati Alban, which is considered a subgroup of HTS and made up of ethnic Albanians mostly from Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia.
"It is a well-structured Islamist jihadist group operating under the HTS umbrella," said Adrian Shtuni, a Washington-based security and radicalization expert.
"Albanian Tactical focuses on specific military skills, including sniper training and explosives, while also providing training for other fighters," Shtuni added. "This demonstrates a shift from being just combatants to becoming a strategic force within HTS."
After Syria's civil war broke out in 2011, hundreds of ethnic Albanians flocked to Syria to join the Islamic State (IS) extremist group and the Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. The Nusra Front was later renamed HTS.
Among them was an ethnic Albanian man from North Macedonia who fought in Syria for four years until 2020 and then returned to Europe.
"I was young, and we were deceived from videos on the Internet," said the man, who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
"Then, we came into contact with some people from Turkey and we left for Syria," added the man, who did not reveal the group he joined. "It was suicide. We barely managed to escape. I'm trying to forget everything and live a normal life."
North Macedonia's Interior Ministry said at least four citizens are actively fighting for armed groups in Syria and neighboring Iraq.
Albania estimates around 30 of its citizens are currently in Syria.
Radicalized Foreigners
Eva Dumani was 8 years old when her father, Shkelzen, took her to Syria in 2013 and joined IS.
The whereabouts of Eva, now 19, are unknown, although the orphans and widows of IS militants are often held in camps by rival groups.
Xhetan Ndregjoni, Eva's uncle, said he speaks to his niece sporadically, "even though she is very reluctant to reveal her exact whereabouts or situation."
"She writes a word, and then another after some hours or days," said Ndregjoni, speaking from Albania. "There have been a few times that I wanted to go to Syria and bring her back, but I don't know if she is under pressure, doesn't want to leave, or is radicalized."
Another European who came to fight in Syria is a 35-year-old man from Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The man, who has lived in Syria since 2013, is among the several dozen Bosnians believed to be residing in Syria.
Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, he described himself as a former "hippie" who turned to Salafism, an ultraradical sect under Sunni Islam. He said he moved to Syria to fight the Assad government and help "liberate the people of Syria."
"I was in several groups," he said, without specifying. "I think it was easier for me because I had no concept of war."
The man said he gave up fighting in 2018, marrying a local woman and transitioning to civilian life in the northwestern province of Idlib, a HTS stronghold.
Many Europeans who joined armed groups in Syria were radicalized online or lured by local recruiters. Others were motivated by religious beliefs and the idea of jihad, or holy war. Some were attracted by the money offered by militant groups.
'Major Trouble'
Another video verified by RFE/RL showed dozens of armed men in military fatigues in the Syrian village of Deir Semaan, the site of a Christian monastery located around 30 kilometers northwest of Aleppo.
One of the men in the video is a Tajik-speaking fighter who claims the group captured the area from "infidels." The footage was recorded on December 3.
It is unclear to which group the Tajik-speaking fighter belongs. But several smaller militant groups allied with the HTS consist of fighters from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, including Katibat al-Imam al-Bukhari and the Turkistan Brigade.
A Tajik security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the footage of Tajiks in Syria is "deeply disturbing" and a potential "time bomb."
"The videos remind us once again that these individuals can come back to Tajikistan one day and cause major trouble here," the official said.
Among the estimated 400 Tajiks in Syria are believed to be brothers Anvar Isomiddinov and Muhammadjon Isomiddinov, who are both in their 30s. Natives of the village of Chordeh in northern Tajikistan, they left for Syria around 2014.
A relative of the men, who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons, said the family lost contact with them several years ago.
"The last time the family spoke with Anvar and Muhammadjon, they pleaded with the brothers to come back," the relative said. "But they cut off the conversation and never called back again."
With contributions from Mumin Ahmadi in Prague, Mahmudjon Rahmatzoda in Tajikistan, Jetmira Delia in Albania, Enis Shaqiri in North Macedonia, and Arton Konushevci in Kosovo.
NOTE: This article has been amended to correct Eva Dumani's current age.
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'A Dangerous Situation': Azerbaijan Fears Becoming Embroiled In Widening Iran War
Fears are growing in Azerbaijan, Iran's northwestern neighbor, that the South Caucasus country could become embroiled in the US-Israeli war on Tehran that is widening in scope.
Baku accused Iran of firing drones that struck an airport and school in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan autonomous region on March 5, calling it an "act of terror" and vowing to respond. Tehran denied it fired the drones that injured two people.
The incident has heightened concerns in Azerbaijan -- which has close military, economic, and energy ties to Israel, Tehran's archenemy -- that it could become a target of the Islamic republic's expanding response to the massive US-Israeli air campaign launched on February 28.
Iran has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US military and diplomatic facilities and striking key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Tehran's aim, experts say, is to expand the war and increase the cost of the conflict for Washington and its allies.
"This is a dangerous situation," said Jasur Mammadov, a Germany-based Azerbaijani military analyst. "Azerbaijan has a long border with Iran," and if Turkey, Baku's closest ally, is not involved, "it would be very difficult to defend the country," he added.
Much of the concern in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich country of around 10 million people, is centered around fears that Iran could target its energy infrastructure, including pipelines and production facilities.
"Iran has developed drone technology capable of flying as far as 1,000 kilometers," said Mammadov, referring to a long-range version of the Shahed drone that can travel around 1,500 kilometers. "That means it could easily reach Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, as well as any city."
Experts say Baku's close ties with Israel make it a potential Iranian target. Azerbaijan, which shares an around 700-kilomter border with Iran, is a major supplier of oil to Israel. Israel, in turn, is a seller of arms and drones to Baku.
"If Iranian energy infrastructure is struck [by Israel], Tehran could look at Azerbaijan's energy facilities as potential targets, given that the Israelis get so much of their energy from Azerbaijan," US-based Iran analyst Alex Vatanka said before the war began.
Despite its growing ties with Israel ties, Baku has repeatedly said it will not allow its territory or airspace to be used by any country to launch military operations against Iran.
Iran has long been critical of Israel's presence in Azerbaijan. Tehran has accused Baku of cooperating with Israeli intelligence -- allegations Azerbaijan denies.
A day before the drone attack in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan region, President Ilham Aliyev made a rare visit to the Iranian Embassy in Baku to offer his condolences on the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in Tehran on February 28.
But on March 5, Aliyev's sentiment shifted.
"Iranian officials must provide an explanation to the Azerbaijani side, an apology must be offered, and those who committed this terrorist act must be held criminally liable," Aliyev said during a meeting of his security council.
Tehran denied it launched a drone attack on Azerbaijan. "The Islamic republic of Iran... denies its armed forces launched a drone toward the Republic of Azerbaijan," the general staff of the armed forces said in a statement, according to state TV, which blamed Israel.
Farhad Mammadov, an analyst close to the Azerbaijani government, said the drone attack will force Baku to take measures for its defense and begin consultations with Turkey.
Azerbaijan and Turkey share deep historical and cultural ties. In 2021, the sides expanded their "one nation, two states" partnership, under which both sides pledged to help the other if attacked.
During Azerbaijan's wars with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, Turkey supplied weapons to Baku, including advanced drones. Yerevan accused Turkey of direct involvement in the conflict, which Ankara and Baku denied.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry on March 5 condemned the drone attacks on Azerbaijan, calling for such attacks to end "immediately."
A day earlier, Turkey said a NATO defense system intercepted a ballistic missile in its border region. Iran rejected accusations that it launched a ballistic missile toward NATO-member Turkey.
"Turkey itself could feel threatened and may align closely with Azerbaijan," said Ata Mohammad Tabrizi, an Iranian analyst based in Turkey.
RFE/RL's Azerbaijani service contributed to this report.
Waiting Out The War: Stories Of Kyrgyz Citizens In Tehran
For Mamatmusa Ukubaev, the first explosions on February 28 were unnervingly close.
"There are military bases and facilities 1 or 2 kilometers away from us. They are being hit, too. The buildings usually have at least two floors for parking. They can be used as bomb shelters, and the authorities have made them open to the public," Ukubaev said, describing life in Tehran after the US–Israeli strikes began.
He noticed a strange mix of fear and curiosity among residents.
"People in Iran live on the streets. If bombs fall, they go up to the roof and watch. You don't see people running to shelters. I didn't leave the house for the first two days. But we ordered food from restaurants. There are fewer couriers, fewer taxi drivers, but they are still working."
Despite the danger, Ukubaev and his family have decided to stay, for now. He knows that if the situation worsens, there is a plan in place.
"The embassy weighed three or four options: Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Armenia. They decided the most convenient was via Baku. That's our plan. If it becomes serious, we need to drive to the border. They tell us which crossings are open. From there, we go to Baku and then fly to Kyrgyzstan."
While Ukubaev waits, another Kyrgyz citizen has already been evacuated.
Elmira Nurgaziyeva, who has lived in Iran for several years and works for an international organization, described her journey out of the country.
"Early yesterday, we left Tehran by buses. There were about 100 Russian citizens; I was the only Kyrgyz. The rest were from Russia and Belarus," she said. "The Russians escorted us to the Azerbaijani border town of Astara."
"I had official permission from Kyrgyzstan's embassy in Baku. I was allowed to cross the Azerbaijani border, so I had no problems. The Azerbaijani government transported us from Astara to Baku for free. I arrived in Baku on March 3," she said, reflecting on the long overland evacuation that brought her to safety.
According to Kyrgyz Ambassador Akylbek Kylichev, there are currently about 100 Kyrgyz citizens in Iran.
"Most of them are our women who married Iranian citizens many years ago. They now have families here and are settled. Some of them left after last year's war [in June 2025]. When the situation became dangerous, the embassy contacted all registered citizens and urged them to leave if possible. In the past few days, two citizens reached out to us. We evacuated them to Azerbaijan [on March 4]," the ambassador told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service.
As the conflict has escalated, Central Asian governments have been urging their citizens to leave Iran. Between February 28 and March 5, a total of 1,317 people from 45 countries were evacuated through the Azerbaijani border. Among them were 109 citizens of Tajikistan, three Uzbeks, three Kazakhs, and two Kyrgyz.
The Tajik ambassador to Iran, Nizamuddin Zohidi, told RFE/RL's Tajik Service that Turkmenistan had opened the Sarakhs crossing to help foreign citizens, including Tajiks, leave Iran. He added that embassy staff were working around the clock, with a hotline for citizens, and that Iranian authorities were assisting by transporting evacuees toward the border.
According to officials, the embassies of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have been coordinating evacuations, with diplomats stationed at key border crossings in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to assist their citizens. These routes are essential because air travel has been completely halted.
Michael Knights: Gulf Region On The Precipice Of Fundamental Change
With the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran now into its sixth day, both sides continue to launch attacks amid fears the war could spill over into a broader regional conflict.
Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, a New York–based strategic advisory firm and an adjunct fellow at The Washington Institute, spoke with RFE/RL's Vazha Taberidze about the likely objectives in the conflict for both sides and what may happen if those aren't achieved.
RFE/RL: What's at stake in this confrontation? What are the strategic objectives of each side?
Michael Knights: The minimal US-Israeli objectives are that Iran's offensive military capability to affect environments outside of Iran has to be reduced to an absolutely maximal extent.
That means that the missile program is crippled for the long term. There's no aircraft available, as few helicopters as possible, no navy, no major long-range rocket systems, [and] ground force capabilities are greatly degraded. That's the minimum.
The bonus would be if the regime begins to crumble and there is ideally an inside-out change of government, meaning a change of government starting in Tehran, not a change of government starting in the provinces. This is why the president of the United States has been essentially begging Iranians to take over institutions and rise up within the cities.
But what we're starting to see is the other alternative happening, which is the crumbling of the regime from the outside, from Iranian Kurdistan, from the edges. That's not as attractive an outcome for anybody because it can start to break the country up and result in significant civil war-type conditions.
I don't think the Trump administration is going to back off without achieving its minimum objectives, which is an unprecedented destruction of the Iranian regime's military war machine and repressive institutions.
RFE/RL: Does the United States have a Plan B if the chosen strategy to achieve those objectives doesn't yield the desired results?
Knights: I think Plan B is to do the destruction and then to stop the operation and to leave the Israelis to continually go back and mow the grass as if Iran is a new Lebanon.
If you look at the Israelis after they defeated Hezbollah, they go back whenever they want and they prevent reconstitution. At this point, that would be a feasible option for the Israelis.
So one end point here is that the US only achieves its minimum objectives of taking down Iranian military capabilities. And from that point onward the Israelis just conduct an endless campaign between the wars over Iran, entering whenever they want, destroying any target that they detect. They do a sort of death of a thousand cuts against the regime over a longer period of time, and they foment uprisings at the edges of the Iranian state.
That objective doesn't sound so attractive to the US and to the Gulf states. So they're wondering: Is it just worth carrying on right now and pushing all the way through to the end and seeing if we can get a change of government right now? And it's done and dusted within weeks instead of months or years.
In Venezuela, it was very rapid. We had the Delcy government stepping up after Maduro stepped down, and they demonstrated subservience to the US. The US is recognizing that this option doesn't seem to be available in Iran. And as a result, if you can't overthrow this government, you are stuck with this situation for the long term.
RFE/RL: How big are the advantages that the US and Israel possess?
Knights: In conventional military terms, Iran is a house with no roof right now. The Israelis and the US will have full freedom of movement for the foreseeable future, maybe forever at this point.
Once it's at this point, the Israelis will never stop going back on a monthly basis until that regime is gone. It is bigger than Lebanon, but it's also very important to the Israelis. And they now have the capability to keep intervening for the foreseeable future.
What's at stake here is really the whole future of the region. We're at a dividing line right now where the post-1979 experience of the region can be fundamentally changed. And President Trump, you can tell he's obsessed with the idea that Iran can become a friend. I think the Trump people see Iran as a tragic waste of an amazing market and an amazing potential partner. So they want it over because they think that there's a lot to do there potentially.
RFE/RL: If Iran, maybe at a modest rate, is still able to continue firing, and if it adds even more drones to the mix, it could turn into a longer-term regional war. What would be the implications of that?
Knights: It's a scenario, for sure. At this point, what seems to be happening to try and head off that scenario is two things: The Gulf states themselves, instead of being noncombatants, which is what they're aiming to be, are coming to combatant status, and they themselves are now starting to police further out the counter-drone line.
What they're also likely to do is bring US manned aircraft forward from Jordan. That will provide a much thicker defense screen, particularly against drones over the Gulf itself. So there are things we haven't done yet which can still be used.
At the moment the Gulf states are using their most expensive assets to shoot down Iranian missiles. But there are a lot cheaper assets we haven't utilized yet because the Gulf states chose to tell us: No, go base over Jordan and Israel and Cyprus. Don't be in the Gulf littoral itself. Please don't bring your combat aircraft forward. So we might all see a change in that regard.
But let's just assume the worst-case scenario and that doesn't happen. The Iranians have deeper magazines than us. They manage to keep shooting, which is quite possible. The Huthis certainly did.
A couple of things then. One is that it's going to get very expensive to use Hormuz. It already is. The US is going to have to commit to something like the reflagging system from the Iran-Iraq War era and ensuring individual cargoes. So it's going to get expensive. Trump is not going to like that.
And the Gulf states are not going to like ongoing strikes that last for weeks instead of days. So it's fair to say that we're in a race right now.
RFE/RL: Finally, what's at stake for Russia and China?
Knights: Easy: same as with Venezuela. The problem with Russia and China's great power competition is they don't have power-projection capabilities. As a result, when something is happening far away, like Venezuela, or even as far away as Iran, they simply have no hard-power capability to affect the result. There's still a US hard power advantage at a continental range that the Russians and the Chinese don't have. Their soft power is extraordinary. But in this case it doesn't help a partner.
And everyone can see that Assad in Syria went down despite Russian support. Iran went down despite Russian and Chinese support. Venezuela, Maduro went down, as well. That's the reality.
Trump Says US To Play Role In Choosing Iran's Next Leader As Conflict Widens
President Donald Trump said Washington will help choose the next leader of Iran as US and Israeli forces continued air strikes amid growing concerns of a broader conflict after drones launched from Iran struck Azerbaijan and Israel pushed into southern Lebanon.
With the United States and Israel currently engaged in a sixth day of war against Iran, the number of countries in the region to suffer Tehran's retaliatory strikes, which have targeted both military and civilian infrastructure, grew again on March 5.
Trump, speaking to Reuters in a phone interview, said he wants to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader, while ruling out Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - a hardliner who has been considered a favorite to succeed his father.
"We want to be involved in the process of choosing the person who is going to lead Iran into the future," he was quoted by the agency as saying.
"We don't have to go back every five years and do this again and again...Somebody that's going to be great for the people, great for the country."
The supreme leader was killed last weekend in air strikes as US and Israeli military operations pummeled the country.
Since then, a steady barrage of strikes have decimated Iran's military, communications infrastructure, and other key facilities across the country.
Iran has retaliated with attacks on US military bases across the Middle East, dragging Arab Gulf states -- and others such as Turkey and Azerbaijan -- onto the frontlines of a war they have long tried to avoid.
Iran's neighbor Azerbaijan, which has longstanding ties with Israel, reported attacks launched from Iranian territory on March 5.
Two people were injured after drones have struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan autonomous region, with one damaging the region's airport and a second landing near a school, according to Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry.
President Ilham Aliyev said that "Iran committed an act of terror against the territory of Azerbaijan, against the state of Azerbaijan" with the attack, while the Foreign Ministry said Baku "reserves the right to respond."
Later in the day, Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that the country had targeted Azerbaijan.
Millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran. Azerbaijan is also one of the main oil suppliers to Israel, while Israel has been a key defense partner for Baku for years.
Many in Azerbaijan see Israel's military supplies as critical during country's campaign to regain control of the Karabakh region from Armenia.
A day earlier, a ballistic missile launched from Iran was heading toward Turkish airspace and was intercepted by NATO air defense systems, according to Turkish officials.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte condemned Iran but said the incident does not provide immediate reason to trigger the alliance's mutual defense clause, Article 5.
"The most important thing is that our adversaries have seen yesterday that NATO is so strong and so vigilant, and even more vigilant, if possible, since Saturday," Rutte said on March 5, referring to when the US-Israeli strikes began on February 28.
Earlier, a State Department spokesman said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to discuss recent developments and had pledged "full support" for the NATO ally.
Ukraine To Provide Expertise Against Iran's Drones
As air travel disruptions continued across the Middle East with Iran firing missiles and drones against Israel and other regional countries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his offers to provide support in countering Tehran's Shahed drones were accepted.
"We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection against Shaheds in the Middle East region," Zelenskyy said on his social media on March 5.
Tehran has long been an ally of Russia, supplying it with military equipment and technology and fueling Moscow's war effort against Ukraine. Zelenskyy said earlier that Russia's military had used at least 57,000 Shahed drones in attacks on his country, including against its civilian and energy infrastructure.
Now, the Ukrainian president said Kyiv will help its partners with expertise: "I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can guarantee the required security."
Ukraine, which has just entered the fifth year of repelling Russia's full-scale invasion, has been suggesting to share its experience in defending against Iranian-made drones since the first Iranian attacks across the Gulf.
Asked on the matter, US President Donald Trump, who has previously criticized some of the European leaders for failing to provide enough support for US military actions said he'll take "any assistance from any country."
Trump: US Holds 'Strong Position'
Trump on March 4 vowed that there would be no let up with the joint air campaign that has killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other security, military, and political leaders.
He added that Tehran's arsenal of ballistic missiles was being "wiped out rapidly."
Trump has said he ordered the attack on Iran to prevent the country from developing a nuclear weapon but has also said he wanted Tehran to cease its ballistic missile program and to end violence against anti-government protesters, thousands of whom were killed in a brutal crackdown in recent weeks.
Seeking to counter concerns of American '"boots on the ground" in the war, the White House on March 4 said deployment of US ground troops in Iran is "not part of the plan for this operation at this time."
Instead, Trump backed the Kurds in launching their own offensive, saying he thinks it’s "wonderful that they want to do that." Asked by Reuters if the United States would offer air cover for such an operation, Trump refused to answer.
Earlier in the week, sources told Axios that the president spoke with Kurdish leaders, who sought consultation on whether and how to attack Tehran's security forces.
Netanyahu Claims 'Historic Gains'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the two allies had made "historic gains" in their war against Iran, which is in its sixth day.
"Israel and the United States have together made historic gains to protect our citizens and the civilized world," government spokeswoman Shosh Bedrosian said in a video message.
As Bedrosian also claimed the attack on Iran was necessary as Tehran was rebuilding its nuclear weapons program in "new underground bunkers" and that there were signs it planned "to attack Israel and US forces in the region," without providing details.
Separately, Israel stepped up its attacks on strongholds of Iran-allied Hezbollah forces in Lebanon after the group launched missiles into northern Israel. According to Israeli military, Tel Aviv's goal was to create "a buffer...between our residents and any threat,"
French President Emmanuel Macron on March 4 said he urged Netanyahu to refrain from launching a ground offensive in Lebanon.
"I reiterated the necessity for Hezbollah to immediately cease its attacks on Israel and beyond. This escalatory strategy is a grave mistake that puts the entire region at risk," Macron wrote on X.
"I also called on the Israeli Prime Minister to preserve the integrity of Lebanese territory and to refrain from launching a ground offensive. It is crucial for the parties to return to the ceasefire agreement," Macron added.
Reports indicate that Israeli ground forces have already crossed the border into Lebanon, although details remain unclear.
On March 5, Israeli military warned residents in Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate immediately. "Save your lives and evacuate your residences immediately," Israel's military forces spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, RFE/RL correspondent Alex Raufoglu in Washington
- By RFE/RL,
- Ray Furlong and
- Current Time
Israeli Purim Celebrations Defy Iranian Missiles
Israelis were celebrating Purim with singing, dancing, and costume parties on March 4. When the festivities in Jerusalem were interrupted by an air-raid alert, people headed for the shelters and kept partying there -- determined to maintain normal life amid war.
- By Ray Furlong
In Bunkers And On Streets, Israelis Celebrate Purim Amid Repeated Missile Strikes
JERUSALEM -- Crowds of civilians in costumes were literally dancing in the streets as they marked the Purim holiday here when air-raid sirens rang out. Immediately, people streamed toward the shelters -- some clutching babies, others drinks.
On this occasion, the shelter was a nearby underground parking lot where revelers continued the party, spinning around with arms linked and singing vigorously. One man was attached to an inflatable horse. A child was dressed as a chick, a parent as a penguin.
It was a jarring moment where a high-spirited party collided with war.
"It's definitely scary but I think that we know we're going to be OK. It's happened before," said Rebecca, a 20-something American woman with a 1-year-old child in her arms who moved to Israel three years ago.
"This is part of living in Israel. You know, you got to just take the punches," she told RFE/RL.
Her husband, Daniel, said the incoming Iranian ballistic missile attack was "symbolic" given that Purim marks a failed attempt to wipe out Jews during the Persian Empire.
"We have rockets raining down on us. It's very comforting to know that God is on our side and that history repeats itself, and we're going to be redeemed again," he said.
Israel marked day five of its conflict with Iran with intermittent alarms but no reported injuries or fatalities. During an earlier attack, sheltering in a different bunker, low thuds and booms were heard as air defense intercepted missiles.
On each occasion, it was not long before people's phones buzzed with all-clear messages on their warning apps. The party in the parking lot simply moved back upstairs and into the late afternoon sunshine.
Within minutes, the streets were again filled with hooting car horns and inebriated cries of greeting. There was a heady mix of alcohol, adrenaline, relief, and defiance.
"The war is a little bit crazy. With the war and everything, we're just trying to celebrate and we're being bombed -- we've got to run into the shelters every couple of minutes," Jerusalem resident Shimon Barenen told RFE/RL.
"We're just trying to keep up the spirit," he added.
Later, at a roadside Lebanese restaurant on the road toward Tel Aviv, there was a more sober mood as around 20 people crammed into a tiny bunker. A woman cried softly, her husband cradling her in his arms. A family of American tourists worried how they would get out of Israel and home to California. Again, there was the thud of missiles being intercepted overhead.
The mood only lightened when an Indian TV journalist backed into the room, speaking excitedly into a phone on a selfie stick, drawing groans and laughs in equal measure.
On this occasion, the remains of the Iranian missile were nearby. Emergency services fought their way past early evening traffic heading to and from Purim celebrations, with police officers frantically gesturing to drivers to clear a path. A roadblock to stop people driving in the direction of the crash site snarled the traffic further.
Once again, this incident passed off without any injuries or deaths. Israel's air defense are largely holding firm so far against missiles from Iran and rockets and drones fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States.
Israel's wars with its regional neighbors have usually been characterized by asymmetrical levels of casualties, offensive capacity, and air defenses -- in Israel's favor.
This time is no exception. As of March 4, the country had suffered 12 civilian fatalities, mostly in a single strike at Beit Shemesh that was a direct hit on a housing block.
The HRANA human rights group, which monitors events in Iran, says that more than 1,000 Iranian civilians have been killed in the Israeli and US air campaign that began on February 28.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 4 that US and Israeli air forces had now achieved close to "uncontested" control of Iranian air space.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said any new leader appointed in Iran to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader after his death in an air strike on February 28, the first day of the campaign, "would be an unequivocal target for elimination."
The military balance is clearly in favor of Israel and the United States. Yet Iran retains, for now, the ability to hit back.
As night fell on March 4, there were yet more sirens. Israelis have lived through this for years, especially during the war in Gaza with Hamas -- also regarded by the United States and Israel as a terrorist group.
But, said a 37-year-old engineer who gave her name only as Anna, "we are not used to it." Anna told RFE/RL she doesn't have a shelter in her building, so she comes to a building across the street to seek safety.
When it was Hamas attacking, she said, she stopped bothering. But Iran, she said, is a much greater threat. "It's really scary."
US Confirms Sinking Iranian Ship, Says Tehran Firing Fewer Missiles
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed a US submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka as military officials said Iran is firing fewer missiles at targets around the Gulf region due to its decimated capabilities to wage war.
Speaking at a briefing on March 4, Hegseth called the attack -- which left at least 87 seamen dead with dozens of others injured or missing -- "quiet death." Sri Lankan authorities said 32 Iranian sailors were rescued.
"An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo," Hegseth said.
Hegseth said the United States has the resources to continue the campaign, which started on February 28 in tandem with strikes by Israel, indefinitely if needed, saying Washington would take "all the time we need" to secure victory.
In response, Iran has launched missile and drone barrages at states around the Persian Gulf that have fanned fears the war could spread throughout the region.
Highlighting those fears, a ballistic missile launched from Iran headed toward Turkish airspace before being intercepted by NATO air defense systems.
The military alliance, to which Turkey is a member, condemned the incident, saying it "stands firmly with all Allies."
At the same briefing as Hegseth, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran was launching some 86 percent fewer ballistic missiles than it did on February 28, the first day of the conflict. Drone launches were down almost as much, he added.
"We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense," Caine said.
Hegseth echoed those comments, adding that coalition forces expect to gain complete control of Iranian airspace within about a week, which would allow expanded bombing operations across the country.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says she doubts Iran's capacity to sustain its pace of attacks on countries across the Middle East given its decimated military following the 12-day war last year with Israel and the current US-Israeli campaign.
She told RFE/RL in an interview in Warsaw on March 4 that "Iranian capacities are not endless, especially if also the big friends are not supporting them."
"Americans have also said that their target is the missile launchers and missile factories, then their capacity to cause harm is also and maybe more limited than they want to show. So this is always also a fight for narratives," Kallas said.
Kallas Says Iranian Capacity To Target Gulf States 'Unsustainable'
WARSAW -- EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says she doubts Iran's capacity to sustain its pace of attacks on countries across the Middle East given its decimated military following the 12-day war last year with Israel and the current US-Israeli campaign launched against it over the weekend.
"We have to understand that the Iranian capacities are not endless, especially if also the big friends are not supporting them," she told RFE/RL in an interview conducted in Warsaw on March 4.
"Americans have also said that their target is the missile launchers and missile factories, then their capacity to cause harm is also and maybe more limited than they want to show. So this is always also a fight for narratives."
Expanding on the answer about Tehran's allies, the former Estonian prime minister was quick to point out that Russia, which has long been seen as a key ally of Tehran, hasn't rushed to aid the Islamic regime.
"What we have to see is that when Iran is fighting, they are fighting alone with their proxies. Russia is not supporting them," Kallas added.
US President Donald Trump said on March 3 that Iran "is going to be in for a lot of hurt" in the coming days, adding that "the big-scale hitting goes now."
Operation Epic Fury, as the mission is called by US military officials, represents the largest US buildup in the Middle East in a generation with over 50,000 US troops and 200 fighter aircraft. According to the US military, 17 Iranian naval vessels have been destroyed and nearly 2,000 targets across Iran hit in the last four days alone.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has estimated that nearly 1,100 Iranian civilians, including 181 children, have been killed in the air strikes.
In response, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at US military bases and key commercial sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar -- all American allies -- since the conflict broke out.
The European Union, meanwhile, has struggled to keep a unified position on the war. The E3 -- France, Germany, and the United Kingdom -- have indicated they might assist the United States militarily if necessary, while Spain has questioned the legality of the strikes on Iran.
When asked about what outcome the EU sees after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the air strikes, the EU top diplomat was cautiously optimistic that things eventually could improve for the country.
"Now the question is, of course, what comes next? Is it possible that there's going to be a democratic Iran? I mean, not necessarily immediately, but still there's opportunities for the people if the repressive regime is weakened," she said.
With the EU's foreign ministers set for an online meeting with their counterparts from the Gulf Cooperation Council on March 5, Brussels is likely to have to grapple with more immediate challenges to the bloc such as already soaring energy prices and potential waves of refugees.
"There are threats to disruption of supply chains and trade routes, there are also risks for migration pressure that is coming toward us because people will want to flee war. These are all the risks that we have to really take into account," Kallas said.
- By Frud Bezhan
A New Front In Iran War? US Considers Arming Iranian Kurdish Opposition Groups
The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, in a move that could open a new front in the war on Iran and risks igniting a civil war in the Middle East country.
Several Iranian opposition Kurdish groups are based in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region and have been waging a low-level insurgency against Tehran for years. Some have demanded autonomy within Iran while others are fighting for secession from the Islamic republic.
The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to Iranian Kurdish groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in the western part of the country comes as the United States and Israel wage a massive aerial bombardment of Iran.
The US aim, experts say, would be to stretch Tehran's military resources, weaken the state's grip on power, and foment an uprising inside Iran, a multiethnic country of some 90 million people.
Iran's clerical rulers, despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military leaders, have not capitulated or fragmented and maintain control of the country since the joint US-Israeli air campaign began on February 28.
"The main goal is to make sure the Islamic republic starts losing control of some areas of the country," said Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel.
"The assessment may be that by doing so, other minorities as well as the broader opposition may be inspired. Some elements within the regime who may be tempted to defect or flee may also see this as a sign that they should do so now, before the situation spins fully out of control."
Kurds make up around 10 percent of Iran's population and primarily live in the country's west along the border with Iraq. Iran has long been accused of suppressing and discriminating against the country's ethnic minorities, including Kurds.
Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said possible ground incursions by Iranian Kurdish groups into western Iran could stretch Tehran's military resources.
"If the Kurdish factions were to stage a concerted series of attacks, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] would have to seek reinforcements," said Bruchmann, referring to the elite branch of Iran's armed forces.
"However, that would weaken their posture in core cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, or Karaj. It would thus create a dilemma for the regime where to send sparse reinforcements in times when coordination is also more difficult. It is this dilemma and thinning out of forces that is the operational goal."
The risks of the United States possibly arming Iranian opposition Kurds groups are considerable, experts say.
"Washington could trigger a civil war and the fragmentation of the country, which could have lasting consequences," said Horowitz.
Many of these groups were previously armed but have since laid down their weapons.
"If they engage in a long-term war against Iran, and the US support disappears, this will prove very dangerous for them," said Horowitz.
The United States recently cut support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that was a key US partner for years in the war against the Islamic State extremist group.
Longstanding Disputes
In anticipation of a US attack on Iran, five Iranian opposition Kurdish groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan announced a new political coalition last month aimed at overthrowing the Islamic republic and ultimately achieving Kurdish autonomy.
The new coalition includes the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Khabat), and the Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan. The coalition does not include several Kurdish political heavyweights such as the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan.
Iran has sporadically conducted military strikes against the exiled Kurdish groups, which Tehran has designated as terrorist organizations and accused them of serving American and Israeli interests. Those attacks could intensify if the United States arms the groups.
On March 4, Iran launched rocket attacks at a camp near the border operated by the PAK, the group said, adding that one person was killed and three wounded. A day earlier, drone strikes struck a base run by the PDKI in northern Iraq.
Experts say it is unclear if the various Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq can settle their deep differences and have the willingness and ability to fight against the Islamic republic.
"There are longstanding disputes, and they need to prove solidarity on the field," said Bruchmann. "It is less about the potential impact of some better or more weapons from the US, but rather the will to fight the Iranian regime decisively and coordinate military attacks among them that will decide whether the Kurds will add a ground element to the US-Israeli air campaign."
- By Frud Bezhan
Iran War Descends Into Regional Conflict With Global Spillovers
In just a few days, the United States and Israel's massive bombardment of Iran has sprawled into a regional war that has dragged in key America allies in the Middle East and sent global energy prices soaring.
Iran has responded to the joint US and Israeli campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, by unleashing unprecedented barrages of missiles and drones at US military and diplomatic facilities and striking key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
Fighting an existential threat, experts say, Tehran is aiming to raise the economic, political, and military pain of the conflict for the United States and secure an end to hostilities.
"Tehran appears to be wagering on [US President] Donald Trump's reluctance to become entangled in messy and costly wars, seeking to demonstrate that it possesses the capability to prolong the conflict and make it increasingly complex and expensive," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Incurring Direct Costs On US
Iran is imposing direct costs on the United States, which has so far lost six service members in the war.
Iranian ballistic missiles and drones have hit at least six of the estimated 19 US military facilities across the Middle East that house around 40,000 American troops. That includes sites in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Iraq.
Tehran has also targeted US diplomatic facilities in the region. The US Embassy in Riyadh was struck by two suspected Iranian drones on March 3, causing a fire. A fire was also reported near the US Embassy in Kuwait on March 2 following Iranian drone attacks.
Global Energy Rattled
Iran is also pressuring the United States by targeting Washington's Arab partners. Iranian attacks on the Gulf states have not been limited to US military installations. Major airports, luxury hotels, and key energy facilities have also been struck.
Iranian drones targeted a power plant and energy facility in Qatar on March 2, leading one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas to stop production. A key oil refinery in Saudi Arabia was partially shut down after Iranian drones targeted the facility.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, and vessels have rerouted since the start of the war. About a fifth of the world's oil supply flows through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.
The combination of attacks on key energy facilities and disruption to shipping in the Persian Gulf, a region that produces around 40 percent of the world's oil, has sent the prices of oil and natural gas soaring and raised fears over global supplies.
New War Front
Iran's key nonstate ally, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, opened a second front in the war when it launched rocket and drone attacks on Israel on March 2. Israel has retaliated with air strikes that have killed scores of people and sent in additional forces into southern Lebanon on March 3.
Other members of Iran's so-called axis of resistance -- Tehran's regional network of armed proxies and partners -- have pledged to join the war, including Yemen's Huthi rebels and pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq.
The Huthi rebels have threatened to withdraw from a cease-fire deal reached with the United States last year. The armed group agreed to halt their missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. In exchange, the United States pledged to stop air strikes targeting the group.
"The potential entry -- or deeper engagement -- of Hezbollah and possibly the Huthis would significantly expand escalation boundaries," said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University on March 2.
"Such involvement would both increase pressure for de-escalation internationally and raise the economic and security costs for Israel and Gulf states. This aligns with Tehran's longstanding doctrine of expanding the geographic scope of confrontation in order to dilute direct pressure on the Iranian homeland."
Kian Sharifi contributed to this report.
- By RFE/RL
Explosions Seen In Multiple Middle East Cities As US, Israel Launch Strikes On Iran
Smoke rises from an explosion in Tehran.
Images captured on February 28 show blasts in Iran, Israel, and several other Middle Eastern countries as US President Donald Trump says "major combat operations" are underway against Iran.
- By RFE/RL
Middle East On Edge As Trump Launches 'Major Combat Operation' Against Iran
US President Donald Trump said Washington had begun “major combat operations” against Iran, putting the Middle East on edge as air raid sirens wailed across the region amid retaliatory strikes by Tehran.
In a video statement posted on social media, Trump said on February 28 his objective in ordering the bombing of Iran -- which was done in concert with Israeli forces -- was “to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”
"I do not make this statement lightly. The Iranian regime seeks to kill," Trump said in the video announcing the operation, named "Epic Fury" by the Pentagon.
"The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties that often happens in war, but we're doing this, not for now. We're doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission."
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) responded to the US and Israeli strikes by launching several waves of drones and ballistic missiles against Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said interception operations were underway and later reported further waves of missiles were headed toward Israel.
Iran also fired missiles at targets in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Bahrain. State media in the United Arab Emirates said one person had been killed in Abu Dhabi, but gave no details.
Iranian media reported explosions in several cities, including Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Qom, Lorestan, and Chabahar.
Video and photo images showed at least one large plume of smoke billowing over the capital.
Trump accused Tehran of attempting to rebuild its nuclear program after the United States bombed key facilities during a 12-day war between Iran and Israel last June. He said the United States also aimed to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and “annihilate” its navy.
“The hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump added, in an apparent message to the Iranian public.
Trump had previously vowed that “help is on the way” during the deadly January protests against Iran’s clerical establishment, in which thousands were reported killed. Tehran suppressed the unrest and accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating it.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X that Trump continues to "closely monitor" the situation along with his national security team and had spoken during the day to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone.
The strikes mark a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions and all but quash hopes for a diplomatic resolution between Tehran and Washington over Iran’s nuclear program.
US and Iranian officials held a fresh round of Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva on February 26 in what was seen as a last-ditch attempt to avoid a major military conflict between the foes.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who has a history of mediating talks between two, said he saw "significant progress" and announced that technical level discussions will take place next week in Vienna.
He said he was "dismayed" by the strikes against Iran and that they "undermined" the peace process.
The United Nations Security Council is expected to hold an emergency meeting following the attacks. The UN said the session, scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. New York time, will address the “situation in the Middle East.”
"If we consider the experience of several years of negotiations, including the most recent round, it has shown that the Islamic republic will not retreat from its positions. This stance, in practice, causes other countries to feel threatened. Specifically, the Islamic republic’s missile program can pose significant risks," Leyla Morovati, a political analyst with expertise in Iranian domestic and foreign affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
"Ultimately, some of these nations may feel compelled to align with these attacks -- even if not directly -- to see the Islamic republic severely weakened and its missile program dismantled or restricted. In other words, they will be moving in alignment with US and Israeli interests.”
Explosions were first reported in central Tehran, with images and videos circulating on social media showing thick plumes of smoke rising above the capital.
The Fars news agency, affiliated with the IRGC, said “several missiles” struck Daneshgah (University) and Jomhuri (Republic) streets. Iran’s state broadcaster, IRINN, confirmed what it described as joint “US-Israeli aggression in Tehran,” airing social media footage of smoke billowing from downtown areas.
Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Mohammed Pakpur are thought to have died in Israeli attacks, two sources familiar with Israel's military operations and one regional source said, according to Reuters.
Sirens sounded across Israel following the strike, and the IDF instructed residents to remain near protected areas, describing the alert as a precaution against possible retaliatory missile fire.
Trump warned that some Americans "may be lost" as a result of the operation, though senior US officials told reporters that so far there have been no reported US casualties from Iran’s retaliatory strikes against US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, UAE, and Qatar.
He also urged Iranians to rise up against the Islamic republic's leadership once the military action has concluded.
"When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations," Trump said.
Jennifer Gavito, former deputy assistant secretary of state for Iran, Iraq, and Public Diplomacy, told RFE/RL that Iran’s initial response to what seems to be an explicit call for regime change from the US and Israel "demonstrates that the regime believes this is an existential crisis and that it has nothing to lose."
"Given that, its reactions we are already seeing will be less predictable, more escalatory, and more likely to spark region-wide instability,” she said.
Kazakh, Uzbek Leaders Seek Trump Approval With Gaza Peace Pledges
The decision by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to join US allies in the Arab world in providing cash and other help -- possibly including troops -- for the reconstruction of Gaza marks another moment in efforts to forge a new, close relationship with US President Donald Trump.
The move follows last November's 5+1 meeting in Washington, in which the Central Asian nations agreed trade, diplomatic, and mineral deals to strengthen ties.
At the inaugural Board of Peace summit on February 19, Kazakhstan promised substantial funding to be administered through the World Bank’s Gaza Reconstruction and Development Fund.
It also said it would deploy troops to an International Stabilization Force (ISF), including security personnel and a field hospital staffed by military medical experts. By doing so, Kazakhstan joins a small group of countries such as Indonesia, Kosovo, and Albania, that have publicly promised peacekeepers.
For its part, Uzbekistan emphasized previously announced plans to redevelop a specific slice of territory in Gaza.
Former Kazakh diplomat Dulat Baqyshev told RFE/RL that both nations were investing in the relationship with Washington -- and aiming for a concrete return on their money.
“Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan need US support. It’s been 35 years since our independence. Had any US president visited our region? No," he said.
Since achieving independence in 1991, the countries of Central Asia have sought to balance out diplomatic and economic influence from China and Russia.
"Our independence, our sovereignty becomes stronger when it’s supported by the US," Baqyshev said.
Kazakhstan Brings 'Boots And Brains'
For now, the pledges made in Washington remain just that -- promises that may, or may not, be delivered on later.
But Astana would bring prior experience from United Nations–mandated peacekeeping operations since 2014, including deployments under the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), giving it an established track record in multinational stabilization efforts.
Kazakhstan also pledged wheat supplies to stabilize food security in Gaza and 500 university scholarships for Palestinian students over the next five years, aiming to rebuild Gaza’s professional class.
Still, no specific financial contribution or details on the number of Kazakh soldiers have been published yet, leaving some uncertainty about the scale of commitments.
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev presented plans for an “Uzbekistan Quarter” in Gaza, with housing, schools, kindergartens, health-care facilities, and community centers.
The plans sit alongside other Gaza reconstruction plans pushed by Washington, which present the war-ravaged region as a luxury holiday riviera. Uzbekistan says its plans draw on experience it has gained rebuilding earthquake‑affected areas in Turkey.
No specific financial amount or the financial sources for this project have been made public.
Great Expectations
While the actual sums were not made clear, Trump signaled that he expected significant financial commitments from participating countries.
Both the Uzbek and Kazakh leaders echoed the US president's positive tone.
Mirziyoyev described Trump’s plan as “bold and historic,” while Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev emphasized that “working together on this initiative is a step toward a safer, more stable region.”
Toqaev also called for a peace prize to be created, named for Trump.
“For Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this is about prestige and reputation, and also about closer relations with the United States," Uzbek political analyst Alisher Ilkhamov told RFE/RL.
“Trump expects them to be willing to pay for this opportunity, and they seem prepared to do so,” he added.
Ilkhamov suggested that Kazakhstan might also have an immediate, specific aim: U.S. pressure on Ukraine to stop attacks on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, a key conduit for Kazakh oil exports.
Strikes in recent months have had a major impact on an important source of Kazakh budget revenue.
“It is no coincidence that Toqaev has gone out of his way to flatter Trump for the second time,” he said.
- By Amos Chapple
Azadi Tower: Architect Watches From Exile As Beloved Iranian Landmark Coopted By Regime
When images from the 47th anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution were published around the world on February 11, Hossein Amanat's heart sank. The imposing backdrop to the missiles and drones paraded at the Tehran event was the Azadi Tower, which the Iranian-born architect designed more than half a century ago.
"I feel so sorry," Amanat said of his most beloved work being coopted by the same government that once put him on a death list. "They are so unjust that they use anything to give themselves legitimacy."
Amanat was 24 years old when he won a 1966 contest to design a monumental gateway to Tehran. Originally named the Shahyad (Shah's Memorial) Tower, the 45-meter landmark was to be completed in time for the grand celebrations planned by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to mark the 2,500th year of the Persian Empire.
Today the monument is widely regarded as the most iconic example of modern architecture in Iran, serving as visual shorthand for Tehran comparable to the Eiffel Tower in Paris. But Amanat says he had no sense of the structure's significance until he saw the finished project with his own eyes in 1971.
"I was working with a friend of mine in the basement [of the tower]," the 83-year-old recalled. "Somebody came and said: 'The scaffolds are off. Do you want to have a look?'"
Walking beneath the monument, Amanat told RFE/RL by phone, "I had goosebumps all over my body…. Usually I know what I'm designing, but going under that arch and looking up, it really overwhelmed me." The outcome, he said, had exceeded his own vision.
When the shah held a ceremony to open the monument in October 1971, its young architect stood and watched far from the assembled foreign dignitaries, which included the younger brother of Japan's Emperor Hirohito and Imelda Marcos, the first lady of the Philippines.
To Amanat's surprise, he was spotted by the Iranian ruler. "When he approached me he turned to all the kings that were there, especially [the Emperor of Ethiopia] Haile Selassie," Amanat recalled, "and he said, 'This young man has built this building,' and he was full of pride."
After Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979, statues to the shah were torn down throughout the country and a massive demolition effort wiped out a mausoleum to his father. The Shahyad Tower seemed an obvious target for similar treatment, yet it survived and was renamed the Azadi (Freedom) Tower.
Amanat believes there are two reasons the tower was not demolished, despite some in the new regime wanting it gone.
"I think because of the attention to this building, they couldn't [act] against the wish of the people," he said. Additionally, Amanat pointed out that the marble and concrete structure would be "difficult to tear down -- you would have to use a lot of munitions."
Amanat himself was outside Iran when the 1979 revolution swept the country, and he settled in Canada in 1980. He now heads a successful architecture firm in Vancouver designing buildings around the world. But he has kept an eye on the treatment of his tower.
"They have damaged a lot out of lack of knowledge," he said. That damage has included work crews inexplicably tearing up some of the paving stones at the base of the arch. Waterproofing material beneath the stones was destroyed, leading to rainwater trickling into the museum beneath the tower.
Ironically, the monument bearing the name freedom today bristles with cameras. "If they want to put a cable, mostly [for] security cameras for their own spying on people, they drive screws and bolts into the exposed concrete there, which has been poured with great attention," Amanat said.
The architect said the aesthetic of the Azadi Tower was drawn partially from exploring ancient Persian architecture, including the Vakil Mosque in Shiraz.
Gathering inspiration from his own country's heritage was relatively rare in the 1960s, when young Iranian creatives largely looked to the West for inspiration. The tower, Amanat says, "is somehow kind of giving an idea that it is connected to the very deep past, yes. But it is thinking of going forward because of its shape elevating to heaven."
The Azadi Tower was one of the key gathering points for the 2009 protests that swept Iran following a disputed presidential election in June of that year.
Today, the same regime that prompted Amanat -- a member of the persecuted Baha'i faith -- to live in exile after the 1979 revolution still casts a shadow over his work. He is currently working on a shrine to the son of the founder of the religion in Acre, Israel. When Iran traded missile strikes with Israel in 2025, Amanat said foreign workers on the project, including Italian artisans, had to be evacuated, significantly delaying construction.
When asked what his first day in Iran would look like if he were able to return to the country of his birth, Amanat paused for thought before responding.
"I should pay my tributes or respect to the people who have been killed through all this period that I haven't been in Iran. People who have sacrificed themselves for the freedom of this country," he said.
'Robust' US Military Deployment To Gulf Ahead Of Possible Iran Strikes
A diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran could still avoid a military confrontation.
But one of Washington's largest-ever military buildups in the Persian Gulf is rapidly taking shape.
Experts say the deployment is aimed at giving US President Donald Trump military options if he chooses to act on his threats to attack Tehran for failing to make a nuclear deal and violently cracking down on protesters.
Iranian security forces killed thousands of demonstrators in January, after protests erupted in late December 2025 over the sharp collapse of the Iranian currency.
"The gathering of forces is a point of pressure applied by the United States on Iran to come to a negotiated agreement," said Amin Tarzi, professor of strategic studies at Marine Corps War College.
He said that after the buildup, the US military posture in the Gulf is "robust" with "naval and defensive air defense capabilities, plus offensive air components."
He said that in terms of numbers, the US buildup might not be the largest in the region where Washington has fought some of its most recent foreign wars.
Hundreds of thousands of American troops participated in two major US-led operations against Iraq: the 1991 Persian Gulf War, which liberated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which toppled Saddam Hussein's regime.
"The nature of war has changed dramatically, even compared to 2003," Tarzi said. "These are assets that have more capability but a much smaller footprint.
'Massive Armada'
In late January, President Trump reiterated his call for Tehran to face a "far worse" attack than the one aimed at the country in June if it fails to make a deal over its nuclear program.
He said a "massive armada" was heading to Iran and it was able to "rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence".
The fleet is led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, supported by several advanced warships that together form a carrier strike group. Last week, one of the strike group's jets shot down an Iranian drone.
David Des Roches, a professor at Washington's Thayer Marshall Institute, said multi-role ships such as USS Delbert D. Black, USS Mitscher, and USS McFaul are already in the Persian Gulf theater. All of these can launch missile strikes and have advanced naval and air defense capabilities.
On February 10, Trump said he might dispatch a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region to take part in the military action if talks with Iran fail.
Des Roches said the US forces currently around Iran are nimbler. "[The buildup] is much smaller, and it's much easier to scale up and scale down," he said.
He said advances in US military capacity mean it is also possible that Washington can again use strategic B2 bombers just like it used in June 2025 to strike deep inside Iran.
"These can come from the United States or Diego Garcia," he said. In the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, the US shares a joint military base with the United Kingdom.
CENTCOM
The Gulf region is part of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations, where the oil-rich Sunni Arab monarchies of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar have hosted US army, air force, and naval bases. The region is now estimated to have up to 40,000 US troops.
The Al-Udeid air base in Qatar houses CENTCOM's forward headquarters. In June 2025, Iran attempted to target it in retaliation for the US air strikes on its nuclear facilities. The US Navy's Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, from where it secures some of the world's busiest shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
Additional US bases and ships are scattered in Jordan, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean. In Iraq and Syria, the US military presence has mostly been aimed at counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State extremist group.
"The massive increase in naval presence, in air presence, in air defenses, does signal the United States is very serious," said Brian Carter, the research manager at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington.
He said that Washington is bringing in air defense platforms to help defend its bases and US allies from any Iranian attacks.
"The navy fits into that picture as well, because naval ships can be armed with surface-to-air interceptors to shoot down incoming missiles," he said.
Across the Middle East, Washington has beefed up its air and missile defenses.
In recent weeks, it has deployed additional batteries of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile defense systems to the Gulf Arab nations and Jordan. Patriots are effective against low-flying and short-range projectiles. THAAD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitudes.
Carter says that, in contrast to Iran's weak defense capabilities, the US defensive capacity is quite strong because of investments during the past decade.
"That's a kind of important asymmetry that we should keep in mind as we're thinking about strikes going forward," he said.