U.S. President Donald Trump's vow to swiftly end Russia's war against Ukraine took a new twist when his envoy said the administration would like to see Kyiv hold elections, potentially this year and particularly if a truce is agreed.
The remarks by Keith Kellogg brought a simmering, sensitive issue in Ukrainian politics to the fore as U.S. efforts to start peace talks mount and as the Kremlin seeks to discredit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by claiming he is illegitimate.
In an interview with Reuters on February 1, Kellogg said elections in Ukraine "need to be done" and could be held following a cease-fire deal, something he has said could be achieved within months.
"Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so," Kellogg told Reuters. "I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running."
Trump, who had said during last year's presidential campaign that he would end the war even before his inauguration if elected, has said little about how he hopes to get it done. But he has suggested he would use a carrot-and-stick approach with both Kyiv and Moscow to get them to the table.
Mikhail Alexeev, a political scientist at San Diego State University who focuses on Russia and Ukraine, said the Trump administration has likely raised the issue of elections in the hope it might ease the negotiating process. But he said it could play into Russia’s hands, calling it a "dangerous red herring and political ploy on the Kremlin's part."
Putin has said repeatedly that Moscow is open to talks, but many experts suspect he would not act in good faith and would use any negotiations to display the image of a cooperative player while buying time to further improve Russia's position on the ground in Ukraine, where it has been making gains -- albeit at a huge cost in human lives -- for many months.
"If Putin can drag the U.S. administration's feet for a few more months, then he can press more gains on the battlefield," Alexeev said.
Putin has said repeatedly that Zelenskyy would not have the authority to sign a peace deal, claiming he is illegitimate because his five-term term was scheduled to end in May 2024 after a presidential election in March.
But Ukraine’s constitution bars it from holding elections under martial law, which was imposed by Zelenskyy when Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and -- like the invasion -- continues to this day after repeated extensions.
Nonetheless, Ukrainians have been debating the merits of holding a presidential election since 2023, when the conversation was colored by Western pressure and Russian propaganda.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican-South Carolina), an ally of Trump, traveled to Kyiv in May of that year and urged Zelenskyy to go ahead with elections on schedule as Republican opposition to further aid grew in Congress ahead of a months long blockage that hurt Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, where its forces rely heavily on U.S. weapons.
At the time, many Ukrainians, including opposition leaders and civil society groups, spoke out against holding elections during wartime, warning it would divide society at a critical time in Ukraine's history. They also said it would put people’s lives in danger, noting Russia’s consistent shelling of civilian locations.
There are plenty of other issues facing Ukraine should it try to hold elections during wartime, or even shortly after a cease-fire. More than 6 million have fled abroad, nearly 4 million are internally displaced, and some 1 million are serving in the armed forces, complicating their ability to cast a vote. Together they represent about a quarter of the population.
“Elections and a full-scale war are incompatible. This idea is extremely dangerous and will lead to the loss of legitimacy of both the process and the elected bodies, and with a high probability -- to a significant destabilization of the state as a whole. If competitive political struggle is impossible in war conditions, then elections are definitely not free,” a statement signed by 100 civil society groups said in September 2023.
“There is widespread acceptance of the situation, so to claim that Zelenskiy is not a legitimate authority is absolutely nonsense and absurd,” Alexeev said.
In an interview on national TV on January 2, Zelenskyy said elections were possible in 2025 but only after a cease-fire.
And following Kellogg’s comments, an aide to Zelenskyy told Reuters that “if his plan is just a cease-fire and elections, it is a failed plan -- Putin won't be intimidated by just those two things."
Zelenskyy and his government say that powerful security guarantees for Ukraine would be a crucial condition for any cease-fire or peace deal.
During a visit to Paris last week, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who lost to Zelenskyy in the 2019 election and is possible challenger in a future contest, rejected the idea of holding elections amid war, saying the only “winner” of such a vote would be Putin.
Poroshenko said Putin would use propaganda and a “fifth column” to undermine Ukraine during an election campaign.
Sergei Zhuk, a fellow at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington and a professor at Ball State University in Indiana, shared Poroshenko’s concerns. In an interview with RFE/RL, Zhuk said the Kremlin could use its powerful propaganda machine and pro-Russia elements inside Ukraine to destabilize the country during elections.
“I am afraid in future elections, with all the Russian misinformation, which is very effective, they will organize an anti-Zelenskyy campaign, and they will win. It will be the second rendition of the Georgia counterrevolution,” he said, referring to the rise of an authoritarian, pro-Russian government in Tbilisi following years of hostile relations with the Kremlin.
Putin’s animosity toward Zelenskyy is personal, according to Zhuk. He said it only deepened when the former comic spearheaded his country’s defense against the larger, better-equipped Russian military, winning much of the world’s respect and embarrassing the Kremlin leader, who expected the invasion would drive Zelenskyy from power and subjugate Ukraine within weeks.
Zelenskyy’s popularity skyrocketed in Ukraine as his armed forces regained swaths of territory from Russia in the autumn of 2022. But with the full-scale war entering its fourth year later this month and Russia on the advance in the east, Zelenskyy’s popularity is waning.
Zhuk and Alexeev see General Valeriy Zaluzhniy, who oversaw Ukraine’s defense during the first two years of the invasion, as the most credible challenger to Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian president fired the popular general in February 2024 following a dispute over strategy, and local media reported that Zelenskyy was concerned about his possible political ambitions.
Alexeev said Zaluzhniy’s ascendency to the presidency would not be a win for Putin.
“It is not going to reduce Ukraine’s will to resist,” he said.
