Middle East
- By Abubakar Siddique and
- Meliha Kesmer
Islamic State Seeks Comeback Amid Power Vacuum In Syria
The Islamic State (IS) has been considered a largely spent force for years, with its remnants present in the vast desert that straddles the border between Syria and Iraq.
But the extremist group could attempt to exploit the power vacuum in Syria, where militants toppled longtime President Bashar al-Assad, to make a resurgence, experts warn.
IS militants stunned the world when they seized large swaths of Syria and Iraq and declared a self-styled caliphate in 2014. But they had been largely defeated by a U.S.-led coalition by 2018.
“IS is the kind of movement and group that reformulates and recreates itself,” said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.
Experts say the group will look to exploit the sectarian and ethnic fault lines in Syria to reestablish a foothold in the country.
Underscoring the threat posed by the group, the United States has carried out scores of air strikes against suspected IS hideouts in Syria in recent days.
Sleeper Cells
The U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control northeastern Syria, have warned that IS sleeper cells could attempt to exploit the fluid situation in the country.
Syria has been gripped by uncertainty since militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S. and EU-designated terrorist organization, seized power and toppled Assad on December 8.
In Damascus, HTS has formed a transitional administration. But it is unclear if it will be able to disarm or coopt disparate armed groups that control different parts of Syria. If HTS cannot, there remains the possibility of a renewed civil war or prolonged instability, experts say.
“The modus operandi of IS is chaos, it's harm, it's targeting civilians,” said Ayub.
Thousands of IS fighters and their family members are held in dozens of prison camps controlled by the SDF in northern and eastern Syria.
Anne Speckhard, director of the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism in Washington, said there are still IS supporters in Syria who “routinely engage in terror attacks.”
She said imprisoned IS members hope that these armed supporters “assault the prisons [they’re held in] and free them to reconstitute IS’s territorial caliphate.”
'Keep The Problem At Bay'
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on December 9 that “IS will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens.”
Since December 8, U.S. forces have conducted “precision air strikes” against 75 targets, including “known IS camps and operatives” in central Syria, according to the Pentagon.
Since 2014, Washington has led a global coalition to defeat IS. In October 2019, the United States killed IS founding leader Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. Since then, it has killed three of his successors.
“If the U.S. keeps up the pressure on IS with these air strikes, it can help keep the problem at bay,” said Aymenn Al-Tamimi, an independent Spain-based analyst tracking the extremist group. “It's not necessarily the case that IS manages to regroup and make big gains.”
The key, Tamimi said, is the vast central and eastern desert region in Syria where remnants of IS are still active.
The area is largely controlled by the SDF. But in a sign of an impending power struggle, HTS seized control of the oil-rich eastern city of Deir ez-Zor from the SDF on December 11.
“There's been no resolution yet of the relationship between SDF areas and whatever the central authority in Damascus will be,” he said.
Meanwhile, there have been deadly clashes between the SDF and the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), which is loosely allied with HTS.
Tamimi said it is unlikely that IS will swiftly overrun large swaths of Syria as it did back in 2014. But infighting among the various militant and rebel groups in the country could offer it an opening.
“They could take advantage of fighting between the Turkish-backed groups and SDF,” he said.
More News
- By RFE/RL
First Phase Of Gaza Cease-Fire Nears End With Release Of 6 Israeli Hostages
The U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas has released six Israeli hostages -- the last living hostages from a group of 33 that were expected to be freed in the first phase of the Gaza cease-fire.
Hamas had held two of those released for around a decade since they entered Gaza on their own.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog in a statement on X celebrated their release "from the depths of hell to begin the process of healing and recovery alongside their loving families."
In return, Israel is set to free 602 Palestinian prisoners, including convicted felons and Gazans detained following the start of the war, to complete the final hostage-prisoner swap of the first phase of the truce. Those handed the longest sentences are not allowed back in Gaza and will be sent to a third country.
The multiphase ceasefire went into effect on January 19, but negotiations have not yet started to move to the crucial second phase, which involves a permanent end to the Gaza war.
"The completion of a hostage deal is a humanitarian, moral, and Jewish imperative," Herzog wrote on X.
The conflict broke out on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked settlements in southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages to Gaza.
Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed tens of thousands of people, according to local authorities, and displaced most of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents.
Hamas has been strongly criticized for its stage-managed release of Israeli hostages, which have included public ceremonies during which hostages are taken on stage.
The United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross slammed Hamas this week for parading the bodies of dead Israeli hostages in Gaza.
The militant Palestinian group on February 20 handed over the bodies of four hostages to the Red Cross, after presenting their coffins on a stage surrounded by armed militants.
The bodies included two children and their mother Shiri Bibas, but Israeli authorities said the body in the coffin was not hers. This threatened the tenuous cease-fire as Israel accused Hamas of being in “serious violation” of the truce.
However, Hamas delivered another body late on February 21, which Bibas’s family confirmed to be hers.
The Palestinian group insists the family was killed in an Israeli airstrike, but Israel says forensics show the mother and her young children were “deliberately” killed by their captors.
The final four sets of remains, completing the hostage release of the first phase, will be released next week.
Mediators say both sides plan to begin a second round of negotiations focused on securing the release of about 60 remaining hostages -- fewer than half of whom are believed to be alive --and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
However, prospects for an agreement have been complicated by disputes over Gaza’s future, further inflamed by regional outrage over U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal to remove Palestinians from the enclave and transform it into a U.S.-controlled resort.
- By Kian Sharifi
Why Is Saudi Arabia Seeking To Mediate A Deal Between U.S. And Iran?
After facilitating the first high-level talks between U.S. and Russian officials since the Ukraine war began, Saudi Arabia is now reportedly positioning itself as a mediator in another high-stakes negotiation -- this time between the United States and Iran.
CNN, which first broke the story, reports that it remains unclear whether the Saudis have formally offered to mediate. Still, analysts suggest Riyadh has strong incentives to broker talks and may be better positioned than traditional mediators to bring the U.S. and Iran to the negotiating table.
“Riyadh is looking for a way to address concerns around Iran's nuclear program, as well as its regional activities and its support for proxies,” says Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
“Given Riyadh's interest in avoiding an escalation in the Gulf, it probably sees diplomacy as a more effective means of addressing these issues, rather than military action,” he added.
Saudi Seeking Stability
Saudi Arabia cut relations with Iran in 2016 after its diplomatic missions were attacked by protesters angry over Riyadh’s execution of a top Shi’ite cleric. Two years later, when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Saudis were among Iran’s adversaries who celebrated the move.
In 2019, Yemen’s Iran-backed Huthi rebels launched a major drone and missile attack against Saudi oil facilities, severely disrupting the Kingdom’s crude production.
But much has changed since then, thanks to a Chinese-brokered deal in March 2023 that led to the restoration of relations between Tehran and Riyadh.
Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has long sought to position his country as a global economic and diplomatic powerhouse under his Vision 2030 plan, which aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil.
To achieve that, however, Saudi Arabia needs stability in the Middle East.
“Saudi Arabia's willingness to moderate between Tehran and Washington was not borne of a political vacuum,” said Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
“By stylistically accommodating Tehran through diplomatic normalization but substantively remaining in the Western orbit, Riyadh is hoping to insulate itself from being the place where a larger regional conflict involving Iran is adjudicated.”
While the Islamic republic officially insists it is not pursuing a nuclear weapon, there has been growing discussion in Iran about weaponizing its nuclear program -- especially as Tehran's regional proxies, long seen as its primary deterrent against Israel and the United States, have suffered setbacks.
Abdulaziz Sager, the chairman of the Saudi Arabia-based Gulf Research Center, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Riyadh “firmly says” it’s up to Iran whether it wants to maintain its peaceful nuclear program.
He added, however, that Iran’s expansion of its nuclear program following Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear accord “does not give assurances” that it will remain peaceful.
Iranian Incentives
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last month dismissed the prospect of direct talks with Trump over a new nuclear deal, insisting that the U.S. president cannot be trusted.
This is where Saudi Arabia can prove decisive and flex its diplomatic muscles, experts say.
On paper, the Saudis can offer to the Iranians things that traditional mediators, namely Oman and Qatar, may not be able to offer, said Brew.
Saudi Arabia has arguably benefitted more than Iran from the 2023 normalization deal, with many in Iran complaining that Tehran has gained little economically from restoring relations with the Sunni powerhouse.
“Iran is looking for ways of ensuring that it's going to receive a degree of economic benefit from an agreement, and Saudi Arabia is a natural way of obtaining that if the Saudis can offer investment, trade, and other benefits,” Brew said.
Another incentive for agreeing to Saudi mediation is that just like former U.S. President Barack Obama could not guarantee that the Trump administration would remain in the 2015 nuclear deal, Trump cannot allay Iranian concerns about the next administration sticking to the deal.
“On the other hand, [Muhammad bin Salman] is going to be around for a long time, and there’s the potential for Saudi offers to sweeten the deal,” Brew argued.
Iran and the U.S. initially held secret talks in 2013 before holding public meetings that eventually led to the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015.
“Iran is likely to engage, especially if it is private, and force concessions simply for staying at the table or for turning off the spigot to activities it can easily resume at a time of its own choosing,” FDD’s Taleblu said.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this story.
- By Kian Sharifi
Can Israel Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program?
U.S. intelligence has concluded that the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program in the next few months are high, according to major American media, but the jury is out on whether Israel can destroy its archfoe's nuclear facilities on its own.
Iran is widely believed to be at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades, mostly due to Israeli actions in the past year that severely damaged Tehran's regional network and weakened its air defenses and missile production capabilities.
This assessment is "not strange" because the possibility has been floated for months, specifically following Israeli strikes on Iran last October, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"But this now being reported by major outlets could be linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's approach toward Iran, which is a mixture of a desire to strike a nuclear deal while threatening military action," he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Potential Israeli Attack
The Israeli attack last October was in response to the Islamic republic launching 200 ballistic missiles, which penetrated Israel's formidable air defenses but caused little damage.
While Tehran downplayed the impact of the Israeli attack, satellite images quickly showed Israel had successfully degraded Iran's air defense and missile-production capabilities.
Analysts say the attack was calibrated, thanks to pressure from former U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, which convinced Israel not to hit Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure.
The attack marked the largest aerial offensive against Iran since the 1980s and showed that Israel can target facilities deep inside Iranian territory.
But Israel is unlikely to be able to destroy Iran's nuclear program without help from the United States.
Iran's two key nuclear sites are the underground fuel enrichment plant in Natanz and the enrichment site in Fordow, which is dug into a mountain. Some have expressed doubt about whether even U.S. weapons can reliably penetrate and completely neutralize those facilities.
Since taking office in January, Trump has expressed a desire to make a "verifiable nuclear peace agreement" with Iran, but his language has become noticeably more threatening over time. While Trump initially talked about wanting to see Iran "prosper", he more recently said he would "love to make a deal with them without bombing them."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a staunch critic of negotiating with Iran and he opposed the 2015 nuclear deal that was signed during U.S. President Barack Obama's administration.
While Netanyahu has a great rapport with Trump, there is no guarantee that he will reconsider attacking Iran's nuclear sites if Trump were to reach a deal with Tehran.
"For Netanyahu, no deal with Iran is better than any deal. He probably worries that Trump might give away the whole store to the Iranians," says Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
Advanced Nuclear Program
Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear program since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term in office and reimposed sanctions against Tehran.
The Islamic republic insists that its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no intention to develop a bomb.
But it is now enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels and far above the 3.67 percent limit under the nuclear accord. As of October 2024, Iran has just over 182 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent. Around 42 kilograms are needed to produce one bomb, meaning Tehran has enough to make four bombs.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in its 2024 annual threat report that it does not believe Iran is currently pursuing a bomb, but its activities in recent years "better position it to produce a nuclear device."
If the Islamic republic chose to make a bomb, it would be mainly limited by the time required to build a deliverable nuclear warhead, which can take anywhere from a few months to two years.
The New York Times earlier this month reported that there are indications Iran is looking into quickly building a crude nuclear weapon to ward off an attack.
But the D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security argues that even if Iran were to build a crude weapon in half a year, it risks being detected in just a few months, which "is more than sufficient for a devastating military response."
Vaez said while there is a military option in dealing with Iran's nuclear program, there is no military solution.
"Iran's most important asset is the knowledge that it has gained, not the physical infrastructure on the ground or in bunkered facilities," he added.
Fereshteh Ghazi of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this story.
Aga Khan Buried In Egypt After Shia-Ismaili Muslims Commemorate Spiritual Leader
Spiritual leader and business magnate Prince Karim Aga Khan, considered by his followers to be a direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, was laid to rest in Aswan, Egypt today. He was remembered fondly by admirers in Pakistan and Lisbon a day earlier on February 8. Shia-Ismaili Muslims around the world reflected on Aga Khan's advocacy for peace, interfaith harmony, women's rights, and his philanthropy work. With a lifelong passion for design and architecture, Aga Khan poured a financial empire built on billions of dollars in tithes into building homes, hospitals, and schools in developing countries. He died on February 4 at 88.
- By RFE/RL
Trump Signs Order Imposing Sanctions On International Criminal Court
U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order slapping sanctions on officials with the International Criminal Court for opening investigations targeting the United States and Israel.
Trump's order said the court in The Hague “has engaged in illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel.”
The executive order, signed by Trump on February 6, said those actions “set a dangerous precedent, directly endangering current and former United States personnel,” including members of the U.S. military.
The order refers to an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his actions toward Palestinians in Gaza and recent actions by the court that endanger members of the U.S. military.
The order was signed after Netanyahu visited Trump at the White House on February 4. It notes that neither the United States nor Israel are members of the court.
Trump’s order imposes sanctions, including barring ICC officials, employees, and family members from entering the United States and freezes any assets they hold in U.S. jurisdiction. The sanctions also apply to anyone deemed to have helped the court's investigations.
The ICC issued arrest warrants on November 21 for Netanyahu, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif -- who Israel says is dead.
The warrants are for "crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024."
Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, that killed some 1,200 people, mostly Israeli citizens, and took hundreds of others hostage. A subsequent Israeli offensive aimed at neutralizing Hamas has killed tens of thousands of people, mostly in the Gaza Strip.
Trump in 2020 during his first administration imposed financial sanctions and a visa ban on the ICC's then-prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, and other senior officials and staff. The move came after Bensouda launched an investigation into allegations of war crimes against U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan.
President Joe Biden lifted the sanctions soon after taking office in 2021.
ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan,Khan later effectively dropped the United States from the Afghan investigation.
With reporting by AFP
- By Kian Sharifi
Why Trump's Gaza Takeover Proposal Has Drawn Strong Reactions Worldwide
U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to displace Palestinians from Gaza and have the United States take control of the territory has drawn strong reaction worldwide, potentially upending Washington’s longstanding Israeli-Palestinian policy.
"The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip and we will do a job with it, too. We'll own it," Trump said during a joint press conference at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 4.
Details about how the radical proposal, first made last month, would work were not clear, including under what authority the United States could take control of the Gaza Strip, or how the 2.3 million residents would be relocated.
Many established Middle East foreign policy experts deem the plan unworkable and suggest the U.S. administration reconsider its stance due to the staunch opposition it has encountered.
“This has no realistic prospect, and I think once the administration sees the opposition, they’ll pull back from this whole thing,” said Azriel Bermant, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague.
Cease-Fire Deal In The Balance
There are further concerns that the proposal risks damaging a fragile cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that has run Gaza since 2007.
The multiphase cease-fire, which went into effect last month, temporarily paused more than a year of fighting in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
“The fear is that [Trump’s proposal] could do damage to the possibilities of getting the remaining hostages out,” Bermant said.
The crucial second phase of the cease-fire agreement envisions a permanent end to the war, but negotiations have not even started to iron out the details and implement it.
"There is a risk that this could hurt efforts" to agree on and execute the second phase of the cease-fire, Bermant said.
Allies, Adversaries Up In Arms
Prominent Arab nations, including those that have normalized relations with Israel, jointly rejected Trump’s recent demand for Egypt and Jordan to accept Gaza residents.
Now, Trump has upped the ante by suggesting that, not only does he want Gazans relocated, but intends for the United States to take control and turn Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East."
Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas has rejected Trump’s proposal and said that “legitimate Palestinian rights are not negotiable.”
U.S. allies and adversaries have also criticized the plan and renewed calls for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
The French Foreign Ministry asserted that relocating Palestinians would be a “serious violation of international law” and insisted that Gaza cannot be controlled by “a third state.”
The Saudis, who maintain good relations with Trump, warned that they “will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without” a sovereign Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Trump aims for regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia to join Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in normalizing relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, but it’s hard to see this moving forward in tandem with his current Gaza proposal.
China and Russia have also expressed opposition to the forced transfer of Palestinians.
Around 2.4 million registered Palestinian refugees currently live in Jordan, according to UN figures. Many of them have been displaced for generations while fighting for their right of return under international law. There is a lack of official data on Palestinian refugee numbers in Egypt, but reports say at least 115,000 Gaza residents have crossed the border into Egypt since the outbreak of the war in October 2023.
The View From Israel
Trump’s plan will undoubtedly be welcomed by hard-liners in Netanyahu's cabinet, as well as many Israeli citizens.
Some are suggesting that this is crucial for Israel's security while others argue it might even be the most humanitarian solution for a population who have no homes to go back to after the widespread destruction of Gaza.
But for many moderate Israelis, who are supportive of the two-state solution, the worry is that this could backfire badly.
Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid likened the proposal to “dropping a bomb” whose ramifications were difficult to predict.
Challenging U.S. Policy
The United States has actively backed a two-state solution since the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, which envisioned both Gaza and the West Bank as part of a Palestinian state.
All U.S. administrations since then have supported a two-state solution, but Trump appears to be shifting a long-standing U.S. policy.
"There is no power in the world that can determine where Palestinians will live. This is our country,” Samir al-Barawi, a Palestinian refugee in Bosnia, told RFE/RL’s Balkan Service.
“Trump cannot decide where we will live. We were born in Gaza and only death can take people out of Gaza.”
Barawi said he, like other Palestinians, would like to return to Gaza one day, “but not as tourists.”
Trump has not publicly commented on whether he supports an Israeli annexation of the West Bank, but when asked about it on February 4, he said Israel is a “small country in terms of land.”
Bermant reiterated that Trump’s Gaza proposal was unlikely to be implemented and argued that a “bigger concern” is whether the U.S. president is going to allow the Netanyahu government to annex the West Bank.
“That would be a huge shift [in U.S. policy],” he said.
With reporting by Meliha Kesmer of RFE/RL's Balkan Service
- By Kian Sharifi
Eyeing Regional Powers, Syria Is Freezing Iran Out
Rebel leader-turned-Syrian ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa has received scores of foreign delegations since seizing power in Damascus in December -- but not one of them was Iranian.
To drive his point home, Sharaa made trips to Iran's regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Turkey a priority soon after being declared Syria's interim president.
Iran being frozen out by Syria's new rulers is hardly surprising. After all, Tehran spent billions of dollars, dispatched military advisers, and set up proxies in Syria to help former President Bashar al-Assad crack down on dissent and fight rebel forces opposed to his government when civil war broke out in 2011.
"After tens of thousands being killed by Iran, its allies, and proxies in Syria, there's no love lost for them nor much of an urge for rapprochement," said Phillip Smyth, an expert on developments in the Middle East and Iranian proxies.
'Door Closed' To Tehran
Even conservative Iranian media see Sharaa's Saudi trip as a signal to Iran that Damascus has moved out of Tehran's orbit.
"I can't see how it wouldn't be interpreted as a message to Tehran, given Saudi is one of their major regional foes," said Smyth.
Sharaa, head of the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has long tried to change his public image. He has publicly renounced his ties to Al-Qaeda and tried to portray himself as a pragmatist and tolerant leader.
He stopped using his rebel moniker Abu Muhammad al-Jolani after toppling the Assad government and has set out to lift sanctions on Syria and rebuild the country after over a decade of civil war.
Masoud Aflak, a political analyst based in the United Arab Emirates, said Sharaa's Saudi trip was "an important step" toward lifting Western sanctions, acquiring funds to rebuild Syria, and establishing security in the post-Assad era.
"The interim president is aware that to lift sanctions, Syria needs a country that can be its voice on the world stage," he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Saudi Arabia's overture to Sharaa is notable in that Riyadh views Islamist movements as an existential threat.
"Saudi Arabia sees an opportunity based in pragmatism when dealing with Syria," Smyth said. "Now, Saudis, along with other states (including European ones) are testing the waters. They're trying to see what the next chapter will be in Damascus and have more of a chance for influence than with the last regime."
Aflak said the primary concern for the Saudis is to ensure there is no power vacuum in Syria that extremist groups and Iran-backed proxies can use.
"Instability in Syria will not be contained to Syria and will spill over to other countries," Aflak argued.
Sharaa's trip carries another message -- this one directed at Sunni regional actors, according to Smyth.
"It's opening its doors to competitive actors with their own regional geopolitical issues," he said. "Qatar and Saudi come to mind. There's already a relationship with Turkey. The door has been shut to Iran."
Even Russia Gets A Nod
The only other state ally of Assad was Russia, which helped the former Syrian leader maintain his grip on power throughout his reign -- particularly in the years after its major military intervention in 2015 -- and took him in when he was pushed from power.
Unlike Iran, Russia seems to have had some success connecting with Syria's new rulers. It has maintained contact with Damascus and even sent a delegation to speak to Sharaa last week in the hopes of salvaging its military bases in Syria.
"Iran tried to fundamentally change Syria and was overt in these measures. It was sectarian and ideological in nature," Smyth said. "Russia, despite its clear use of cruel violence against civilians, still was a bit more pragmatic."
Crucially, Smyth added, Russia "provides a better counterweight" to Western powers looking cautiously to establish relations with Damascus.
However, Iran, having watched its loose network of regional allies and proxies unravel over the past year, has little to offer Syria.
"Even their oil doesn't carry much value when links to the Gulf have been renewed," Smyth said.
Room To Wiggle Back?
Syria under Assad served as a crucial part of a land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, which was considered the logistical backbone of its regional network of state and nonstate actors. Losing Assad has, therefore, dealt a heavy blow to the so-called axis of resistance.
The Iranian government has not ruled out establishing relations with Sharaa's government, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying Iran endorses any government elected by the Syrian people.
But that message runs contrary to comments by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who last month backed "Syrian youth" to rise against Sharaa.
For his part, Sharaa does not seem interested in striking up a relationship with Tehran. He has banned Israelis and Iranians from entering Syria and is reportedly seeking compensation from the Islamic republic for damages caused during the civil war.
That basically leaves Iran with one option: Capitalize on reports of sectarian violence under the new interim government to prop up armed Shi'ite militias to challenge Sharaa.
"They may try to rally some support for violence within Syria. Instability and the crafting of it has always been a usable option for Iran," Smyth said.
But given Iran's many challenges at home and abroad, that is easier said than done.
With reporting by Elaheh Ravanshad of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By RFE/RL
Trump Withdraws U.S. From UN Human Rights Council, Aid Agency For Palestinians
U.S. President Donald Trump announced the U.S. withdrawal from the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) and said Washington will not renew funding for the UN agency helping Palestinian refugees.
Trump signed an executive order on February 4 just before meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose country has long accused both UNHRC and the Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) of bias against Israel and antisemitism.
The executive order said the United States helped found the United Nations after World War II to prevent future global conflicts and promote international peace and security. But some UN agencies “have drifted from this mission and instead act contrary to the interests of the United States while attacking our allies and propagating anti-Semitism,” it said.
UNRWA has reportedly been infiltrated by members of groups long designated as foreign terrorist organizations, according to the order, while UNHRC has protected human rights abusers by allowing them to use the organization to shield themselves from scrutiny.
The executive order also said the United States would review involvement in the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).
The executive order said UNESCO has demonstrated failure to reform itself, continually demonstrated anti-Israel sentiment over the past decade, and failed to address concerns over mounting debts.
The order also set up a broad review of U.S. funding for multilateral organizations to be completed within 180 days. The review is to determine in part which organizations, conventions, and treaties “are contrary to the interests of the United States" and whether they can be reformed.
Trump also pulled the United States out of the Human Rights Council during his first term in office. The U.S. ambassador to the UN at the time, Nikki Haley, accused the council of “chronic bias against Israel” and pointed to what she said were human rights abusers among its members.
President Joe Biden renewed support for the 47-member UNHRC, but announced in September that the United States would not seek a second consecutive term.
The council's activities include reviews of countries' human rights records and specific allegations of rights abuses.
UNRWA is currently providing humanitarian assistance to many of the 1.9 million people displaced by the war in Gaza who depend on its deliveries for survival.
U.S. funding of UNRWA was halted in January 2024 by Biden after Israel accused 12 of its employees of involvement in Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack.
A series of probes found some "neutrality related issues" at UNRWA, but no evidence for Israel's chief allegations, and most other donors that had similarly suspended funding resumed their financial support.
Trump said based on the UN's “great potential” the United States would “continue to go along with it,” but added that the primary purpose of the United Nations should be settling conflicts.
A spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Guterres has worked tirelessly to implement many reforms and increase efficiency and innovation.
Stephane Dujarric added that U.S. support for the United Nations has saved countless lives and advanced global security.
"The secretary-general looks forward to continuing his productive relationship with President Trump and the U.S. government to strengthen that relationship in today’s turbulent world," Dujarric said.
With reporting by Reuters and AP
- By RFE/RL
Trump Proposes Palestinians Leave Gaza To Clear Way For U.S. 'Ownership'
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a proposal on February 4 under which displaced Palestinians would leave the Gaza Strip, allowing the United States to take ownership of the coastal territory and develop it economically into a “phenomenal” place where many nationalities could live in peace.
Trump said this would occur after the resettlement of the Palestinian people to other countries to get them out of what he said was a “hell hole” of demolished buildings following more than a year of war between Israel and Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
Trump made the surprise proposal at a joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying such a drastic move is necessary because other ideas to end decades of conflict between the Palestinian people and Israelis have not worked.
His proposal on the Gaza Strip would see the United States taking it over and would appear to upend years of U.S. policy calling for a two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Trump said the United States would work to dismantle all unexploded bombs and other weapons in the territory and clear away destroyed buildings before economically developing the area.
"If it's necessary, we'll do that, we're going to take over that piece, we're going to develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs, and it'll be something that the entire Middle East can be very proud of," Trump added.
The president did not immediately offer details on where the Palestinians would be resettled, but said he would support resettling them "permanently" in other countries. Earlier in the day he repeated his call for Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab states to take in Gazans. Hamas has adamantly insisted it wants to remain in Gaza.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Trump may have floated this idea to raise the stakes after Arab countries refused his request to take in Palestinians.
"Now, he’s cranking up the pressure: If you won't take them, we’ll remove them ourselves and take control of Gaza," Dubowitz said on X. "Classic Trump: Go to the extreme, making what once seemed outrageous suddenly look like the reasonable middle ground."
The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement that its call for an independent Palestinian state was a "firm, steadfast, and unwavering position."
The statement noted Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's de facto ruler, has said Saudi Arabia will not stop working toward the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.
Trump said he had discussed his proposal with Netanyahu during their meeting at the White House. He also said he had raised it with other leaders of countries in the Middle East and claimed it had been met favorably.
Netanyahu said Trump sees a different future for the Gaza Strip, which he said has been the source of so many "trials and tribulations" for the Israeli people.
"He has a different idea," Netanyahu said. "It's something that could change history and it's worthwhile really pursuing this avenue.”
Just two weeks into his second term, Trump was hosting Netanyahu to discuss the future of the Gaza cease-fire, the release of hostages, and a renewed push for a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
With reporting by Reuters and AP
- By Ray Furlong
As Netanyahu Visits The White House, Could Trump's Gaza Plan Happen?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives at the White House on February 4 as Donald Trump's first guest since his inauguration at a critical juncture in the Gaza cease-fire -- and amid ongoing controversy about the U.S. president's idea of removing the Palestinian population from the strip.
The meeting comes just as talks were due to begin on phase two of the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States.
"This is a very significant meeting that to a large extent will dictate the trajectory of the whole war and the deal down the road," Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer, told RFE/RL.
Speculation about the talks has swirled, with some analysts suggesting Trump will seek to push Netanyahu to drive the process forward and avoid a return to war. "It's basically to try to end the situation as soon as possible," said Melamed.
But the visit also comes just days after Trump called for Palestinians from Gaza to be moved to Egypt and Jordan. The plan to "clean out" the strip, as he put it, would mean "they could maybe live in peace for a change," he said.
This suggestion has been welcomed by some hard-liners in Netanyahu's cabinet but has met indignation in Arab countries. This position appears to broadly reflect public opinion in these countries.
"In the Middle East, it's seen as unworkable, undesirable, illegal," Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, told RFE/RL.
"This has been a red line for Egypt not just during the era of President [Abdel-Fattah] Sisi but going back to [former President Hosni] Mubarak that they would not accept Gaza being dumped on Egypt," he added.
Several million Palestinians already live in Jordan, and tens of thousands in Egypt. Trump appeared to suggest their dependence on huge levels of U.S. military and financial aid would make them comply.
"We do a lot for them, and they are going to do it," he said on January 30.
Melamed said that some voices on Arab social media were challenging official positions.
"People are saying: The Palestinians in Gaza have nothing to go back to. There are no homes, there are no services," he said, summarizing the argument as: "I want to have a future for me and my kids, and I want to have a house and not a tent."
Melamed acknowledged that views such as this did not amount to a trend.
Doyle says Trump's comments could be "an opening negotiating tactic, knowing full well they're not going to take 1.5 million refugees."
Instead, Doyle says, "he might get them to do a token amount, maybe 100,000 each, or he might get them to be more pliable on another issue."
Other Israeli observers are also deeply skeptical about Trump's idea.
Writing on the Haaretz news website, veteran commentator and retired Israeli Army officer Zvi Bar'el said Trump's Gaza proposal could endanger the current cease-fire in Gaza. He said it may lead to a decision by Hamas not to release Israeli hostages.
"Freeing all the hostages requires Israel not only to end the war but also to refrain from resuming it and start discussing Gaza's rehabilitation. If Trump's transfer idea is on the table, however, the demand to scrap it may become a key condition brought forward by Hamas, risking the deal's continuation," he wrote.
Another possible element to the Trump-Netanyahu talks will be the prospects for Israel to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Israel, via Riyadh, last week.
A deal would be hugely significant following the Abraham Accords which established diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain during the first Trump administration.
But the death and destruction wrought by Israel in Gaza following the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas are widely seen as having made the deal politically difficult for Saudi Arabia for the time being.
Additionally, Riyadh has linked formalizing ties with Israel to a two-state solution with a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank.
At the weekend, Saudi Arabia signed up to a joint statement with Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the Palestinian Authority, and the Arab League condemning the idea of a population transfer.
"We affirm our rejection of [any attempts] to compromise Palestinians' unalienable rights, whether through settlement activities, or evictions, or annex of land, or through vacating the land from its owners," the statement said.
- By Kian Sharifi
Will Trump's Gaza Proposal Sink Or Save The Two-State Solution?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to “clean out” the Gaza Strip and move Palestinians to neighboring countries has been met with skepticism.
The forced displacement of Gaza’s 2.3-million population to Egypt and Jordan could destabilize the region and derail any prospects for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, experts say.
But the proposal could also shift the responsibility to U.S. allies in the region to come up with a solution to one of the world’s most intractable conflicts, according to observers.
“Trump is taking the most extreme position on a hugely sensitive issue as part of a broader negotiation on Gaza and Israel,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
“By pressuring key U.S. allies who are indeed dependent on the U.S. for aid and security, he hopes to see his aim of burden sharing achieved,” Vakil said.
Future Of Two-State Solution
Washington has for decades backed a two-state solution that would see the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
But progress has been hindered by deep differences among Israelis and Palestinians over borders, settlements, and the status of Jerusalem.
Palestinians also insist that any future Palestinian state must include the Gaza Strip, which is why Trump’s proposal has raised concern among not only critics but also U.S. allies, including Germany.
“Trump has yet to articulate a clear view on the two-state solution or the way forward in the Israel-Palestine conflict, but if U.S. policy is leaning toward displacing Palestinians from Gaza, that suggests limited scope for positive progress on the issue,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
Many of Gaza’s inhabitants were displaced and much of the Palestinian enclave was destroyed after Israel’s devastating 15-month war against Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group. The conflict was triggered by an unprecedented attack by Hamas in Israel in October 2023.
The fighting has been paused for six weeks as part of a multiphase cease-fire deal agreed on January 15 that envisions a permanent end to the war and the rebuilding of Gaza.
Trump, who floated his proposal on January 25, said the potential displacement of Gazans “could be temporary, could be long term.”
Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, said there is widespread support for transferring Palestinians out of Gaza among the Israeli far right because they think “Israel can occupy the territory and build new settlements.”
Trump has said he has shared his thoughts with Jordan and Egypt, U.S. allies in the region that receive significant aid. But both countries have publicly pushed back against any moves involving the forced displacement of civilians.
Shavit said “it is not reasonable” to expect Jordan and Egypt to accept the proposal because they already host millions of Palestinians displaced by Israel’s creation in 1948 and the Arab-Israeli conflict in 1967.
He argued that it could “be a really big risk to the stability of those countries” if they took in more refugees.
Experts say that moving Gazans and consequently derailing the prospects of an independent Palestinian state could also hinder attempts to normalize relations between Israel and regional power Saudi Arabia.
“I don't see it being positively received elsewhere in the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where [Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman] has made positive progress on a Palestinian state a requirement for normalization with Israel,” Brew said.
Several Arab states have normalized relations with Israel under the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords in recent years.
Need To 'Change The Status Quo'
The staunch opposition to Trump’s plan among Washington’s allies and Arab states is testament to its unfeasibility, experts say.
“I think we need to be cautious reading too much into Trump's comments, which were delivered in an off-the-cuff way,” Brew argued.
Trump likes to “think big” and he and his advisers could be trying to “change the status quo” by getting stakeholders in the region to step up and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Shavit said.
“He wants to shake the parties in a way that they will think on a solution that they can live with,” he said.
Trump has long criticized long-term U.S. military engagements and has advocated for reducing American financial commitments abroad. He described himself as a “peacemaker” during his inauguration speech on January 20.
“Trump wants a new Middle East; he wants the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords and wants to be seen as someone who made peace and received a Nobel Prize [for it],” Shavit said.
Diminished Hamas Remains Dominant In Gaza Despite Israel War
Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip degraded the fighting capabilities of Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group.
But the militant group remains the dominant power in the Palestinian enclave, despite suffering heavy losses during 15 months of Israeli bombardment.
“Hamas is gradually taking back control even if it is very much diminished,” said Nimrod Goren, head of the Jerusalem-based Mitvim Institute.
Israel had pledged to continue its war in Gaza until it eliminated Hamas. But the sides agreed a cease-fire and hostage-exchange deal on January 15.
Hamas carried out an attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry, destroyed much of its infrastructure, and displaced most of its 2.3 million residents.
Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, lost most of its political and military leadership during the war. Its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in a suspected Israeli attack in Iran in July. His successor, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in October.
Israel claims that it killed up to 20,000 Hamas fighters during the war, a figure contested by the militant group, which has not said how many of its members were killed.
No Alternatives
Despite its losses, Hamas has retained its tight grip on power in Gaza.
“Hamas doesn't have to be as strong as before because it is still stronger than any other alternative,” said Jerome Drevon, senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Even so, the group appears to be replenishing its ranks.
Senior U.S. officials have said that Hamas has recruited as many new fighters as it lost during the war, although they are not considered to be as experienced.
Drevon said Israel’s strategy to solve the Hamas issue militarily has failed. The alternative, he said, is a political settlement with the Palestinians.
But that is opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right members of his ruling coalition.
“For them, there is no political compromise,” said Drevon about the Israeli far-right. “It's only about reaching their full victory."
On January 19, Israel’s far-right national-security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned from Netanyahu’s cabinet to protest the Gaza truce deal. He said the agreement would “destroy all of Israel’s achievements.”
Iran's Ally
Drevon said that, despite surviving the war with Israel, “replenishing its arsenal will be more difficult” for Hamas, which has received some financial and military support from Iran.
Israel has imposed a land, sea, and air blockade on Gaza since 2007. It controls Gaza’s 12-kilometer-long land border with Egypt. Israel had repeatedly accused Hamas of smuggling weapons through underground tunnels from Egypt.
He said that Iran is likely to continue supporting Hamas, but bankrolling the group will no longer be a main concern.
“Iran's priority is Iran,” Drevon said. “For them, what matters is to find a new agreement with Western countries and the U.S.”
Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in years after suffering a series of major blows.
During a punishing 2024, Tehran saw its regional influence diminished and its military deterrence against archfoes Israel and the United States weakened.
The Islamic republic has tough decisions to make after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House. The nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, which Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from in 2018 during his first term, also expires later this year.
Even if Iranian assistance shrinks, Hamas is still likely to be a major player in the Palestinian territories, given how entrenched it is in Gaza and the support it maintains in the occupied West Bank.
“It's not going to be destroyed,” said Drevon.
Iran Is Weaker, More Vulnerable Than Ever After String Of Blows
Iran worked for decades to build its network of proxies and allied states to counter the U.S. and Israel. But the past year has seen so-called axis of resistance crumble, diminishing Iran’s regional influence and strength. How was the axis formed and how did Iran get to where it is today?
- By RFE/RL
U.S. Moves To Redesignate Iran-Backed Huthis As Foreign Terrorist Organization
The United States has begun the process to again declare the Iran-backed Huthi rebel group of Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), restoring the designation President Donald Trump set out during his first term.
"Supported by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, which arms and trains terrorist organizations worldwide, the Huthis have fired at U.S. Navy warships dozens of times since 2023, endangering American men and women in uniform," a White House statement said on January 22.
The statement also referred to the Huthis as Ansar Allah, the name used by the extremist group that has since the 1990s battled the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which is supported by a Saudi-led military coalition.
Trump's declaration sets in motion a process that will likely conclude within 45 days to officially designate the Huthis as a foreign terrorist organization under U.S. legislation.
During his first term, Trump had designated the Huthis as an FTO, but the action was reversed by the Biden administration over concerns such a listing could prevent desperately needed aid from reaching Yemen.
President Joe Biden did later label the group as a specially designated global terrorist entity, a slightly lower level of sanctioning.
The latest move, one of Trump's first in his second term in the field of foreign relations, could be an initial step in the "maximum pressure" campaign his team has vowed to renew against Iran, which it blames for supporting extremist activity in the Middle East.
Huthi rebels in 2014 seized much of Yemen's northwest and its capital, Sanaa, leading to a war that has killed tens of thousands of people and created a humanitarian nightmare in the Arab world's poorest country.
Many observers described the hostilities as a "proxy war" between Saudi- and Iranian-led groups.
"Since seizing most Yemeni population centers by force from the legitimate Yemeni government in 2014-2015, the Huthis have launched numerous attacks on civilian infrastructure, including multiple attacks on civilian airports in Saudi Arabia, the deadly January 2022 attacks on the United Arab Emirates, and more than 300 projectiles fired at Israel since October 2023," the White House statement said.
"The Huthis have also attacked commercial vessels transiting Bab al-Mandeb more than 100 times, killing at least four civilian sailors and forcing some Red Sea maritime commercial traffic to reroute, which has contributed to global inflation."
The statement added that the rebel group’s activities "threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade."
The Huthis stepped up attacks on shipping in the Gulf region and fired missiles toward Israel, claiming it was in support of Gaza's Hamas movement, which has also been declared a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.
The actions brought air strikes by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, but the rebels recently have appeared to pull back on their attacks since the cease-fire in Gaza was reached.
- By Ray Furlong
Trump Takes Office, Pledges To Be 'Peacemaker'
Donald Trump has been sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, pledging to be a "peacemaker."
"We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into," he said.
The remarks address hopes and fears in the world's biggest conflict zones.
For Ukrainians, enduring a third year of brutal conflict following Russia's full-scale invasion, peace is sorely desired. Likewise, across the Middle East, there will be many people hoping for an end to conflict.
But Trump did not provide any details of how peace will be achieved and maintained.
Ukraine Reaction
Congratulating Trump on social media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote that Trump's "peace through strength policy" was a chance to "strengthen American leadership and achieve a long-term and just peace, which is the top priority."
This is how Zelenskiy would like to frame Trump as peacemaker: enabling Ukraine to enter talks from a position of U.S.-supplied strength.
But in his address, Trump voiced criticism of the previous administration for "unlimited funding to the defense of foreign borders."
There's concern in Ukraine that Trump's arrival could weaken Ukraine by withholding military support and force it into a peace on unfavorable terms.
"Everyone is very tired of [the war], but I don't really expect him to be a magician and turn it all into a fairy tale," a woman in Zaporizhzhya told RFE/RL a few hours before the inauguration.
Putin: Open To Dialogue
Comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin underlined these fears.
Speaking at a meeting of his National Security Council, Putin said he was open to dialogue with the new U.S. administration on ending the Ukraine conflict, based on a “lasting peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people.”
These words will ring hollow in Ukraine, where Putin launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. He still lays claim to huge areas of Ukrainian territory, including parts that his forces have not occupied.
In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greeted Trump's inauguration by voicing hope that "we will complete the defeat of Iran's terror axis."
Trump's comments about being a peacemaker were accompanied by a reference to the war in Gaza.
"I'm pleased to say that as of yesterday, one day before I assumed office, the hostages in the Middle East are coming back home to their families," he said.
This was the first stage of the cease-fire deal that brought a pause to 15-months of conflict between Israel and Hamas, listed as a terrorist organization by Washington.
It's unclear whether the shaky deal will hold. Likewise, it's unclear how the new administration will approach further planned talks. On this, as on Ukraine, Trump did not add any details.
But this was an inaugural address, not a policy statement. The days and weeks that follow may put flesh on the bones. For now, Trump has offered a first glimpse of how he intends to redefine U.S. foreign policy.
Relief And Frustration As Gaza Cease-Fire Goes Into Effect, First Releases Completed
A long-awaited cease-fire in the Gaza Strip came into effect on January 19, followed by the release of three Israeli hostages after an hourslong delay, underscoring the fragility of the deal between Israel and U.S.-designated terrorist group Hamas.
Hours after the release of the three Israeli women from Hamas captivity, Israeli authorities early on January 20 said 90 Palestinian prisoners -- all women or minors -- had been set free in the first of several planned exchanges.
The truce and the hostage release, agreed on January 15 after months of negotiations, is the first step in a multistage process aimed at ending the 15-month conflict in Gaza.
The conflict broke out when Iran-backed Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages to Gaza. Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities.
The deal will see the exchange of dozens of Israeli hostages for some 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and the delivery of urgent humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has grappled with a major humanitarian crisis.
The start of the truce on January 19 was delayed by nearly three hours, with Israel saying it had not received the names of the first three hostages to be released. Hamas blamed the holdup on “technical field reasons.”
During the delay, Israel continued its attacks in Gaza. The Palestinian Civil Defense, an emergency service, said that at least 19 people were killed in several attacks across the territory.
Following confirmation of cease-fire, U.S. President Joe Biden -- speaking a day before he leaves office -- welcomed the agreement that his administration has long sought.
“The road to this deal has been not easy at all, and a long road,” he said in brief remarks at the Royal Missionary Baptist Church in North Charleston, South Carolina.
Biden added that the long-term success of the cease-fire will also depend on the next administration, as Donald Trump takes the presidency at noon on January 20.
Trump wrote on social media: “Hostages starting to come out today! Three wonderful young women will be first."
Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said: "Seeing the hostages' reunion with their families fills our hearts with hope. Let it be the start of a new chapter for Israel and the Palestinian people."
Meanwhile, Israel's far-right Jewish Power party has announced that it is leaving the government in protest against the cease-fire deal. The move leaves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a thin parliamentary majority.
There were celebrations across Gaza and some Palestinians began returning to their homes as the cease-fire took hold.
Zaher al-Kashif, a Palestinian writer and analyst, said there was a “sense of relief and happiness” in the territory. But he said many in Gaza, most of which is in ruins, are facing an uncertain future.
“We are waiting for real help and a real perspective for our future, which is unclear in the shadow of widespread destruction and the spread of poverty and hunger,” said Kashif, who lives in Gaza City.
In the first phase of the deal, a six-week cease-fire will begin, during which Israeli troops will withdraw from parts of Gaza. Hamas will release 33 of some 90 Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Palestinians displaced by the conflict will be allowed to return to their homes in the first phase of the deal, while humanitarian aid will start to flow into the Hamas-run enclave.
Further negotiations on the second and third phase of the agreement will begin on the 16th day of the deal’s implementation, and analysts say this could pose the first real challenge to the cease-fire’s longevity.
The second phase of the agreement involves the release of the remaining hostages and, crucially, the end of the war. The final stage of the deal focuses on the reconstruction of Gaza.
The Israel-Hamas war has profoundly altered the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. Iran and Russia, once dominant forces, have suffered severe setbacks, while Israel has expanded its regional influence.
Menachem Klein, senior lecturer at Bar Ilan University in Tel Aviv, said many Israelis have “mixed feelings” about the cease-fire and hostage deal.
“They are very happy that the hostages are back. On the other hand, they are frustrated because the war did not achieve its goals. Israel did not finish Hamas. Therefore, the expectation is to continue the war sometime in the future and destroy, totally destroy, Hamas,” said Klein, a former government adviser.
- By Ray Furlong and
- Abubakar Siddique
How The Israel-Hamas War Reshaped The Middle East
The 15-month conflict in the Middle East has caused a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.
Iran and Russia have been severely weakened as Israel has pounded Tehran’s proxies in the region, leading also to the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Israel has emerged strengthened, but countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar have also gained influence.
Iran’s decline is perhaps the most striking. Its much-vaunted “axis of resistance” was based primarily on Hamas and Hezbollah, both listed as terrorist organizations by Israel, the United States, and other countries.
Dramatic Changes
The war began after Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In a dramatic escalation of decades of conflict, Hamas raids into Israel killed over 1,200 people, and the militant group seized over 200 hostages.
The Israeli bombing and ground campaign that followed has killed the top figures in the Hamas leadership and an estimated 18,000 Hamas fighters.
But it also reduced Gaza to rubble, killing some 46,000 people in total, according to Gaza health authorities.
"Weakening Hamas’s core leadership and destroying Gaza is going to fuel other types of militancy,” said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.
On January 14, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington estimates that Hamas has recruited as many fighters as it lost during the war.
“That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war,” he told an audience in Washington.
Iran's Debacle
The war was a disaster for Iran. During the past four decades, Tehran has spent billions on building a network of militant proxies across the region in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Yemen.
Today, that lies in tatters.
Since September 2024, Israel has dealt severe blows to Hezbollah in Lebanon by killing its long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his key associates.
The Israeli onslaught strongly diminished Hezbollah, which was previously the most powerful political force in Lebanon. Beirut now has a new president and prime minister. Both are seen as moderate and reformist figures free from Tehran’s influence.
In Syria there was an even more profound impact. Hezbollah was no longer able to help President Bashar al-Assad maintain his grip on power. Nor were Russian forces, distracted and diluted by their much bigger war in Ukraine.
“Israel set in motion a chain of events that ultimately led to the collapse of the Assad regime,” said Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East expert at London’s European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Tehran was forced to withdraw from Syria in the wake of Assad’s collapse.
“In Iran, even among hard-liners and the proponents of the axis of resistance, they accept that they have been defeated,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
He said that it is too early to tell whether this will be a turning point for Tehran’s regional ambitions as it weighs giving up on Islamist militant groups in the Arab states.
“The costs are exceeding the benefits,” Vatanka said. “And if they make that decision, we will face a different reality of the Iranian regional agenda going forward.”
He said Iran’s influence over the Huthi rebels in Yemen is more tenuous.
The United States, Israel, and Britain have attacked power and port infrastructure controlled by the group in northern Yemen after it fired missiles and drones at Israel and attacked maritime traffic in the Red Sea.
“The Huthis have far more independence and an agenda of their own in terms of the Palestinians,” he said. “[They are] not so dependent on what Iran decides to do.”
Moscow's Exit
Assad’s flight to exile in Moscow means that Russia has lost its military foothold in the Middle East.
Russian forces were filmed evacuating, reportedly to eastern Libya. The Kremlin has lost an ally that dates back to the Cold War.
“It has suffered a huge strategic blow,” Lovatt said. “I don't see any imminent openings for Russia to reassert itself in the Middle East.”
However, other nations in the Middle East have gained influence at the expense of Tehran, Moscow, and their allies.
Turkey will now have plenty of opportunities to shape Syria's future.
Ankara-backed Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now leads the interim government in Damascus after toppling Assad's government in a lightning offensive.
Israel now finds itself in a much stronger military position, having dealt powerful blows to many enemies.
Egypt and Qatar have scored diplomatic gains by brokering the elusive truce between Hamas and Israel.
However, Saudi Arabia, the oil-rich Sunni monarchy, has not gained much from the war.
“They put all their money on the Abraham Accords and were close to normalizing with Israel formally before October 7,” said Ayub, the analyst in Washington. “But they had no meaningful sway on regional developments since then.”
The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, key allies of Riyadh, recognized Israel under the Abraham Accords in September 2020.
The prewar hopes for Saudi Arabia to follow suit may be a casualty of the conflict, given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza.
This factor has also turned much public opinion in the region against the United States, which has called on Israel to show restraint while also providing the weapons it needed to wage war.
Both the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations have claimed credit for the peace deal, but it will be for President-elect Donald Trump to deal with the aftermath.
It’s expected he will adopt a policy of maximum pressure toward Iran. His rhetoric has been firmly pro-Israel. The coming days will show if the peace deal holds -- and how Trump’s arrival reshuffles the cards once again.
- By Ray Furlong
Explainer: Looking Back At The Israel-Hamas War
A landmark deal has been agreed between Israel and Hamas, proscribed as a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries. The war has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East.
- By Kian Sharifi
Israel, Hamas Agree Cease-Fire Deal, Although Much 'Uncertainty' Remains
Israel and the U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas have reached a multiphase cease-fire deal that includes the exchange of Israeli hostages for some 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and the delivery of urgent humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
Mediated by Qatar and Egypt, the agreement will go into effect on January 19, according to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. It includes three stages, with the final stage focusing on the reconstruction of Gaza.
The conflict broke out in October 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked settlements in southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages to Gaza.
Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities. The conflict has led to the mass destruction of the territory and the displacement of most of its 2.3 million residents.
What We Know
The details of the agreement have not been formally published, but a clear image has emerged from official comments and media reports based on leaked drafts of the deal.
In the first phase, a six-week cease-fire will begin, during which Israeli troops will gradually withdraw from central Gaza.
During this phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages -- expected to be mostly women, the elderly, and the sick -- in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Some hostages were released in November 2023 in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is still holding 94 hostages, but Israel believes that only 60 are still alive.
Palestinians displaced by the conflict will be allowed to return to their homes in the first phase of the deal, while humanitarian aid will start to flow into the Hamas-run enclave. Nearly the entirety of Gaza residents were forced to flee their homes, fueling a major humanitarian crisis.
Further negotiations on the second and third phase of the agreement will begin on the 16th day of the deal’s implementation, and analysts say this could pose the first real challenge to the cease-fire’s longevity.
The second phase of the agreement involves the release of the remaining hostages and, crucially, the end of the war.
“There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether Israel is committed to a permanent end of the conflict,” said Michael Horowitz, the head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.
What It Means
The Iran-backed Hamas has suffered greatly in the course of the war, losing its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and his successor, Yahya Sinwar, within months of each other.
Horowitz said Hamas will claim victory simply because it survived the war.
“The question is whether it can truly return to power in Gaza, retain its military capabilities, and even capitalize on this perceived victory to consolidate its presence outside of Gaza, namely in the West Bank,” he added.
Iran, whose so-called axis of resistance has suffered multiple setbacks since the outbreak of the Gaza war, sees the cease-fire as good news.
Israel fought a devastating war with the U.S.-designated Lebanese political party and armed group Hezbollah late last year, decimating its senior leadership and degrading its military capabilities. Hezbollah came out of the war a shell of its former self, and its weakening led to the election of a president and prime minister in Lebanon who are favored by Western powers and Iran’s regional rivals.
Adding insult to injury, Syrian rebel forces opposed to the government of Iran’s longtime ally Bashar al-Assad launched a lightning offensive on the very day that Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a cease-fire. The Iran- and Russia-backed government of Assad fell in under two weeks, dealing a major blow to both Tehran and Moscow’s regional ambitions.
Horowitz said the Gaza cease-fire allows Iran to fully de-escalate and engage the Donald Trump administration once he takes office later this month.
Iran may also sit back and recalibrate its strategy, such as deciding whether to re-arm Hamas, which Horowitz said may not pose the same threat to Israel as it once did for a long time.
“I think the West Bank may be more interesting for Iran, as this is where the future of the Palestinian divide between Hamas and Israel will play out,” he added.
Many in Israel will welcome the end of the war and the return of hostages, but the cease-fire deal could turn into a headache for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has claimed several times that the war will continue until “total victory” over Hamas.
Given the staunch opposition to the deal among far-right members of his cabinet -- some of whom have threatened to quit -- Netanyahu’s top priority will be to ensure his government does not collapse, according to Horowitz.
China In Eurasia Briefing: A Baltic Warning About A New Era For Beijing In Europe
Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.
A Warning From The Baltics
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis offered a clear warning for those who say that China is able to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Finding Perspective: Speaking to the French international affairs outlet Geopolitique.eu, Landsbergis stamped down the idea.
“China is waiting for a moment of weakness to step in and offer ‘solutions’ and I fear that some in Europe would accept this offer because it’s a cheap alternative to us stepping up, in the same way that you buy a Chinese car because it’s cheaper. The same goes for their peace proposals.”
Landsbergis was commenting on a recent interview with outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and The New York Times, where Blinken said that one of the reasons that Moscow had not escalated into a nuclear war in Ukraine was because of China.
“If you follow that line of reasoning, it means that China has become a protector of Europe. That would be the beginning of a new paradigm,” Landsbergis said.
“If we accept that China, which in my view supports Russia and is therefore an adversary of the countries supporting Ukraine, is now the guarantor of nuclear deterrence on our continent, it would be a dangerous mistake and a failure.”
Why It Matters: Landsbergis’s warning comes as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office and Europe anxiously looks at a very different geopolitical reality.
Trump’s tariff threats and less traditional approach to Washington’s relationship with Europe is a source of consternation in European capitals and there is talk in some corners about having a more amenable position toward Beijing to balance the Trump administration.
On January 14, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke with European Council President Antonio Costa to begin what many analysts believe will be a charm offensive from Beijing toward the continent.
But while Trump may have a rockier relationship with Brussels and various capitals than his predecessor, Beijing is also facing a different playing field than when U.S. President Joe Biden took office.
China’s support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine has strained ties with Europe, and Brussels is taking aim at Chinese companies in some sectors, a trend that looks set to continue.
EU High Representative Kaja Kallas has also voiced strong criticism of China, especially for its stance around the war in Ukraine and its long-term repercussions.
Landsbergis shared similar sentiments, saying that “Ukraine is central to what will happen in the future” between China and Taiwan.
“I mentioned earlier that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has managed to change the nuclear doctrine by getting us to accept, at least for now, that resisting an attack is a form of escalation and therefore a nuclear strike is justified.”
“One can imagine a situation where China imposes a blockade, even a partial one, on Taiwan and they resist and we try to lift it, then China could use the Russian playbook,” he said. “I don’t think we collectively understand how reckless it is.”
Three more stories from Eurasia
1. The Taliban Courts Chinese Capital
My Afghan colleagues at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi and I reported about a new road built by the Taliban in northeast Afghanistan that the hardline group is hoping can better connect the country to neighboring China.
The Details: The first section of the road in the Wakhan Corridor was completed a year ago in early 2024, and the Taliban is looking to build out the connections further to one day open up more trade with China.
The road link is part of a series of announcements and groundbreaking ceremonies in 2024 -- from oil deals to mining rights -- that the Taliban are hoping will keep moving ahead in the coming year.
But the main questions remain over whether the militants can finally calm China's long-standing security concerns.
Haiyun Ma, an associate professor at Frostburg University, told me that, despite the lofty deals, Chinese investment is still not flowing in Afghanistan and that there are growing frustrations under the surface between Beijing and the Taliban.
Ma says that the announcement in 2024 helps bring prestige and legitimacy to the Taliban as it adapts to governing and that it offers a low-risk, low-commitment way for Beijing to signal long-term intent toward the country.
But he adds that China is in no hurry to have a footprint in Afghanistan.
China is yet to set up a border crossing in the area where the Wakhan road leads and despite all the resource deals, Beijing has plenty of already developed alternatives elsewhere in the world to help meet its domestic needs.
2. Trump, Greenland, China, And The Arctic
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has once again kicked up a storm by refusing to rule out the use of force to gain control of Greenland.
As my colleague Todd Prince writes, Trump’s pursuit shines a light on the complicated national-security picture in the Arctic between the United States, China, Russia, and other players.
What You Need To Know: While China is not an Arctic nation, it is seeking to be a major player in the region. In recent years, Beijing has sought to buy ports, other infrastructure, and mining rights on Greenland though it has not been successful.
Todd writes that the United States suspected China's real interest in those projects was to place dual-use sensors and radars in the Arctic Circle to help control their military satellites and gather intelligence on U.S. space-based operations in the region.
3. U.S. Energy Sanctions Hurt Chinese, Indian Purchases Of Russian Oil
Chinese and Indian refiners are looking for new fuel supplies as they adapt to hard-hitting new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers.
What It Means: Many of the newly sanctioned tankers brought oil to China and India, and both Bloomberg and Reuters reported that the sanctions have led to a jump in prices and driven Chinese refiners back to sellers of oil that is not restricted.
The sanctions were announced on January 10 and they target Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, two of Russia's five largest largest oil producers, as well as 183 vessels transporting Russian oil and oil products to foreign markets.
The Biden administration also sanctioned “opaque” traders of Russian oil, more than 30 Russia-based oil-field service providers, and more than a dozen leading Russian energy officials and executives.
The Chinese refiner Yulong Petrochemical has previously bought Russian crude, but, according to industry data, it purchased 4 million barrels of crude from the United Arab Emirates following the sanctions.
After the sanctions announcement, Unipec, a subsidiary of China’s state-owned energy giant Sinopec, booked four large carriers of crude from the Middle East which the data intelligence firm Kpler said could carry a total of up to 2 million barrels.
Across The Supercontinent
Kyiv’s China Consultations: Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry told RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service that 2024 was a year of “developing” political dialogue in Beijing, pointing to the extensive high-level talks with their counterparts in the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi added that Kyiv considers China one of the countries that can and does have influence on the Russian Federation. And we will continue to maintain this contact with the Chinese side.”
Parting Shots: In a speech at the State Department on January 13 summing up his administration’s record, Biden said the United States has widened its lead over competitors like Russia and China.
"Our adversaries are weaker than they were when we came into this job four years ago. Let's consider Russia. Putin invaded Ukraine. He thought he'd conquer Kyiv in a matter of days. But the truth is, since that war began, I'm the only one that stood in the center of Kyiv, not him," Biden said, referring to his visit to the embattled nation last year.
The China Connection: As Russian forces have intensified their advances in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, they're being helped by a new tool on the battlefield: drones that fly with the use of fiber-optic cables, RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service and I reported.
Some Ukrainian experts have said that the drone models used by Russia are very similar to China’s commercially available Skywalker drone. There are also growing reports in Ukrainian media of high-quantity orders being placed at Chinese factories by Russian companies for large spools of fiber-optic cables.
One Thing To Watch
Trade between China and Russia reached a record high in 2024, according to official data released on January 13 by China’s General Administration of Customs.
The figures show how Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to strengthen their relationship are paying off in the face of tough Western economic sanctions on Russia.
While the 2024 trade data reached an all-time high, the year-on-year growth rate slowed significantly compared to the 26.3 percent surge seen in 2023.
That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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- By Kian Sharifi and
- Iliya Jazaeri
Lebanon Names ICJ Chief As Prime Minister In Latest Blow To Iran
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's designation of Nawaf Salam, the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as the country's new prime minister appears to deal another blow to Iran's declining regional influence.
Lawmakers on January 13 nominated Salam for the post, favoring him over the incumbent, Najib Mikati, who was said to be the preferred candidate of Hezbollah, the political party and armed group backed by Iran and designated as terrorists by the United States.
Aoun himself was elected president by lawmakers on January 9, filling a role that had been vacant for over two years, not least because lawmakers from Hezbollah and its Shi'ite ally Amal Movement would refuse to attend sessions to prevent the parliament from reaching quorum.
The U.S.- and Saudi-backed former army chief was elected president in the second round of voting after Hezbollah lawmakers opted to vote for him, having withheld their ballots in the first round in an apparent attempt to show that the group still held some power.
However, Salam's designation as prime minister further reflects the weakening of Hezbollah -- and by extension the waning of Iran's influence.
"It means that Iran's dominance in the region has come to an end," Makram Rabah, a history lecturer at American University of Beirut, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Mohammad Raad, leader of the Hezbollah bloc in parliament, claimed on January 13 that opponents of the group were working to exclude it from power and sought to divide the country.
The Lebanese lawmaker said the group had "extended its hand" by helping Aoun become president but found the "hand was cut off" after meeting him following the parliament's nomination of Salam.
Raad warned any government that "opposes coexistence has no legitimacy whatsoever."
Rabah said Salam's designation as prime minister "does not pose a challenge for anyone," but if Iran and Hezbollah believe that his becoming Lebanon's premier is "an attempt to end them," that means the Islamic republic and its Lebanese ally "harbor ideas and policies that contravene the principles of governance and progress."
Once a powerful force in Lebanon, Hezbollah's recent war with Israel has left it politically and socially weak and militarily degraded.
Under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing political system, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shi'ite Muslim.
Salam, who comes from a historically political family, served as Lebanon's ambassador to the United Nations in 2007-17 before elected to serve on the ICJ, with his term beginning in 2018. In 2024, he became the first Lebanese judge to be elected as the head of The Hague-based court.
- By Kian Sharifi
Election Of New Lebanese President Signals Iran's Waning Influence
Lebanese lawmakers have elected army chief Joseph Aoun as the country’s new president, ending a two-year gridlock in a clear sign of the weakening of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political party and military force that had scuttled past efforts to name a president.
Lawmakers from Hezbollah, which is a U.S.-designated terrorist group, and its ally Amal had for two years obstructed attempts to elect a president by walking out of the parliament, preventing it from reaching a quorum.
This time, however, they voted for Aoun in the second round on January 9 after their preferred candidate dropped out.
In the end, Aoun secured a commanding second-round victory, winning 99 out of 128 votes after falling short of the two-thirds majority required for victory in the first round.
Hezbollah’s devastating war with Israel late last year caused significant damage in Lebanon, particularly in the capital, Beirut, and weakened the Shi’ite group militarily, socially, and, it seems, politically.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the election of the U.S-backed Aoun indicates that Hezbollah has “come to terms with the new political realities” in Lebanon.
He said that, by backing Aoun’s election, Hezbollah sought to avoid being blamed for prolonging Lebanon’s political gridlock while also ensuring that more staunchly anti-Hezbollah figures such as Samir Geagea did not become president.
“[Hezbollah’s] focus remains on survival while working toward a more stable situation in the country, which they hope to use over time to regain strength and rehabilitate their position,” Azizi added.
Aoun’s election was backed by the United States, France, and Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia, indicating that Riyadh’s influence in Lebanon will likely grow at Tehran’s expense.
“It is quite evident that, as Hezbollah’s role diminishes in Lebanon’s political and military affairs, Iranian influence is also waning,” Azizi argued.
Losing influence in Lebanon caps off a catastrophic few months for Iran, which has witnessed the battering of its sprawling network of regional proxies and the fall of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Still, Tehran appears supportive of Hezbollah’s strategy of maintaining a lower profile and focusing on rebuilding its strength, according to Azizi.
Even Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian has welcomed Aoun's election, saying it was a "reinforcement of stability and unity" in the country.
Iranian state-affiliated media, meanwhile, have avoided criticizing Aoun, with one news agency even describing him as an “impartial” and “relatively popular” figure.
In his victory speech, Aoun vowed that only the Lebanese state would have a "monopoly" on weapons in a comment seen as a pledge to disarm Hezbollah, which has long been considered a more powerful force than the Lebanese military.
Azizi said disarming Hezbollah is a longer-term goal which is “easier said than done” and that for “clear-eyed” Aoun, the immediate priority is establishing stability in Lebanon.
Of more immediate concern, analysts say, is the implementation of an Israeli-Hezbollah cease-fire while also seeking funding to rebuild Lebanon, especially in areas in the south and east that were hit hard by the fighting.
"Aoun has interlocking objectives. He has to address Hezbollah's weapons through some sort of dialogue forum. Yet he can only do so if he secures funding to rebuild mainly Shi'a areas. And for this he must engage in economic reform, because the Gulf states now demand it," said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
After Degrading Hamas And Hezbollah, Israel Intensifies Attacks On Yemen's Huthis
Israel has degraded the fighting capabilities of its chief adversaries over the past year, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
But Yemen's Huthi rebels, who continue to fire missiles and drones at Israel, have proven a resilient foe despite Israeli attacks.
"Deterring the Huthis presents significant challenges," said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Israel lacks sufficient intelligence about the group and its operational capabilities."
Israel's success hinges on its ability to locate and destroy the Iranian-backed group's weapons facilities, a task that has "proven difficult so far," Nagi said.
Another challenge is geography. Yemen is located some 2,000 kilometers from Israel. The Huthis also control large swaths of the country, including their stronghold in the mountainous northwest and the Red Sea coastline.
Even so, Israel has intensified its air strikes in recent weeks against the Huthis, despite the armed group posing a limited direct military threat to Israel. The escalating Israeli attacks have threatened to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
Escalating Attacks
On December 26, Israel said it conducted air strikes on the main airport in Sanaa as well as power stations and "military infrastructure" at several Yemeni ports.
The head of the World Health Organization narrowly escaped death in the Israeli strikes on the airport that killed at least six people.
Israel's allies, including the United States and Britain, have also carried out strikes in Yemen.
The U.S. military said that it carried out air strikes against Huthi targets in Sanaa and along the Yemeni coast on December 30 and 31, including a "command and control facility and advanced conventional weapon production and storage facilities."
The Huthis have fired on U.S. naval forces and attacked international shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting a key global trade route.
The Israeli strikes came amid almost daily missile and drone attacks by the Huthis on Israel. Most of the attacks have been intercepted by Israel's air defenses and have caused little material damage. But they have triggered constant air raid sirens in many parts of Israel and disrupted everyday life.
The Huthis launched their attacks on Israel and international shipping in late 2023. It came soon after Israel began its devastating war in the Gaza Strip. The rebels have vowed to continue their attacks until a cease-fire is reached in the Palestinian enclave.
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Israel is largely operating against the Huthis in the dark. Israeli attacks, he said, have mainly targeted "civilian and strategic infrastructure rather than the military assets."
Civilians have borne the brunt of the violence in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population of some 35 million people need humanitarian assistance.
"We, the people, are paying for it, not the Huthis," said Mustapha Noman, a former Yemeni deputy foreign minister. "This helps them."
Iran's Trusted Allies
The Huthis are part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel.
Israel has severely weakened the axis over the past year. Israel's ground invasion and devastating air campaign in Lebanon decimated the military capabilities of Hezbollah, an armed group and political party in Lebanon.
Israel's ongoing war in the Gaza Strip has devastated the Palestinian territory and diminished the fighting power of Hamas.
Meanwhile, in early December, longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another member of the axis and a key ally of Iran, was ousted from power by Islamist rebels.
That has heightened the importance of the Huthis for Iran. The rebels are armed with highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.
"Without the Huthis, Israel would likely shift its full focus towards targeting and weakening Iran directly," said Nagi.
- By RFE/RL
Carter's Troubled Presidency Turned Into Decades Of Service (Video)
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter has died at age 100. His turbulent single term as U.S. president was marred by the 444-day Iran hostage crisis but was followed by decades of global philanthropy, diplomacy, and the Nobel Peace Prize.
- By RFE/RL
Jimmy Carter, Nobel Laureate Whose Presidency Was Marred By Iran Hostage Crisis, Dies Aged 100
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was marred by the 444-day Iran hostage crisis, has died at age 100 after receiving hospice care for almost two years.
"Jimmy Carter, 39th president of the United States and winner of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, died peacefully Sunday, December 29, at his home in Plains, Georgia, surrounded by his family," the Carter Center in his home state of Georgia said in a statement.
U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement that "America and the world lost an extraordinary leader, statesman, and humanitarian."
Biden declared January 9, the day Carter's funeral will be held in Washington, D.C., as a national day of mourning.
Though his presidency was marked by his failure to rein in rampant inflation, revive the economy, and his inability to free dozens of Americans held captive at an embassy in the Iranian capital, Tehran, his life after office was celebrated for his humanitarian work around the world.
"God gives us the capacity for choice. We can choose to alleviate suffering. We can choose to work together for peace. We can make these changes -- and we must," Carter said in his speech upon accepting the Nobel Peace Prize. He was the first former U.S. president to win the award.
Former President Barack Obama praised Carter's "decency," saying in a tribute the onetime peanut farmer who was raised in poverty "taught all of us what it means to live a life of grace, dignity, justice, and service."
President-elect Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that "the challenges Jimmy faced as president came at a pivotal time for our country and he did everything in his power to improve the lives of all Americans."
The iconic Empire State Building in New York City was lit up in red, white, and blue to honor Carter.
Carter, a one-term leader, is remembered for having brokered a peace deal between Israel and Egypt and later received the Nobel Peace Prize for his humanitarian work and efforts to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts.
But it was the Iranian hostage crisis that would come to define Carter's presidency from 1977 to 1981.
The Islamic Revolution in 1979 toppled the U.S.-backed shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and brought to power a group of clerics led by exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Carter granted the ailing shah political asylum, to the anger of many Iranians.
In late 1979, a group of hard-line Iranian students who were believed to have had the tacit support of Khomeini stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took 52 Americans hostage. They demanded the return of the shah and an apology for past actions by the United States in Iran.
444 Days: Looking Back At The U.S.-Iran Hostage Crisis
Carter said the United States could not give in to the hostage-takers, and the crisis dragged on for over a year.
"It's vital to the United States and to every other nation that the lives of diplomatic personnel and other citizens abroad be protected, and that we refuse to permit the use of terrorism, and the seizure and the holding of hostages, to impose political demands,” he said.
“No one should underestimate the resolve of the American government and the American people in this matter."
With negotiations with the Iranians proving fruitless, Carter ordered U.S. Special Forces to try to rescue the American hostages in April 1980. The mission ended in disaster, and eight U.S. soldiers died in an accident caused by equipment failure.
Carter announced the failed rescue mission to the nation: "I share the disappointment of the American people that this rescue mission was not successful. And I also share the grief of our nation because we had Americans who were casualties in this effort to seek freedom for their fellow citizens who have been held hostage for so long.
"But I also share a deep pride in the commitment and courage and the integrity and the competence and determination of those who went on this mission."
The Iranian hostage crisis -- and Carter's inability to resolve it -- dominated the news in the United States throughout 1980, a presidential election year.
He was easily defeated in his reelection bid by Ronald Reagan, a former Hollywood actor who had energized the Republican party with his smooth appearance and supply-side economic policies.
In a final insult to Carter, Iran decided to release the hostages on January 20, 1981, the day Carter left office and Reagan was inaugurated as president.
One of Carter's first goals after becoming president was to work on a second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, known as SALT II, with the Soviet Union. The treaty was designed to further limit the number of nuclear weapons held by both countries.
Negotiating the treaty with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev was difficult because of Carter's persistent criticism of Moscow's human rights record. But in June 1979 the two leaders signed SALT II. The U.S. Senate did not ratify the treaty following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979, but its terms were honored by both sides.
In response to the Soviet invasion, the president announced what came to be known as the Carter Doctrine -- that the United States would defend its interests in the Persian Gulf with military force if necessary. The United States also boycotted the 1980 Olympic Games in Moscow.
"I have given notice that the United States will not attend the Moscow Olympics unless the Soviet invasion forces are withdrawn from Afghanistan before February 20,” said Carter at the time. “That deadline is tomorrow, and it will not be changed."
Though his term in office is often characterized as a failure, Carter's presidency had its share of triumphs.
He established an effective national energy policy and encouraged the creation of 8 million new jobs, although at the cost of high inflation. He also improved the operation of the U.S. federal government through reform of the civil service.
Carter's greatest achievement as U.S. president was the 1978 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, brokered at the Camp David presidential retreat. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.
Carter's wife, Rosalynn, died in November 2023, at age 96.
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