Ukraine has received over $287 billion in aid since January 2022, when the United States and European allies scrambled to fly in equipment to help stave off an invasion by Russia’s army, which stood ready to strike along Ukraine’s borders.
According to the German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy, just about half -- $69 billion worth -- of the $139 billion worth of military aid has come from the United States, by far the largest provider. That aid has now been frozen following last week’s clash between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump at the White House.
It’s not the first time American military aid to the embattled country has been halted. Deliveries of US equipment dried up in early 2024 as Congress grappled over a spending package that was eventually passed last April.
That pause in deliveries corresponded to one of Russia’s last significant battlefield victories -- the capture of Avdiyivka in February 2024. Taking the heavily fortified Donetsk suburb, a frontline town since 2014, opened the door for Russia to push about 50 kilometers further west over the past year, reaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk, an important logistics hub and possibly one of the last major obstacles on the road to the Dnieper river.
What Does The Freeze Mean For The Front?
US officials have said that the aid freeze would last until Zelenskyy commits to seeking peace talks. Soldiers on Ukraine’s frontlines are unlikely to feel the effects immediately. Yuri Fedorov, an independent Russian military analyst, told RFE/RL that most experts agree that Ukraine would be able to maintain the current intensity of operations for about six months.
European NATO members provided most of the other half of the aid that Ukraine has received and will likely try to step in to make up for the US shortfall -- to the extent that they can. Less than a day after the pause was announced, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a plan to increase defense spending by as much as 800 billion euros ($843 billion), including up to 150 billion euros in loans that EU countries could use to “massively step up their support to Ukraine” in the form of immediate supplies of military equipment.
Some types of equipment, such as tanks, have been provided in larger numbers by Europe than the US, with countries like Poland giving Ukraine their Cold War-era stocks and replacing them with modern machinery from the US or other countries.
Ukraine is also able to meet some of its needs domestically -- explosive-laden drones, which Ukrainian commanders told The New York Times now inflict up to 80 percent of casualties, are largely produced inside the country.
Still, in other areas, like precision-guided munitions for HIMARS artillery systems, Ukraine is heavily reliant on shipments from the US, and the frontline is almost sure to move westwards if the war grinds on with Europe bearing responsibility for supplying arms.
How Expensive Is Aid To Ukraine?
According to figures compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the cost of US military aid to Ukraine is comparable to the average yearly cost to the US of the war in Afghanistan -- 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent of GDP, respectively. This doesn't include the other approximately $50 billion the US has spent in financial and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
If the EU rearmament program announced by von der Layen reaches 800 billion euros, it will be almost as expensive as the pandemic recovery fund -- and cost six times as much as the EU has spent on aid to Ukraine so far.
The Trump administration previously sought to recoup the money spent on aid through an agreement that would give the US access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, which Zelenskyy was scheduled to sign at the White House on February 28 before the meeting fell through. While Ukrainian officials say they are still prepared to sign the deal, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CBS News that it is not currently on the table, and it is “impossible to have an economic deal without a peace deal.”
What exactly a potential peace deal would look like remains unclear. European leaders pledged last weekend to develop one and present it to the US, while Putin’s official spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said recently that regions of Ukraine that Russia has annexed are “integral parts” of the country and not up for discussion.
