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The Foreign Militants Among The Ranks Of Syria's New Rulers

Members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham set fire to a photo of ousted Syrian President Bashir al-Assad in Aleppo, northwestern Syria, on November 29.
Members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham set fire to a photo of ousted Syrian President Bashir al-Assad in Aleppo, northwestern Syria, on November 29.

Hundreds of foreign fighters are in the ranks of the Syrian militants who seized power and toppled longtime President Bashar al-Assad, RFE/RL has learned.

Videos posted on social media and verified by RFE/RL show Europeans and Central Asians fighting for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) during the militant group's lightening takeover of Syria this month.

Foreigners comprise only a fraction of the overall fighting force of the estimated 10,000-strong HTS and allied groups. But the presence of battle-hardened and radicalized foreign fighters is seen as a risk to Syria's stability and a security threat in their homelands.

"This will be one of the biggest concerns from a U.S. perspective because they aren't indigenous Syrians," said Aaron Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute. "The U.S. is likely less concerned with the Syrians within HTS."

HTS is a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization that was previously affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The militant Islamist group has pledged tolerance and inclusivity, although concerns remain over its alleged rights abuses and ties to terrorist groups.

'It Was Suicide'

One video verified by RFE/RL shows an Albanian-speaking fighter standing in front of the Citadel of Aleppo in Syria's second-largest city. The video was recorded on November 30, the day HTS captured the northwestern city.

In the video, the unidentified man said the militants were fighting to "remove oppression" in Syria, a reference to the brutal rule of Assad, and described the capture of Aleppo as a "great victory."

The man is seen wearing the insignia of Albanian Tactical, a unit of Xhemati Alban, which is considered a subgroup of HTS and made up of ethnic Albanians mostly from Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia.

"It is a well-structured Islamist jihadist group operating under the HTS umbrella," said Adrian Shtuni, a Washington-based security and radicalization expert.

"Albanian Tactical focuses on specific military skills, including sniper training and explosives, while also providing training for other fighters," Shtuni added. "This demonstrates a shift from being just combatants to becoming a strategic force within HTS."

After Syria's civil war broke out in 2011, hundreds of ethnic Albanians flocked to Syria to join the Islamic State (IS) extremist group and the Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. The Nusra Front was later renamed HTS.

Among them was an ethnic Albanian man from North Macedonia who fought in Syria for four years until 2020 and then returned to Europe.

"I was young, and we were deceived from videos on the Internet," said the man, who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

"Then, we came into contact with some people from Turkey and we left for Syria," added the man, who did not reveal the group he joined. "It was suicide. We barely managed to escape. I'm trying to forget everything and live a normal life."

North Macedonia's Interior Ministry said at least four citizens are actively fighting for armed groups in Syria and neighboring Iraq.

Albania estimates around 30 of its citizens are currently in Syria.

Radicalized Foreigners

Eva Dumani was 8 years old when her father, Shkelzen, took her to Syria in 2013 and joined IS.

The whereabouts of Eva, now 19, are unknown, although the orphans and widows of IS militants are often held in camps by rival groups.

Xhetan Ndregjoni, Eva's uncle, said he speaks to his niece sporadically, "even though she is very reluctant to reveal her exact whereabouts or situation."

"She writes a word, and then another after some hours or days," said Ndregjoni, speaking from Albania. "There have been a few times that I wanted to go to Syria and bring her back, but I don't know if she is under pressure, doesn't want to leave, or is radicalized."

Another European who came to fight in Syria is a 35-year-old man from Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The man, who has lived in Syria since 2013, is among the several dozen Bosnians believed to be residing in Syria.

Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, he described himself as a former "hippie" who turned to Salafism, an ultraradical sect under Sunni Islam. He said he moved to Syria to fight the Assad government and help "liberate the people of Syria."

"I was in several groups," he said, without specifying. "I think it was easier for me because I had no concept of war."

The man said he gave up fighting in 2018, marrying a local woman and transitioning to civilian life in the northwestern province of Idlib, a HTS stronghold.

Many Europeans who joined armed groups in Syria were radicalized online or lured by local recruiters. Others were motivated by religious beliefs and the idea of jihad, or holy war. Some were attracted by the money offered by militant groups.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters drive along a street in Aleppo on November 29.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters drive along a street in Aleppo on November 29.

'Major Trouble'

Another video verified by RFE/RL showed dozens of armed men in military fatigues in the Syrian village of Deir Semaan, the site of a Christian monastery located around 30 kilometers northwest of Aleppo.

One of the men in the video is a Tajik-speaking fighter who claims the group captured the area from "infidels." The footage was recorded on December 3.

It is unclear to which group the Tajik-speaking fighter belongs. But several smaller militant groups allied with the HTS consist of fighters from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, including Katibat al-Imam al-Bukhari and the Turkistan Brigade.

A Tajik security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the footage of Tajiks in Syria is "deeply disturbing" and a potential "time bomb."

"The videos remind us once again that these individuals can come back to Tajikistan one day and cause major trouble here," the official said.

Among the estimated 400 Tajiks in Syria are believed to be brothers Anvar Isomiddinov and Muhammadjon Isomiddinov, who are both in their 30s. Natives of the village of Chordeh in northern Tajikistan, they left for Syria around 2014.

A relative of the men, who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons, said the family lost contact with them several years ago.

"The last time the family spoke with Anvar and Muhammadjon, they pleaded with the brothers to come back," the relative said. "But they cut off the conversation and never called back again."

With contributions from Mumin Ahmadi in Prague, Mahmudjon Rahmatzoda in Tajikistan, Jetmira Delia in Albania, Enis Shaqiri in North Macedonia, and Arton Konushevci in Kosovo.

NOTE: This article has been amended to correct Eva Dumani's current age.

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Explainer: Looking Back At The Israel-Hamas War

Explainer: Looking Back At The Israel-Hamas War
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A landmark deal has been agreed between Israel and Hamas, proscribed as a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries. The war has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East.

Israel, Hamas Agree Cease-Fire Deal, Although Much 'Uncertainty' Remains

Relatives and friends of people killed and abducted by Hamas and taken into Gaza, react to the cease-fire announcement as they take part in a demonstration in Tel Aviv, Israel, on January 15.
Relatives and friends of people killed and abducted by Hamas and taken into Gaza, react to the cease-fire announcement as they take part in a demonstration in Tel Aviv, Israel, on January 15.

Israel and the U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas have reached a multiphase cease-fire deal that includes the exchange of Israeli hostages for some 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and the delivery of urgent humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

Mediated by Qatar and Egypt, the agreement will go into effect on January 19, according to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. It includes three stages, with the final stage focusing on the reconstruction of Gaza.

The conflict broke out in October 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked settlements in southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages to Gaza.

Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities. The conflict has led to the mass destruction of the territory and the displacement of most of its 2.3 million residents.

What We Know

The details of the agreement have not been formally published, but a clear image has emerged from official comments and media reports based on leaked drafts of the deal.

In the first phase, a six-week cease-fire will begin, during which Israeli troops will gradually withdraw from central Gaza.

During this phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages -- expected to be mostly women, the elderly, and the sick -- in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

Some hostages were released in November 2023 in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is still holding 94 hostages, but Israel believes that only 60 are still alive.

Palestinians celebrate the announcement of a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on January 15
Palestinians celebrate the announcement of a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on January 15

Palestinians displaced by the conflict will be allowed to return to their homes in the first phase of the deal, while humanitarian aid will start to flow into the Hamas-run enclave. Nearly the entirety of Gaza residents were forced to flee their homes, fueling a major humanitarian crisis.

Further negotiations on the second and third phase of the agreement will begin on the 16th day of the deal’s implementation, and analysts say this could pose the first real challenge to the cease-fire’s longevity.

The second phase of the agreement involves the release of the remaining hostages and, crucially, the end of the war.

“There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether Israel is committed to a permanent end of the conflict,” said Michael Horowitz, the head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

What It Means

The Iran-backed Hamas has suffered greatly in the course of the war, losing its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and his successor, Yahya Sinwar, within months of each other.

Horowitz said Hamas will claim victory simply because it survived the war.

“The question is whether it can truly return to power in Gaza, retain its military capabilities, and even capitalize on this perceived victory to consolidate its presence outside of Gaza, namely in the West Bank,” he added.

Iran, whose so-called axis of resistance has suffered multiple setbacks since the outbreak of the Gaza war, sees the cease-fire as good news.

People search the rubble of a building destroyed in an Israeli strike on the Bureij camp for Palestinian refugees in the central Gaza Strip, January 8.
People search the rubble of a building destroyed in an Israeli strike on the Bureij camp for Palestinian refugees in the central Gaza Strip, January 8.

Israel fought a devastating war with the U.S.-designated Lebanese political party and armed group Hezbollah late last year, decimating its senior leadership and degrading its military capabilities. Hezbollah came out of the war a shell of its former self, and its weakening led to the election of a president and prime minister in Lebanon who are favored by Western powers and Iran’s regional rivals.

Adding insult to injury, Syrian rebel forces opposed to the government of Iran’s longtime ally Bashar al-Assad launched a lightning offensive on the very day that Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a cease-fire. The Iran- and Russia-backed government of Assad fell in under two weeks, dealing a major blow to both Tehran and Moscow’s regional ambitions.

Horowitz said the Gaza cease-fire allows Iran to fully de-escalate and engage the Donald Trump administration once he takes office later this month.

Iran may also sit back and recalibrate its strategy, such as deciding whether to re-arm Hamas, which Horowitz said may not pose the same threat to Israel as it once did for a long time.

“I think the West Bank may be more interesting for Iran, as this is where the future of the Palestinian divide between Hamas and Israel will play out,” he added.

Many in Israel will welcome the end of the war and the return of hostages, but the cease-fire deal could turn into a headache for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has claimed several times that the war will continue until “total victory” over Hamas.

Given the staunch opposition to the deal among far-right members of his cabinet -- some of whom have threatened to quit -- Netanyahu’s top priority will be to ensure his government does not collapse, according to Horowitz.

China In Eurasia Briefing: A Baltic Warning About A New Era For Beijing In Europe

An attendant walks past EU and China flags ahead of the EU-China High-level Economic Dialogue in Beijing in 2020.
An attendant walks past EU and China flags ahead of the EU-China High-level Economic Dialogue in Beijing in 2020.

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

A Warning From The Baltics

Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis offered a clear warning for those who say that China is able to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine.

Finding Perspective: Speaking to the French international affairs outlet Geopolitique.eu, Landsbergis stamped down the idea.

“China is waiting for a moment of weakness to step in and offer ‘solutions’ and I fear that some in Europe would accept this offer because it’s a cheap alternative to us stepping up, in the same way that you buy a Chinese car because it’s cheaper. The same goes for their peace proposals.”

Landsbergis was commenting on a recent interview with outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and The New York Times, where Blinken said that one of the reasons that Moscow had not escalated into a nuclear war in Ukraine was because of China.

“If you follow that line of reasoning, it means that China has become a protector of Europe. That would be the beginning of a new paradigm,” Landsbergis said.

“If we accept that China, which in my view supports Russia and is therefore an adversary of the countries supporting Ukraine, is now the guarantor of nuclear deterrence on our continent, it would be a dangerous mistake and a failure.”

Why It Matters: Landsbergis’s warning comes as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office and Europe anxiously looks at a very different geopolitical reality.

Trump’s tariff threats and less traditional approach to Washington’s relationship with Europe is a source of consternation in European capitals and there is talk in some corners about having a more amenable position toward Beijing to balance the Trump administration.

On January 14, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke with European Council President Antonio Costa to begin what many analysts believe will be a charm offensive from Beijing toward the continent.

But while Trump may have a rockier relationship with Brussels and various capitals than his predecessor, Beijing is also facing a different playing field than when U.S. President Joe Biden took office.

China’s support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine has strained ties with Europe, and Brussels is taking aim at Chinese companies in some sectors, a trend that looks set to continue.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas has also voiced strong criticism of China, especially for its stance around the war in Ukraine and its long-term repercussions.

Landsbergis shared similar sentiments, saying that “Ukraine is central to what will happen in the future” between China and Taiwan.

“I mentioned earlier that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has managed to change the nuclear doctrine by getting us to accept, at least for now, that resisting an attack is a form of escalation and therefore a nuclear strike is justified.”

“One can imagine a situation where China imposes a blockade, even a partial one, on Taiwan and they resist and we try to lift it, then China could use the Russian playbook,” he said. “I don’t think we collectively understand how reckless it is.”

Three more stories from Eurasia

1. The Taliban Courts Chinese Capital

My Afghan colleagues at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi and I reported about a new road built by the Taliban in northeast Afghanistan that the hardline group is hoping can better connect the country to neighboring China.

The Details: The first section of the road in the Wakhan Corridor was completed a year ago in early 2024, and the Taliban is looking to build out the connections further to one day open up more trade with China.

The road link is part of a series of announcements and groundbreaking ceremonies in 2024 -- from oil deals to mining rights -- that the Taliban are hoping will keep moving ahead in the coming year.

But the main questions remain over whether the militants can finally calm China's long-standing security concerns.

Haiyun Ma, an associate professor at Frostburg University, told me that, despite the lofty deals, Chinese investment is still not flowing in Afghanistan and that there are growing frustrations under the surface between Beijing and the Taliban.

Ma says that the announcement in 2024 helps bring prestige and legitimacy to the Taliban as it adapts to governing and that it offers a low-risk, low-commitment way for Beijing to signal long-term intent toward the country.

But he adds that China is in no hurry to have a footprint in Afghanistan.

China is yet to set up a border crossing in the area where the Wakhan road leads and despite all the resource deals, Beijing has plenty of already developed alternatives elsewhere in the world to help meet its domestic needs.

2. Trump, Greenland, China, And The Arctic

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has once again kicked up a storm by refusing to rule out the use of force to gain control of Greenland.

As my colleague Todd Prince writes, Trump’s pursuit shines a light on the complicated national-security picture in the Arctic between the United States, China, Russia, and other players.

What You Need To Know: While China is not an Arctic nation, it is seeking to be a major player in the region. In recent years, Beijing has sought to buy ports, other infrastructure, and mining rights on Greenland though it has not been successful.

Todd writes that the United States suspected China's real interest in those projects was to place dual-use sensors and radars in the Arctic Circle to help control their military satellites and gather intelligence on U.S. space-based operations in the region.

3. U.S. Energy Sanctions Hurt Chinese, Indian Purchases Of Russian Oil

Chinese and Indian refiners are looking for new fuel supplies as they adapt to hard-hitting new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers.

What It Means: Many of the newly sanctioned tankers brought oil to China and India, and both Bloomberg and Reuters reported that the sanctions have led to a jump in prices and driven Chinese refiners back to sellers of oil that is not restricted.

The sanctions were announced on January 10 and they target Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, two of Russia's five largest largest oil producers, as well as 183 vessels transporting Russian oil and oil products to foreign markets.

The Biden administration also sanctioned “opaque” traders of Russian oil, more than 30 Russia-based oil-field service providers, and more than a dozen leading Russian energy officials and executives.

The Chinese refiner Yulong Petrochemical has previously bought Russian crude, but, according to industry data, it purchased 4 million barrels of crude from the United Arab Emirates following the sanctions.

After the sanctions announcement, Unipec, a subsidiary of China’s state-owned energy giant Sinopec, booked four large carriers of crude from the Middle East which the data intelligence firm Kpler said could carry a total of up to 2 million barrels.

Across The Supercontinent

Kyiv’s China Consultations: Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry told RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service that 2024 was a year of “developing” political dialogue in Beijing, pointing to the extensive high-level talks with their counterparts in the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi added that Kyiv considers China one of the countries that can and does have influence on the Russian Federation. And we will continue to maintain this contact with the Chinese side.”

Parting Shots: In a speech at the State Department on January 13 summing up his administration’s record, Biden said the United States has widened its lead over competitors like Russia and China.

"Our adversaries are weaker than they were when we came into this job four years ago. Let's consider Russia. Putin invaded Ukraine. He thought he'd conquer Kyiv in a matter of days. But the truth is, since that war began, I'm the only one that stood in the center of Kyiv, not him," Biden said, referring to his visit to the embattled nation last year.

The China Connection: As Russian forces have intensified their advances in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, they're being helped by a new tool on the battlefield: drones that fly with the use of fiber-optic cables, RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service and I reported.

Some Ukrainian experts have said that the drone models used by Russia are very similar to China’s commercially available Skywalker drone. There are also growing reports in Ukrainian media of high-quantity orders being placed at Chinese factories by Russian companies for large spools of fiber-optic cables.

One Thing To Watch

Trade between China and Russia reached a record high in 2024, according to official data released on January 13 by China’s General Administration of Customs.

The figures show how Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to strengthen their relationship are paying off in the face of tough Western economic sanctions on Russia.

While the 2024 trade data reached an all-time high, the year-on-year growth rate slowed significantly compared to the 26.3 percent surge seen in 2023.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.

Lebanon Names ICJ Chief As Prime Minister In Latest Blow To Iran

Nawaf Salam's designation as Lebanese prime minister further reflects the weakening of Hezbollah -- and by extension the waning of Iran's influence. (file photo)
Nawaf Salam's designation as Lebanese prime minister further reflects the weakening of Hezbollah -- and by extension the waning of Iran's influence. (file photo)

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's designation of Nawaf Salam, the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as the country's new prime minister appears to deal another blow to Iran's declining regional influence.

Lawmakers on January 13 nominated Salam for the post, favoring him over the incumbent, Najib Mikati, who was said to be the preferred candidate of Hezbollah, the political party and armed group backed by Iran and designated as terrorists by the United States.

Aoun himself was elected president by lawmakers on January 9, filling a role that had been vacant for over two years, not least because lawmakers from Hezbollah and its Shi'ite ally Amal Movement would refuse to attend sessions to prevent the parliament from reaching quorum.

The U.S.- and Saudi-backed former army chief was elected president in the second round of voting after Hezbollah lawmakers opted to vote for him, having withheld their ballots in the first round in an apparent attempt to show that the group still held some power.

However, Salam's designation as prime minister further reflects the weakening of Hezbollah -- and by extension the waning of Iran's influence.

"It means that Iran's dominance in the region has come to an end," Makram Rabah, a history lecturer at American University of Beirut, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Mohammad Raad, leader of the Hezbollah bloc in parliament, claimed on January 13 that opponents of the group were working to exclude it from power and sought to divide the country.

The Lebanese lawmaker said the group had "extended its hand" by helping Aoun become president but found the "hand was cut off" after meeting him following the parliament's nomination of Salam.

Raad warned any government that "opposes coexistence has no legitimacy whatsoever."

Rabah said Salam's designation as prime minister "does not pose a challenge for anyone," but if Iran and Hezbollah believe that his becoming Lebanon's premier is "an attempt to end them," that means the Islamic republic and its Lebanese ally "harbor ideas and policies that contravene the principles of governance and progress."

Once a powerful force in Lebanon, Hezbollah's recent war with Israel has left it politically and socially weak and militarily degraded.

Under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing political system, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shi'ite Muslim.

Salam, who comes from a historically political family, served as Lebanon's ambassador to the United Nations in 2007-17 before elected to serve on the ICJ, with his term beginning in 2018. In 2024, he became the first Lebanese judge to be elected as the head of The Hague-based court.

Election Of New Lebanese President Signals Iran's Waning Influence

Lebanon's army chief Joseph Aoun walks after being elected as the country's President at the parliament building in Beirut, January 9
Lebanon's army chief Joseph Aoun walks after being elected as the country's President at the parliament building in Beirut, January 9

Lebanese lawmakers have elected army chief Joseph Aoun as the country’s new president, ending a two-year gridlock in a clear sign of the weakening of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political party and military force that had scuttled past efforts to name a president.

Lawmakers from Hezbollah, which is a U.S.-designated terrorist group, and its ally Amal had for two years obstructed attempts to elect a president by walking out of the parliament, preventing it from reaching a quorum.

This time, however, they voted for Aoun in the second round on January 9 after their preferred candidate dropped out.

In the end, Aoun secured a commanding second-round victory, winning 99 out of 128 votes after falling short of the two-thirds majority required for victory in the first round.

Hezbollah’s devastating war with Israel late last year caused significant damage in Lebanon, particularly in the capital, Beirut, and weakened the Shi’ite group militarily, socially, and, it seems, politically.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the election of the U.S-backed Aoun indicates that Hezbollah has “come to terms with the new political realities” in Lebanon.

He said that, by backing Aoun’s election, Hezbollah sought to avoid being blamed for prolonging Lebanon’s political gridlock while also ensuring that more staunchly anti-Hezbollah figures such as Samir Geagea did not become president.

“[Hezbollah’s] focus remains on survival while working toward a more stable situation in the country, which they hope to use over time to regain strength and rehabilitate their position,” Azizi added.

Aoun’s election was backed by the United States, France, and Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia, indicating that Riyadh’s influence in Lebanon will likely grow at Tehran’s expense.

“It is quite evident that, as Hezbollah’s role diminishes in Lebanon’s political and military affairs, Iranian influence is also waning,” Azizi argued.

Losing influence in Lebanon caps off a catastrophic few months for Iran, which has witnessed the battering of its sprawling network of regional proxies and the fall of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Still, Tehran appears supportive of Hezbollah’s strategy of maintaining a lower profile and focusing on rebuilding its strength, according to Azizi.

Even Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian has welcomed Aoun's election, saying it was a "reinforcement of stability and unity" in the country.

Iranian state-affiliated media, meanwhile, have avoided criticizing Aoun, with one news agency even describing him as an “impartial” and “relatively popular” figure.

In his victory speech, Aoun vowed that only the Lebanese state would have a "monopoly" on weapons in a comment seen as a pledge to disarm Hezbollah, which has long been considered a more powerful force than the Lebanese military.

Azizi said disarming Hezbollah is a longer-term goal which is “easier said than done” and that for “clear-eyed” Aoun, the immediate priority is establishing stability in Lebanon.

Of more immediate concern, analysts say, is the implementation of an Israeli-Hezbollah cease-fire while also seeking funding to rebuild Lebanon, especially in areas in the south and east that were hit hard by the fighting.

"Aoun has interlocking objectives. He has to address Hezbollah's weapons through some sort of dialogue forum. Yet he can only do so if he secures funding to rebuild mainly Shi'a areas. And for this he must engage in economic reform, because the Gulf states now demand it," said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

After Degrading Hamas And Hezbollah, Israel Intensifies Attacks On Yemen's Huthis

The Huthis publicly display their ballistic missiles during a military parade in Sanaa, Yemen, in September 2023.
The Huthis publicly display their ballistic missiles during a military parade in Sanaa, Yemen, in September 2023.

Israel has degraded the fighting capabilities of its chief adversaries over the past year, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

But Yemen's Huthi rebels, who continue to fire missiles and drones at Israel, have proven a resilient foe despite Israeli attacks.

"Deterring the Huthis presents significant challenges," said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Israel lacks sufficient intelligence about the group and its operational capabilities."

Israel's success hinges on its ability to locate and destroy the Iranian-backed group's weapons facilities, a task that has "proven difficult so far," Nagi said.

Another challenge is geography. Yemen is located some 2,000 kilometers from Israel. The Huthis also control large swaths of the country, including their stronghold in the mountainous northwest and the Red Sea coastline.

Israeli emergency services work at the scene of a missile strike that, according to Israel's military, was launched from Yemen and landed in Jaffa, Israel, on December 21.
Israeli emergency services work at the scene of a missile strike that, according to Israel's military, was launched from Yemen and landed in Jaffa, Israel, on December 21.

Even so, Israel has intensified its air strikes in recent weeks against the Huthis, despite the armed group posing a limited direct military threat to Israel. The escalating Israeli attacks have threatened to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.

Escalating Attacks

On December 26, Israel said it conducted air strikes on the main airport in Sanaa as well as power stations and "military infrastructure" at several Yemeni ports.

The head of the World Health Organization narrowly escaped death in the Israeli strikes on the airport that killed at least six people.

Israel's allies, including the United States and Britain, have also carried out strikes in Yemen.

The U.S. military said that it carried out air strikes against Huthi targets in Sanaa and along the Yemeni coast on December 30 and 31, including a "command and control facility and advanced conventional weapon production and storage facilities."

The Huthis have fired on U.S. naval forces and attacked international shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting a key global trade route.

The Israeli strikes came amid almost daily missile and drone attacks by the Huthis on Israel. Most of the attacks have been intercepted by Israel's air defenses and have caused little material damage. But they have triggered constant air raid sirens in many parts of Israel and disrupted everyday life.

The Huthis launched their attacks on Israel and international shipping in late 2023. It came soon after Israel began its devastating war in the Gaza Strip. The rebels have vowed to continue their attacks until a cease-fire is reached in the Palestinian enclave.

Protesters, mainly Huthi supporters, shout slogans as they rally to show support for Palestinians and Lebanon's Hezbollah in Sanaa, Yemen, on November 8.
Protesters, mainly Huthi supporters, shout slogans as they rally to show support for Palestinians and Lebanon's Hezbollah in Sanaa, Yemen, on November 8.

Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Israel is largely operating against the Huthis in the dark. Israeli attacks, he said, have mainly targeted "civilian and strategic infrastructure rather than the military assets."

Civilians have borne the brunt of the violence in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population of some 35 million people need humanitarian assistance.

"We, the people, are paying for it, not the Huthis," said Mustapha Noman, a former Yemeni deputy foreign minister. "This helps them."

Iran's Trusted Allies

The Huthis are part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel.

Israel has severely weakened the axis over the past year. Israel's ground invasion and devastating air campaign in Lebanon decimated the military capabilities of Hezbollah, an armed group and political party in Lebanon.

Israel's ongoing war in the Gaza Strip has devastated the Palestinian territory and diminished the fighting power of Hamas.

Meanwhile, in early December, longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another member of the axis and a key ally of Iran, was ousted from power by Islamist rebels.

That has heightened the importance of the Huthis for Iran. The rebels are armed with highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.

"Without the Huthis, Israel would likely shift its full focus towards targeting and weakening Iran directly," said Nagi.

Carter's Troubled Presidency Turned Into Decades Of Service (Video)

Carter's Troubled Presidency Turned Into Decades Of Service (Video)
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Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter has died at age 100. His turbulent single term as U.S. president was marred by the 444-day Iran hostage crisis but was followed by decades of global philanthropy, diplomacy, and the Nobel Peace Prize.

Jimmy Carter, Nobel Laureate Whose Presidency Was Marred By Iran Hostage Crisis, Dies Aged 100

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. (File photo)
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. (File photo)

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was marred by the 444-day Iran hostage crisis, has died at age 100 after receiving hospice care for almost two years.

"Jimmy Carter, 39th president of the United States and winner of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, died peacefully Sunday, December 29, at his home in Plains, Georgia, surrounded by his family," the Carter Center in his home state of Georgia said in a statement.

U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement that "America and the world lost an extraordinary leader, statesman, and humanitarian."

Biden declared January 9, the day Carter's funeral will be held in Washington, D.C., as a national day of mourning.

Though his presidency was marked by his failure to rein in rampant inflation, revive the economy, and his inability to free dozens of Americans held captive at an embassy in the Iranian capital, Tehran, his life after office was celebrated for his humanitarian work around the world.

"God gives us the capacity for choice. We can choose to alleviate suffering. We can choose to work together for peace. We can make these changes -- and we must," Carter said in his speech upon accepting the Nobel Peace Prize. He was the first former U.S. president to win the award.

Carter's Troubled Presidency Turned Into Decades Of Service (Video)
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Former President Barack Obama praised Carter's "decency," saying in a tribute the onetime peanut farmer who was raised in poverty "taught all of us what it means to live a life of grace, dignity, justice, and service."

President-elect Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that "the challenges Jimmy faced as president came at a pivotal time for our country and he did everything in his power to improve the lives of all Americans."

The iconic Empire State Building in New York City was lit up in red, white, and blue to honor Carter.

Carter, a one-term leader, is remembered for having brokered a peace deal between Israel and Egypt and later received the Nobel Peace Prize for his humanitarian work and efforts to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts.

But it was the Iranian hostage crisis that would come to define Carter's presidency from 1977 to 1981.

The Islamic Revolution in 1979 toppled the U.S.-backed shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and brought to power a group of clerics led by exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Carter granted the ailing shah political asylum, to the anger of many Iranians.

In late 1979, a group of hard-line Iranian students who were believed to have had the tacit support of Khomeini stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took 52 Americans hostage. They demanded the return of the shah and an apology for past actions by the United States in Iran.

Carter said the United States could not give in to the hostage-takers, and the crisis dragged on for over a year.

"It's vital to the United States and to every other nation that the lives of diplomatic personnel and other citizens abroad be protected, and that we refuse to permit the use of terrorism, and the seizure and the holding of hostages, to impose political demands,” he said.

“No one should underestimate the resolve of the American government and the American people in this matter."

With negotiations with the Iranians proving fruitless, Carter ordered U.S. Special Forces to try to rescue the American hostages in April 1980. The mission ended in disaster, and eight U.S. soldiers died in an accident caused by equipment failure.

Carter announced the failed rescue mission to the nation: "I share the disappointment of the American people that this rescue mission was not successful. And I also share the grief of our nation because we had Americans who were casualties in this effort to seek freedom for their fellow citizens who have been held hostage for so long.

"But I also share a deep pride in the commitment and courage and the integrity and the competence and determination of those who went on this mission."

The Iranian hostage crisis -- and Carter's inability to resolve it -- dominated the news in the United States throughout 1980, a presidential election year.

He was easily defeated in his reelection bid by Ronald Reagan, a former Hollywood actor who had energized the Republican party with his smooth appearance and supply-side economic policies.

In a final insult to Carter, Iran decided to release the hostages on January 20, 1981, the day Carter left office and Reagan was inaugurated as president.

One of Carter's first goals after becoming president was to work on a second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, known as SALT II, with the Soviet Union. The treaty was designed to further limit the number of nuclear weapons held by both countries.

Negotiating the treaty with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev was difficult because of Carter's persistent criticism of Moscow's human rights record. But in June 1979 the two leaders signed SALT II. The U.S. Senate did not ratify the treaty following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979, but its terms were honored by both sides.

In response to the Soviet invasion, the president announced what came to be known as the Carter Doctrine -- that the United States would defend its interests in the Persian Gulf with military force if necessary. The United States also boycotted the 1980 Olympic Games in Moscow.

"I have given notice that the United States will not attend the Moscow Olympics unless the Soviet invasion forces are withdrawn from Afghanistan before February 20,” said Carter at the time. “That deadline is tomorrow, and it will not be changed."

Though his term in office is often characterized as a failure, Carter's presidency had its share of triumphs.

He established an effective national energy policy and encouraged the creation of 8 million new jobs, although at the cost of high inflation. He also improved the operation of the U.S. federal government through reform of the civil service.

Carter's greatest achievement as U.S. president was the 1978 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, brokered at the Camp David presidential retreat. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.

Carter's wife, Rosalynn, died in November 2023, at age 96.

Syria's De Facto Leader Wants To Maintain 'Respectful' Ties With Iran, Russia

De facto Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa said he seeks ties based on mutual "respect" with Iran and Russia.
De facto Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa said he seeks ties based on mutual "respect" with Iran and Russia.

New Syrian de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa told the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television channel that he wants relations with Iran and Russia, but he insisted any ties must be based on mutual "respect."

Russia and Iran were major allies of Syria under the regime of President Bashar al-Assad until the totalitarian leader was ousted by rebels in early December.

The West is closely watching the new ruler's actions, including the depth of any future ties with Tehran and Moscow.

"Syria cannot continue without relations with an important regional country like Iran," Sharaa told Al Arabiya in a wide-ranging interview on December 29.

But relations "must be based on respect for the sovereignty of both countries and noninterference in the affairs of both countries," he added.

Sharaa urged Tehran to rethink its regional policies and interventions and pointed out that opposition forces protected Iranian positions during the fighting to oust Assad, even though rebels knew Iran was a major backer of the president.

Sharaa said he had expected positive overtures from Iran following these actions but said they have not been forthcoming.

Sharaa, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, said that while he expects Moscow to withdraw its forces from Syria, he also spoke of "deep strategic interests" with the "second most powerful country in the world."

"We don't want Russia to exit Syria in a way that undermines its relationship with our country,” he told Al-Arabiya, without providing details.

"All of Syria's arms are of Russian origin, and many power plants are managed by Russian experts.... We do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish," he said.

According to flight data analyzed by RFE/RL, Russia is reducing its military footprint in Syria and shifting some of its assets from the Middle Eastern country to Africa.

To offset the potential loss of its air base in Hmeimim and naval base in Tartus, Russia appears to be increasing its presence in Libya, Mali, and Sudan, although experts say the loss of Syrian bases is a major blow to the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Sharaa also said that organizing elections in the country could take up to four years and that a new constitution could require three years to be finalized.

The leader expressed hope that the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump -- set to take office on January 20 -- would lift sanctions on his country.

"We hope the incoming Trump administration will not follow the policy of its predecessor," Sharaa said.

The rebels who ousted Assad were led by Sharaa's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist group, a U.S. and EU-designated terrorist organization.

Sharaa has publicly pledged to adopt moderate policies regarding women's rights, national reconciliation, and relations with the international community, although world leaders say they remain wary of the new rulers pending concrete actions.

Why Iran And The U.A.E. Fight Over 3 Tiny Islands

Why Iran And The U.A.E. Fight Over 3 Tiny Islands
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Major oil exporters in the Persian Gulf region are keenly focused on who has control of a small archipelago in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz. Both Iran and the United Arab Emirates have made claims.

Turkey Replacing Iran As The Dominant Foreign Player In Syria

A fighter walks outside the Turkish Embassy after fighters of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus on December 14.
A fighter walks outside the Turkish Embassy after fighters of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus on December 14.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at the hands of rebels, including Ankara-backed factions, has effectively made Turkey the dominant foreign actor in Syria at the expense of Iran and its ally Russia.

Turkey and Iran have competed for years for influence in the South Caucasus, and this rivalry appears to have now extended to the Levant.

"The Islamic republic has had significant misgivings about Turkish influence in Syria, be it economic, political, or military, long before the fall of Assad. But with the loss of Iran's sole state ally in the region, these concerns are set to be magnified exponentially," said Behnam Taleblu, an Iran analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

Still, experts say Turkey's rising profile in Syria to the detriment of Iran does not necessarily mean Ankara-Tehran relations will be significantly impacted.

What Is Turkey After?

Since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Iran and Russia backed Assad while Turkey supported rebel groups opposed to his rule.

Iran needed Assad to remain in power so that it could use Syria as a staging ground to fund and arm its proxies and partners, especially the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

For Russia, Assad's rule meant Moscow could maintain its Hmeimim air base and naval base in Tartus, which gave it easier access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea.

Ankara wanted a government in Syria more aligned with its regional vision and policies, especially those that would restrain Kurdish groups in northeastern Syria. A coalition of Kurdish parties, including the Democratic Union Party (PYD), heads the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.

PYD's armed wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG), leads the U.S-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

"Turkey has had three core concerns in Syria: fighting the YPG/PYD, enabling the return of Syrian refugees to Syria, and preventing further refugee flows into Turkey," said Daria Isachenko, a Turkey expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Assad's downfall on December 8 has stemmed the influx of refugees into Turkey, but the "first two concerns remain," Isachenko added.

Syria is now effectively ruled by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey, Iran's rival.

Isachenko says Turkey's growing influence in Syria could further strengthen its position in the Mediterranean Sea if Ankara signs a Libya-style maritime deal with the new authorities in Damascus.

The Road Ahead

Turkey's growth in stature and Iran's weakened position in Syria could have ramifications for developments in the South Caucasus, where Iran, Russia, and Turkey vie for influence.

Experts say while the Astana talks -- a format sponsored by the three countries to end the conflict in Syria -- may be dead, it still served as a platform for managing different interests.

"Coordination and consultation on conflict management between Turkey and Iran as well as Russia on the Middle East and the South Caucasus should not be ruled out," Isachenko said.

She adds that even in Syria, Turkey and Iran may find some of their interests aligned, such as finding a common adversary in Israel, which has moved into Syrian territory since the fall of Assad.

Still, some argue that Tehran will seek to undermine Turkey in Syria in the hopes of returning the country into its so-called axis of resistance -- Iran's loose network of regional allies and proxies.

"The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will look for ways to claw back influence in Syria," said Taleblu of FDD.

"Downtrodden, disposed, and spurned local actors are easy to co-opt, particularly in states where central authority is weak."

The Kurdish Question

U.S. support for the Kurdish-led SDF has weakened in recent years due to a combination of factors, including the withdrawal of a majority of U.S. troops in 2018 and 2019 and pressure from Washington's NATO ally, Turkey.

Ankara, which launched an incursion into northern Syria in 2019 against Kurdish forces, is now in a strong position to further challenge the Kurds, experts say.

A man walks past a mural depicting supporters of the Kurdish-led SDF in the northeastern city of Qamishli on December 16.
A man walks past a mural depicting supporters of the Kurdish-led SDF in the northeastern city of Qamishli on December 16.

Since Assad's fall, Ankara-backed rebel groups have clashed with Kurdish forces and seized the previously Kurdish-controlled cities of Manbij and Tarafat near the border with Turkey.

Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an Iraqi Kurdistan-based analyst who has co-authored books on Syrian Kurds, says the presence of the 900 remaining U.S. troops might offer some protection to the Kurds but the situation remains precarious.

"The new administration in Damascus likely will prefer relations with Turkey over the SDF," he said. "The situation is difficult for the Kurds unless they reach an agreement with HTS."

HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, wants to unify all armed groups in Syria under one banner. But if the SDF were to join, it would effectively end Kurdish autonomy in Syria, Wilgenburg says.

Russia Moving Military Assets To Africa After Syria Setback

Russian submarines docked at a Russian naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus. (file photo)
Russian submarines docked at a Russian naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus. (file photo)

Russia is reducing its military footprint in Syria and shifting some of its assets from the Middle Eastern country to Africa, flight data and satellite imagery analyzed by RFE/RL appear to show.

Moscow seems to have withdrawn a significant amount of military equipment from its bases in Syria since President Bashar al-Assad, Russia’s longtime ally, was ousted from power on December 8.

To offset the potential loss of its air base in Hmeimim and naval base in Tartus, Russia looks to be increasing its presence in Libya, Mali, and Sudan. But experts say the African countries are unlikely to be viable alternatives.

Still, flight data and satellite imagery suggest Russia is transferring some of its military assets from Syria to its facilities in Africa.

Losing its Syrian bases would be a major strategic setback for Russia, which has used the facilities to project its power across the Middle East and Africa.

Moscow has said it is still in negotiations with the new government in Damascus over the future of its military bases in Syria. But the significant movement of Russian military equipment suggests it is preparing for a partial or full withdrawal from Syria, experts say.

A satellite image shows Russia’s naval vessels departing their usual positions at the Tartus base on December 5. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies.
A satellite image shows Russia’s naval vessels departing their usual positions at the Tartus base on December 5. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies.
A satellite image from Russia's Tartus base on December 10. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
A satellite image from Russia's Tartus base on December 10. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Helicopters disassembled for transport at the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Syria on December 13. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Helicopters disassembled for transport at the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Syria on December 13. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Heavy transport aircraft preparing to load at the Hmeimim air base in Latakia on December 13. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Heavy transport aircraft preparing to load at the Hmeimim air base in Latakia on December 13. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
On December 15, a group of military trucks, armored personnel carriers, and personnel were seen being assembled on the tarmac at the Hmeimim air base. An Il-76 transport aircraft was parked near the equipment and several additional transport aircraft were also seen at the air base. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
On December 15, a group of military trucks, armored personnel carriers, and personnel were seen being assembled on the tarmac at the Hmeimim air base. An Il-76 transport aircraft was parked near the equipment and several additional transport aircraft were also seen at the air base. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies

Russia has several bases in Africa, where Moscow has boosted its military footprint in recent years. They include facilities in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan.

Moving a significant amount of military equipment from Russia or Syria to Africa, however, will be costly, experts say.

“To carry out important operations Russia will have to pay a lot of money. Both for its air and sea fleet,” said Roland Marchal of the Paris Institute of Political Studies.

It would also be more difficult to fly cargo jets all the way from Russia to Africa loaded down with heavy weaponry, with refueling a major challenge. That also assumes Russia can secure overflight rights from Turkey, a regional rival.

Despite the costs, Russia appears to be moving some of its military assets from Syria to bases in Mali and Libya, which is home to an estimated 1,200 Russian mercenaries.

Satellite images also show increased activity in Russia’s naval base in Sudan. Moscow signed a deal to open a base on the African country’s Red Sea coast in 2019. It is unclear if the naval facility is fully operational.

A comparison of the activities at Russia’s Al-Jufra base in Libya on December 5, December 10, and December 15 shows the arrival of a Russian Ilyushin plane. Source: Planet Labs.
A comparison of the activities at Russia’s Al-Jufra base in Libya on December 5, December 10, and December 15 shows the arrival of a Russian Ilyushin plane. Source: Planet Labs.
Satellite images show activities at Russia’s naval base in Sudan between November 16 and December 10. Source: Planet Labs.
Satellite images show activities at Russia’s naval base in Sudan between November 16 and December 10. Source: Planet Labs.
Images from December 13 (top picture) and December 11 (bottom picture) of Bamako airport in Mali, which is home to a Russian base, shows a plane unloading. Source: Planet Labs
Images from December 13 (top picture) and December 11 (bottom picture) of Bamako airport in Mali, which is home to a Russian base, shows a plane unloading. Source: Planet Labs
Bamako airport on December 13 zoomed in to show a plane unloading. Source: Planet Labs
Bamako airport on December 13 zoomed in to show a plane unloading. Source: Planet Labs

Flight analysis shows Moscow sending cargo planes to Libya, with some coming from Syria and others from Russia.

There has been heavier than usual traffic in recent weeks between Russia and Libya, although it is unclear what the planes were transporting.

A Russian Ilyushin Il-76 jet -- a heavy-lift workhorse cargo plane -- flew from Russia to Libya on December 12, went back to Russia a day later, and immediately flew back to Libya, flight records show.

Flight records from December 16 also show an Ilyushin Il-76 jet flying from Russia to Moscow’s military base in Bamako in Mali. The jet returned to Russia the next day.

Cargo planes flying from Russia to Libya used the air space of Turkey, a NATO member.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said on December 12 that Russia’s logistical challenges in reaching Africa “will increase the political leverage that Turkey will hold over Russia.”

The think tank also mentioned the “practical costs of supporting Russian operations in Africa if more cargo planes stop to refuel at other airfields.”

Mark Krutov of RFE/RL’s Russian Service contributed to this report.

Syrians Expect 'Serious Soul-Searching' From Russia Over Assad Support

Syrians Expect 'Serious Soul-Searching' From Russia Over Assad Support
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As expatriate Syrians celebrate the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power, they have also voiced support for Ukraine as it continues to face an invasion by Russia -- the country that backed the fugitive Syrian president's rule. "My message to Ukrainians is: Nothing is impossible," Samira Sibai, a Syrian-Czech doctor, told Current Time at a Prague rally on December 14, adding that Russians "should do some serious soul-searching" over their country's role in Syria.

Updated

EU Ministers Approve New Sanctions Targeting Russian 'Shadow Fleet'

Ukrainian flags and the EU flag are seen during a mass rally in front of the Ukrainian cabinet of ministers building in Kyiv.
Ukrainian flags and the EU flag are seen during a mass rally in front of the Ukrainian cabinet of ministers building in Kyiv.

European Union foreign ministers have adopted a 15th package of sanctions against Russia targeting tankers transporting Russian oil as the bloc looks to curb the circumvention of previous measures aimed at hindering Moscow's ability to wage war against Ukraine.

"This package of sanctions is part of our response to weaken Russia’s war machine and those who are enabling this war, also including Chinese companies," Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, said in a statement on December 16.

"It shows the unity of EU member states in our continued support to Ukraine. Our immediate priority is to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position. We will stand by the Ukrainian people on all fronts: humanitarian, economic, political, diplomatic and military. There can be no doubt that Ukraine will win," she added.

The European Council said it agreed on a significant package of measures against 54 individuals and 30 entities "responsible for actions undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence of Ukraine."

It sanctioned the military unit responsible for the striking of the Okhmadyt children's hospital in Kyiv, senior managers in leading companies in Russia's energy sector, individuals responsible for the deportation of Ukrainian children, and two "senior" North Korean officials.

Moscow's so-called shadow fleet of tankers is a group of old, uninsured oil vessels used to bypass Western sanctions and maintain a source of revenue. The poor condition of these ships has raised concerns about environmental disasters.

Separately, 12 Western nations announced measures on December 16 designed "to disrupt and deter Russia’s shadow fleet vessels."

“Russia uses its shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions and mitigate their impact on Russia. The 12 countries agreed to disrupt and deter Russia’s shadow fleet to prevent illegal operations and increase Russia’s costs of its war against Ukraine,” a statement said.

Five of the nations – Britain, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Finland, and Estonia -- have ordered their maritime authorities to request relevant proof of insurance from suspected “shadow” vessels as they pass through bodies of water under their jurisdiction, the statement added.

The statement was issued by the government of Estonia, where leaders of the 10-nation Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) were scheduled to meet on December 17.

A draft of a statement of conclusions being prepared for an EU summit later this week and seen by RFE/RL said that efforts "to further limit Russia's ability to wage war must continue."

The draft, which is still subject to revision, adds that the European Council "strongly condemns" Iran and North Korea for helping to sustain Russia's "war of aggression against Ukraine."

The bloc said growing military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran and the deployment of North Koreans to the battlefront have "serious consequences for international peace and security" and called on both countries to stop helping Russia.

The EU will continue aiding Ukraine financially to stave off the Russian invasion, with plans to disburse a total of 18.1 billion euros ($19 billion) to Kyiv in 2025 starting in January.

On developments in Syria, the bloc welcomed the fall of the "criminal regime" of Bashar al-Assad and called for an "inclusive and Syrian-led political process" to install a government that protects the rights of minorities.

It added that the bloc's foreign policy chief would be asked to "prepare options for measures to support Syria."

On the Gaza War, it called for "an immediate cease-fire" and the unconditional release of hostages held by Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the EU and the United States.

It also reiterated its stance on a two-state solution to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and establish "just and lasting peace."

The EU summit will take place in Brussels on December 19.

Syrians Rally In Prague, Change Flag At Embassy

Syrians Rally In Prague, Change Flag At Embassy
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Dozens of Syrian diaspora members in the Czech Republic -- joined by local sympathizers -- rallied in downtown Prague to welcome the removal of President Bashar al-Assad's rule. The December 14 rally continued at the Syrian Embassy. The flag used by the Syrian opposition was hoisted at the diplomatic mission.

Updated

Russia Withdraws More Military Equipment From Syria

Military equipment is loaded aboard an Antonov An-124-100 heavy transport aircraft. (file photo)
Military equipment is loaded aboard an Antonov An-124-100 heavy transport aircraft. (file photo)

A Russian cargo plane took off early on December 14 from the Hmeimim air base in western Syria and was reportedly destined for Libya as Moscow continued its departure from its key regional ally.

Citing a Syrian official who monitors the base, Reuters reported that several more Russian transport planes were expected to depart from the base in the coming days as part of an evacuation following the fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

Satellite images taken on December 13 by the space technology company Maxar appeared to show Russia preparing for the withdrawal of military equipment from the Hmeimim air base.

The images showed what appear to be at least two Antonov An-124 cargo planes on the tarmac with their nose cones open.

An An-124 heavy transport aircraft prepares to load equipment at the Khmeimim air base in Syria on December 13.
An An-124 heavy transport aircraft prepares to load equipment at the Khmeimim air base in Syria on December 13.

The source cited by Reuters did not specify the make or model of the aircraft that departed on December 14.

Reuters further reported that on the morning of December 14 an Il-76 cargo plane was seen at the base, while helicopters were flying within the perimeter of facility that was essential to Russia’s strategy of providing air support for Assad’s forces and allies in the Syrian civil war.

Russia's intervention in the war in 2015 had helped keep Assad in power, but the strongman leader fled Syria last week as the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey -- overran government forces in a blitz offensive.

Russia helped Assad leave the country as the rebel forces approached Damascus and granted him asylum.

RFE/RL determined earlier this week based on satellite images that a Russian Il-76 had landed in Libya at the Al-Jufra air base on December 10. There is no information regarding where the plane came from or where it subsequently went. It is unknown if the Il-76 was the same plane reported by Reuters as being at the Hmeimim air base.

Previous analysis of satellite imagery by RFE/RL revealed that Russia's largest cargo aircraft, the An-124, had been spotted at the base, along with Il-76s, an An-32, and an An-72.

Russian military personnel are stationed at the Al-Jufra air base in Libya.

A number of Western media outlets have reported that Russia has been withdrawing military forces and assets from Syria in the face of Assad's fall, which experts say was a "slap in the face" to Russia.

Moscow leveraged its image as a key supporter of Assad capable of keeping him in power to expand its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond as a counterweight to the West.

Now, Assad's fall and the Russian departure threatens Moscow's influence not only in Syria but across the region.

Earlier reports suggested that Russia was negotiating with the new authorities in charge in Damascus to maintain its bases in Syria.

Aside from Hmeimim, Russia operates a naval base in Tartus, its only warm-water naval base outside the former Soviet Union.

The foreign ministers of the Arab League and Turkey met in Jordan on December 14 to discuss how to assist Syria's transition after the fall of Assad's government.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a news conference after the meeting that the United States had made "direct contact" with the HTS and other parties.

He declined to discuss details of the contacts but said it was important for the United States to convey messages to the group about its conduct and how it intends to govern in a transition period.

Blinken said a joint communique had been agreed at the meeting that sets out the principles that other countries want to see in Syria's political transition, including inclusivity and respect for minorities.

With reporting by AFP, Reuters, and AP

Is IS Coming Back After Assad's Fall?

Is IS Coming Back After Assad's Fall?
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Syria's most notorious extremist group has lost power over the last decade but has still managed to hit international targets. Some worry IS could make a comeback in the power vacuum following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

Assad's Fall Is A Blow To Russia. Here's What It Means For The War In Ukraine.

A Russian soldier stands between portraits of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Damascus in 2018.
A Russian soldier stands between portraits of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Damascus in 2018.

When he launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently believed Russian forces would topple the government within weeks and restore Moscow's dominance over the country after 30 years of independence.

Putin was mistaken, and the war he started rages on nearly three years later. It's hard to imagine Putin didn't mull over his miscalculation when militant-led opposition forces seized Damascus and swept Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power less than two weeks after launching an offensive.

The Kremlin's focus on the war against Ukraine is one of the factors that fed into the speed and success of the Syrian rebel offensive. Russian warplanes stepped up attacks on rebel-held territory as the offensive took hold, but with its military capabilities in Syria limited and its eyes on Ukraine, Moscow made no massive effort to stop it.

Now that Assad has fallen, what effect will Russia's big Middle East setback have on its war against Ukraine?

On the battlefield, not a huge one, analysts say, though it will depend in part on the fate of Russia's forces and bases in Syria: the airfield at Hmeimim and the naval facility at Tartus.

"A partial or full withdrawal would free up some reconnaissance, air force, special forces, and intelligence assets.... But Russia's presence in Syria is probably only a few thousand troops," Dara Massicot, a military analyst and senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFE/RL in e-mailed comments.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said in a Telegram post that as of this past summer "there were about 6,000-7,000 Russian military personnel in Syria," including members of private military companies tied to the Russian state.

"Even if all these soldiers were transferred to the Russian Federation and then sent to the war against Ukraine, this would not significantly affect the situation on the front, given the rather high daily losses of the Russian Army in assault operations," Kovalenko wrote.

Syrians Expect 'Serious Soul-Searching' From Russia Over Assad Support
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The Russian military has suffered massive casualties as it seeks to augment its gains in recent months, particularly in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, ahead of what is widely expected to be an effort by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to push for peace when he takes office in January.

Analysts pointed out that if Russian ships based at Tartus leave the Mediterranean, they cannot enter the Black Sea because Turkey has restricted passage through the Bosporus.

The departure of warplanes from Syria would be more meaningful because "it could strengthen the aviation group fighting against Ukraine," Kyiv-based military analyst Mykhaylo Samus told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service. "It is the aviation component that could play a negative role" for Ukraine.

Ivan Kyrychevskiy, an analyst at the consulting firm Defense Express in Kyiv, was more dismissive, saying, "Russia's manipulation of its resources in Syria will in no way affect Ukraine" and that, at this point, "We can't say that the Russians are leaving [Syria,] and that's the end of it."

"Russia would be willing to offer a lot to the new coalition in Syria to retain some presence there as a first priority," Massicot told RFE/RL. "Russia will try to solidify agreements in Libya and Sudan as a partial offset."

Some experts say the reputational blow Russia has suffered in Syria may further sharpen Putin's hunger for control over Ukraine.

"Assad's collapse has...shaken Putin, making him less inclined to demonstrate flexibility with Ukraine," Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on X. "The war in Ukraine has, to some extent, cost him Syria, which reinforces his unwillingness to compromise."

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears on a screen of the stage as he attends a rally marking the 10th anniversary of Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, in Red Square in central Moscow on March 18.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears on a screen of the stage as he attends a rally marking the 10th anniversary of Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, in Red Square in central Moscow on March 18.

Ruth Deyermond, a senior lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, says the events in Syria seem unlikely to affect Russia's determination to prevail in Ukraine.

"Given how tightly Putin's presidency is tied to the war in Ukraine, how far he's been willing to reshape Russian economy and society, how many lives he's been willing to sacrifice for it, and how dependent he's made Russia on other states (China, Iran, North Korea), it's hard to imagine that the loss in Syria will make much difference because it's hard to see how the Kremlin could take victory in Ukraine more seriously than they already do," she wrote in e-mailed comments to RFE/RL.

Massicot suggests it will depend on how much of a presence in Syria and the surrounding region Russia manages to salvage.

"If Russia is pushed out entirely from Syria and they are unable to offset with basing elsewhere in the region, such a serious blow to Russian power would probably make Putin more rigid and determined to show control and 'success' in Ukraine," she wrote.

At the same time, Ukrainian commentators say the collapse of a regime that had stood as a symbol of newfound Russian clout abroad could prompt the rest of the world to view Moscow as weaker and more vulnerable than when Assad's grip on power seemed firm for almost a decade after Russia's military intervention in Syria in 2015.

The "myth that Russia is great, invincible, and so forth -- it's all just propaganda. And I think this was seen clearly once again in many capitals, and it will influence all subsequent events," Volodymyr Ohryzko, Ukraine's foreign minister in 2007-09 and now the head of a center for the study of Russia, told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service.

"For us, I think this is a positive moment in our work with Western partners. And we must take advantage of this moment," Ohryzko said.

"We can use this in Ukraine, showing that nuclear powers can lose. The Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan, the United States essentially lost in Vietnam," Ukrainian political analyst Oleksandr Khara told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, adding it could help persuade Kyiv's supporters "that we can win in Ukraine if they help us with the necessary weapons and other things."

"We've seen in the past that the West has been willing to extend further support to Ukraine when they've had military successes against Russia. The Kremlin's inability to take any serious steps to prevent this geopolitical humiliation [in Syria] shows how overstretched they are in Ukraine," Deyermond wrote.

"That and the failure of Putin's recent nuclear threats should encourage NATO members in their support for Ukraine."

Islamic State Seeks Comeback Amid Power Vacuum In Syria

A member of the Islamic State militants waves an IS flag in the Syrian city of Raqqa. (file photo)
A member of the Islamic State militants waves an IS flag in the Syrian city of Raqqa. (file photo)

The Islamic State (IS) has been considered a largely spent force for years, with its remnants present in the vast desert that straddles the border between Syria and Iraq.

But the extremist group could attempt to exploit the power vacuum in Syria, where militants toppled longtime President Bashar al-Assad, to make a resurgence, experts warn.

IS militants stunned the world when they seized large swaths of Syria and Iraq and declared a self-styled caliphate in 2014. But they had been largely defeated by a U.S.-led coalition by 2018.

“IS is the kind of movement and group that reformulates and recreates itself,” said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.

Experts say the group will look to exploit the sectarian and ethnic fault lines in Syria to reestablish a foothold in the country.

Underscoring the threat posed by the group, the United States has carried out scores of air strikes against suspected IS hideouts in Syria in recent days.

Sleeper Cells

The U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control northeastern Syria, have warned that IS sleeper cells could attempt to exploit the fluid situation in the country.

A member of the Syrian Democratic Forces (left) stands near IS inmates in a prison in northeast Syria. (file photo)
A member of the Syrian Democratic Forces (left) stands near IS inmates in a prison in northeast Syria. (file photo)

Syria has been gripped by uncertainty since militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S. and EU-designated terrorist organization, seized power and toppled Assad on December 8.

In Damascus, HTS has formed a transitional administration. But it is unclear if it will be able to disarm or coopt disparate armed groups that control different parts of Syria. If HTS cannot, there remains the possibility of a renewed civil war or prolonged instability, experts say.

“The modus operandi of IS is chaos, it's harm, it's targeting civilians,” said Ayub.

Is IS Coming Back After Assad's Fall?
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Thousands of IS fighters and their family members are held in dozens of prison camps controlled by the SDF in northern and eastern Syria.

Anne Speckhard, director of the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism in Washington, said there are still IS supporters in Syria who “routinely engage in terror attacks.”

She said imprisoned IS members hope that these armed supporters “assault the prisons [they’re held in] and free them to reconstitute IS’s territorial caliphate.”

'Keep The Problem At Bay'

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on December 9 that “IS will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens.”

Since December 8, U.S. forces have conducted “precision air strikes” against 75 targets, including “known IS camps and operatives” in central Syria, according to the Pentagon.

Since 2014, Washington has led a global coalition to defeat IS. In October 2019, the United States killed IS founding leader Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. Since then, it has killed three of his successors.

“If the U.S. keeps up the pressure on IS with these air strikes, it can help keep the problem at bay,” said Aymenn Al-Tamimi, an independent Spain-based analyst tracking the extremist group. “It's not necessarily the case that IS manages to regroup and make big gains.”

The key, Tamimi said, is the vast central and eastern desert region in Syria where remnants of IS are still active.

A Russian woman carries her child while waiting in line at a makeshift hospital in a camp in northern Syria housing the families of men who had fought for IS. (file photo)
A Russian woman carries her child while waiting in line at a makeshift hospital in a camp in northern Syria housing the families of men who had fought for IS. (file photo)

The area is largely controlled by the SDF. But in a sign of an impending power struggle, HTS seized control of the oil-rich eastern city of Deir ez-Zor from the SDF on December 11.

“There's been no resolution yet of the relationship between SDF areas and whatever the central authority in Damascus will be,” he said.

Meanwhile, there have been deadly clashes between the SDF and the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), which is loosely allied with HTS.

Tamimi said it is unlikely that IS will swiftly overrun large swaths of Syria as it did back in 2014. But infighting among the various militant and rebel groups in the country could offer it an opening.

“They could take advantage of fighting between the Turkish-backed groups and SDF,” he said.

The Horrors Of Syria's 'Human Slaughterhouse' Spill Into Public View

In this September 2, 2024 satellite image from Planet Lab, Saydnaya prison's two main structures are visible. Most prisoners were housed in the larger building, which was dubbed the "Mercedes Wheel."
In this September 2, 2024 satellite image from Planet Lab, Saydnaya prison's two main structures are visible. Most prisoners were housed in the larger building, which was dubbed the "Mercedes Wheel."

Some shuffled out of the Syrian prison’s gray concrete corridors like zombies rising from a graveyard. Some sobbed as they reunited with long-unseen relatives. Some exulted, crying at newfound freedom from an institution whose brutality earned it the moniker “the human slaughterhouse.”

The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad opened a Pandora’s Box of revelations about the cruelty of the country’s hated internal security services. Exhibit A is the Saydnaya prison, the military-run complex north of Damascus where tens of thousands of prisoners have been held, tortured, and executed over many years.

Between 2011 and 2018, more 30,000 detainees were executed or died of starvation, medical neglect, or from torture, according to estimates by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based war monitor.

An aerial photo shows people gathering at the Saydnaya prison near Damascus on December 9, 2024.
An aerial photo shows people gathering at the Saydnaya prison near Damascus on December 9, 2024.

Saydnaya – whose name is sometimes spelled as Sednaya -- was decidedly a Syrian creation, said Philip Luther, head of research for Amnesty International, to jail and punish alleged Islamic extremists initially, and later, political prisoners or anyone perceived to be a threat to the regime.

Since Assad’s flight over the weekend, activists have flocked to the facility throwing its doors open, releasing people, some of whom reportedly have been held for decades, hammering down walls, and unearthing the horrifying details of the facility’s operations.

A man breaks the lock of a cell in the infamous Saydnaya military prison, just north of Damascus, on December 9.
A man breaks the lock of a cell in the infamous Saydnaya military prison, just north of Damascus, on December 9.

“In short, I’m not aware that the design or operation of Saydnaya prison was guided or inspired by outside entities such as Iran or Russia,” Luther told RFE/RL. “The operation of the prison seems to have responded to the particular security objectives of the Syrian authorities.”

In the hours after the prison’s gates were breached, thousands of people flocked to the facility, many looking for news of relatives.

Other videos verified by RFE/RL showed people, some appearing to be rebels or insurgents, scouring through paper administrative files, while scores of men thronged corridors of the complex celebrating their release.

Other men appeared confused and befuddled inside the complex's first floor, apparently not understanding they had been freed.

"Don't be scared! The regime has fallen! Don't be scared! You are free!" says the narrator of another video verified by RFE/RL. "Leave, old man! Thank God you are safe! You are free!"

"I haven't had a biscuit in 9 years," another man said joyfully, as he also fed another inmate.

Rumors that the complex contained vast, subterranean cell blocks drew people with engineering and demolition equipment, to sledgehammer concrete walls. The White Helmets, a well-known humanitarian organization, brought in jackhammers to drill into floors.

The group issued a statement on December 9 saying that it had not discovered any “unopened or hidden areas in the facility.”

In 2017, the U.S. State Department publicly accused the Syrian government of building a crematorium at Saydnaya, and prison officials killing as many as 50 people day, mainly by hanging, the bodies being dumped in a mass grave. U.S. officials accused Syria of apparently conducting the killings with “unconditional support of Russia and Iran", though officials later qualified that there was no evidence that Russia or Iran were involved with the crematorium.

"This is from Saydnaya prison. This is the food that they're serving. "Those are the cells," one man narrates in another unverified video as he films the interior of the prison. "They feed them cabbage."

Prisoner survivors, relatives, and activists have reported that some inmates had been held in Saydnaya for years -- if not decades. One video that circulated widely but RFE/RL could not independently verify purported to show one man who was incapable of speaking and who had been held in the facility for 13 years.

The jubilation at Saydnaya was echoed elsewhere around Damascus and other cities, in scenes of other prisoners being released and exulting at their freedom.

“Ten years in prison! Ten years!” one newly freed prisoner yelled on December 8, as a crowd of men ran past the Ministry of Energy in Damascus.”

In one video that circulated widely on social media, an unnamed woman who purportedly spent years in various Syrian prisons is shown sobbing as she is reunited with her two young children.

Riyad Avlar, who spent 12 years inside the prison and is now the co-founder of the Turkey-based Association of Detainees and The Missing in Sednaya Prison, likened the facility to what he’s read about North Korea prisons.

“What people should understand is the Assad regime was like Hitler, like the Nazis. Absolutely as bad,” Avlar told RFE/RL.

Iranian Leader Blames Assad's Downfall On U.S., Israel, And Turkey

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first public comments since the rebel takeover of Syria in Tehran on December 11.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first public comments since the rebel takeover of Syria in Tehran on December 11.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in his first public comments since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted, accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating the rebel uprising that toppled the regime over the weekend.

Khamenei on December 11 also implicitly blamed Turkey for the lightning push of Syrian rebels who reached Damascus from their strongholds in the northwest with little resistance.

"It should not be doubted that what happened in Syria was the product of a joint American and Zionist plot," he said.

"Yes, a neighboring government of Syria plays, played, and is playing a clear role…but the main conspirator, mastermind, and command center are in America and the Zionist regime," Khamenei added.

The U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey -- ousted Assad on December 8, less than two weeks after launching their offensive.

Syria under Assad served as a crucial part of a land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, which was considered the logistical backbone of the so-called axis of resistance -- Iran's loose network of regional proxies and allies.

Iran spent billions of dollars and sent military advisers to Syria to ensure Assad remained in power when civil war broke out in 2011.

Russia -- where the ousted Syrian leader has been granted political asylum -- also backed Assad, while Turkey has supported rebel groups who aimed to topple the regime.

A Khamenei adviser once described Syria as the "golden ring" in the chain connecting Iran to its Lebanese partner, Hezbollah. With the ring broken and Hezbollah's capabilities degraded after a devastating war with Israel, experts say the axis has become severely weak.

Khamenei said only "ignorant and uninformed analysts" would assess that the axis has become weak and vowed that its reach "will expand across the region more than before."

Reza Alijani, an Iranian political analyst based in France, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Khamenei's comments were more "trash talk" than anything else.

"The axis may not have been defeated, but it has suffered a serious blow and the Islamic republics arms in the region have been deal major hits," he said.

Alijani argued that factions within the Islamic republic's core support base may be starting to question Khamenei's policies and vision after the recent setbacks, which he said is a cause for concern among the clerical establishment's top brass.

With reporting by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda
Updated

Outside Powers Move To Protect Interests In Syria As Rebel-Backed Interim PM Named

Syrian citizens wave the revolutionary flag and shout slogans as they celebrate in Damascus on December 9.
Syrian citizens wave the revolutionary flag and shout slogans as they celebrate in Damascus on December 9.

Syria's interim prime minister took power with the support of the rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad as outside powers -- including Russia, Turkey, the United States, and Israel -- maneuvered to protect their geopolitical interests in the war-torn Middle East nation.

In an address on recently captured state TV, Muhammad al-Bashir said he would lead Syria's interim authority through March 1 as the new rulers, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants, looked to solidify control after deposing Assad over the weekend.

Little-known Bashir, born in Idlib Province in 1982 and an engineering graduate, had once worked for Syria's state gas entity and has served as head of the rebel's so-called Salvation Government for the past year.

HTS has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. In recent years, the group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government, although Western powers and rights groups remain cautious.

Meanwhile, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, on December 10 told NBC News that Moscow is providing sanctuary to Assad after transporting him there "in the most secure way possible." He didn't provide further details.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on December 9 that President Vladimir Putin made the decision personally to grant asylum to Assad and his family.

Earlier on December 10, loud explosions were heard amid reports Israel has been systematically striking Syrian military installations following the ouster of Assad’s brutal regime.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that the military had struck several Syrian sites and had hit its naval vessels in overnight strikes.

"The [military] has been operating in Syria in recent days to strike and destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel. The navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success," Katz said.

Katz said Israel’s military has been ordered to create a weapons-free zone in southern Syria "to prevent the establishment and organization of terrorism] in the country.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said Israel had "destroyed the most important military sites in Syria," including “airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian governorates."

The reports came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is "transforming the face of the Middle East" and defeating its enemies "step by step" in what he called an "existential war that has been imposed upon us."

Netanyahu said Assad's regime had been a "central element of Iran's axis of evil," accusing it of facilitating a "weapons pipeline" between Iran and the Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, which has been declared a terrorist organization by the United States. Israel has launched a monthslong air campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah.

Washington has also conducted some 75 air strikes on Islamic State (IS) militants, who still have a presence in Syria, in recent days to prevent the group from taking advantage of the turmoil that followed Assad's fall.

"You can expect that kind of activity will continue. We don't want to give [IS] an opportunity to exploit what is going on," White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said on December 10.

The United States has about 900 troops in Syria as part of its decade-long fight against IS.

"[IS] will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on December 9. "As our precision strikes over the weekend demonstrate, we are determined not to let that happen."

Washington said it is seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region, including Turkey, to initiate informal contacts.

"We have the ability to communicate with the opposition groups, and we'll continue to do that," Kirby said in his briefing.

The Syrian Observatory also said IS militants killed at least 54 government soldiers who were fleeing advancing rebels "during the collapse of the regime" in the Sukhna area of Homs Province. The report could not immediately be verified.

Meanwhile, satellite imagery by Planet Labs showed Russian naval ships have left their Syrian base at Tartus, with some dropping anchor offshore.

Imagery showed at least three vessels -- including two guided missile frigates -- some 13 kilometers off the coast.

Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim along with the strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and sub-Saharan Africa.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government has ties to many of the rebel groups involved in the takeover, said Ankara will act against anyone seeking to compromise its Syrian territory.

"From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again.... Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it," he said.

Turkey has claimed U.S.-backed Syrian-Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria to be "terrorists" linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Ankara, as well as by Washington.

Tehran, which was also a long-standing backer of Assad, on December 10 said some 4,000 Iranian citizens have left Syria over the past three days. Iranian proxies are thought to have multiple military sites inside Syria, some of which have been hit by Israeli air attacks, but the government has so far been relatively muted in its response to Assad's fall.


On December 9, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on the situation in Syria called by Russia, which together with Iran, has been a main backer of Assad's regime.

"The Council, I think, was more or less united on the need to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of Syria, to ensure the protection of civilians, to ensure that humanitarian aid is coming to the population in need," said Russia's UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, in a statement released after the meeting.

The Assad Legacy: Civilian Deaths, Sieges, And Chemical Weapons (Video)
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The HTS-led rebels announced on December 9 that they were granting amnesty to all military personnel conscripted during Assad's rule, which began in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had seized power in 1970.

Ahmad al-Sharaa, 42, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has become the public face of HTS, which itself was formerly known as the Al Nusra Front, among other names.

Several European states on December 9 announced they were suspending the granting of asylum requests from Syrians as they awaited developments.

The flood of Syrian refugees during the country's 14-year civil war has often been used by far-right politicians in Europe to inflame passions and bolster their support among voters.

The EU has urged a peaceful political transition in Syria, saying that "it is imperative that all stakeholders engage in an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned dialogue on all key issues."

But EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni said the bloc was "not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders, full stop."

The Syrian civil war began after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal crackdown in March 2011 against peaceful demonstrators inspired by the wave of protests known as the Arab Spring that were sweeping the Middle East at the time.

Beginning in 2015, Russia intervened in the civil war on Assad's side, unleashing a massive bombing campaign against the rebel groups, including Islamist militants, causing numerous civilian casualties and prompting tens of thousands to flee.

The fall of the Assad regime marks a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Iran, has propped up his government, experts say.

With reporting by AP, AFP, and dpa

Western Countries Face Dilemma Over Syria's Blacklisted New Rulers

Syrians wave Syrian and German flags as they rally on December 8 in Berlin to celebrate the end of Bashar al-Assad's rule.
Syrians wave Syrian and German flags as they rally on December 8 in Berlin to celebrate the end of Bashar al-Assad's rule.

With the dust still swirling after the dramatic collapse of the Syrian government, some Western governments have hinted that they may be open to working with emerging new rulers that they currently consider to be part of a terrorist organization.

Three key European capitals have all indicated that they could change their stance on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the blacklisted Islamist militant group that swept into Damascus on December 8.

This came after comments by U.S. President Joe Biden, reflecting on how the group’s rhetoric had changed as it sought to distance itself from its previous affiliation with Al-Qaeda: "As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

President-elect Donald Trump's immediate response revealed little about how Syria policy might evolve on his watch, beyond stating simply that it is "not our fight." But his administration will also have to decide how to deal with Syria.

"I suspect there's going to be a lot of conversation about what kind of government HTS is going to form," said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.

"Maybe we will see some dynamics like we saw with Sudan, with sanctions relief in return for normalization with Israel. So, there are a lot of big questions on the horizon, and I'm not even sure HTS necessarily has the answers [at this stage]."

It is clear the group's position as a leading player in Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad presents Western governments with a dilemma. Previously a relatively minor armed group, controlling Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, it was easy to proscribe and largely ignore.

But HTS now appears too important for that, so Western governments seem to be carefully rowing back.

France’s acting foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told France Info radio on December 8 that HTS was "an Islamist movement” that must “demonstrate its sincere desire to rid the transition of extremism, Islamism, and jihadism." He added that an envoy would leave for Damascus this week.

Germany took a similarly equivocal line. Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said moves by HTS to distance itself from its past would be judged by its treatment of civilians and ethnic and religious minorities.

In Britain, Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden said a "swift decision" would need to be made about whether to remove HTS from the government's list of designated terrorist organizations.

It is not yet clear what role HTS will play in a post-Assad Syria. But if, as seems likely, it emerges as a key player, Western governments appear keen to keep their options open.

"I think the West should deal with the new reality on the ground," said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.

"They should put forward clear benchmarks for HTS, and if they meet them, they should reconsider their sanctions/designations that will only be an impediment to peace and security to post-Assad Syria."

This approach would differ to that taken toward Taliban-run Afghanistan. There, Western governments have kept their distance from an extremist group whose widespread human rights abuses and severe restrictions on women they have repeatedly condemned.

"I don't see HTS doing things like banning girls from going to school. I think they are more moderate than the Taliban," said U.S.-based analyst Ayub.

"HTS has a lot of questions to ask themselves, because fighting a war is very different than governing a country. And we saw, you know, the Taliban struggle to make this shift in Afghanistan. I still think there are a lot of open questions."

And even as Western governments appeared to shift cautiously on HTS, they have also made it clear that they take nothing on trust. Biden stressed that the group had its own "grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses."

They are also readying for a scenario in which a stable new government fails to emerge, and the threat of a resurgence by the Islamic State (IS) extremist group. On December 8, U.S. officials said warplanes carried out strikes on what they called 75 IS targets in Syria.

Another concern is stocks of chemical weapons held by the Assad government, and whose hands they might now fall into. Israel said it had struck facilities in connection with this.

The situation in Syria also has a potential impact on domestic politics in a number of countries. Millions of Syrians fled the country's devastating civil war that erupted in 2011, and questions are being asked about how many of them will wish -- or be able -- to return home.

Hundreds of them have formed lines on Syria's borders with Lebanon and Turkey. The presence of large Syrian refugee populations has been a source of tension in both countries, as it has been in Europe.

In Germany, it was announced that asylum decisions for Syrians would be frozen until the situation became clearer. A senior opposition figure called for financial incentives for Syrian refugees to return. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said it was "too soon" for such talk.

Fall Of Assad Unravels Iran's Decades-Old 'Axis Of Resistance'

A bullet-riddled portrait of Bashar al-Assad in the city of Hama
A bullet-riddled portrait of Bashar al-Assad in the city of Hama

Iran spent decades building the so-called axis of resistance, its network of regional armed proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors.

The network was the lynchpin of Tehran's efforts to deter Israel and the United States and exert its influence across the Middle East.

But the fall of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Tehran, has done irreparable damage to the network, analysts say.

For Iran, Syria provided a crucial land corridor to the Levant that was considered the logistical backbone of the axis. The corridor, also known as the Shi'ite Crescent, connected Tehran to the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, a key ally and an integral part of the axis.

"There is no axis without access," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "The resistance is not done, but losing the ability to logistically support Hezbollah means the loss of Iran's strategic depth."

Broken Corridor

Underscoring Syria's importance, Iran spent billions of dollars to keep Assad in power.

Tehran intervened militarily in Syria's civil war in 2013 and played a key role in shoring up Assad's forces. It deployed hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets Syria's then-president, Bashar al-Assad, in Tehran in February 2019.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets Syria's then-president, Bashar al-Assad, in Tehran in February 2019.

After the loss of the land corridor connecting axis members from Iran to Lebanon, "we are likely to see a much-diminished resistance in the coming months and years," said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

The axis, he said, will have "a considerably lower capacity to rebuild or conduct military operations in the future."

At its height, the axis was active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and was meant to give Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability.

But the axis has suffered a series of debilitating setbacks in recent months.

Syria is now effectively ruled by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey, Iran's rival. The HTS seized power in Damascus on December 8.

Syrian opposition fighters celebrate after the Syrian government collapsed in Damascus, December 8.
Syrian opposition fighters celebrate after the Syrian government collapsed in Damascus, December 8.

Hezbollah has been severely weakened after a bruising, yearlong war with Israel, which killed the group's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Meanwhile, Israel's devastating war in the Gaza Strip has diminished the capabilities of U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, another axis member.

Events in Syria "will certainly place significantly more restraints on Iran’s ability to maintain its regional influence," said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies.

Iran's 'Very Bad' Options

Weakened regionally, Iran now has tough decisions to make, including reconsidering its deterrence strategy and possibly developing a nuclear bomb, experts say.

Zimmt says Iran has two "very bad options" -- to do nothing and recognize that its deterrence against Israel has been compromised, or weaponize its nuclear program and expose itself to the possibility of an Israeli attack.

Things look equally grim for Iran’s axis of resistance, according to Sabet, who says Tehran will be under pressure to pull back its regional activities.

Sabet says Iran will seek to exploit any potential chaos in the region, including in post-Assad Syria, to reassert its influence.

"If the civil war in Syria is not quickly settled and a new order created, it might become precisely the type of environment where the Islamic republic has historically thrived," Sabet said.

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