China In Eurasia

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva kicked off a state visit to China in the country's financial hub of Shanghai as he seeks to position himself as a peace broker in the ongoing war in Ukraine while attempting to elevate Brazil's global status and boost economic ties with Beijing.

The left-wing Brazilian president arrived late on April 11 and will also meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on April 14 before departing China a day later.

In Shanghai, Lula attended the official swearing-in of close adviser and former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff as head of the Chinese-backed New Development Bank. The Brazilian government said that they are expected to sign at least 20 bilateral agreements with the Chinese side during the trip, with Brazilian and Chinese officials saying the flurry of deals reflects the improved relations between the two countries, which experienced a turbulent period under Lula's far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

But a key piece of Lula's outreach is courting political backing for his proposal that Brazil and other developing countries, including China, form a "peace club" to broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine, a conflict that has been rumbling on since 2014 before intensifying in February 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion.

Beijing has also sought to play a role in ending the conflict. Both Lula and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira have said that peace talks will be a centerpiece of discussions with Xi, with Vieira saying earlier this week that "by the time Lula returns home, a group of mediator countries will have been created."

Analysts, however, remain skeptical about the chances of Lula's peace proposal, which is unlikely to gain support from Kyiv and its backers given China's close ties with Russia and past comments from the Brazilian leader that Ukraine should cede Crimea -- which was forcibly annexed by Moscow in 2014 -- as a means to reach a deal.

"Lula sees a critical juncture here and an opportunity to assert himself and revive Brazilian foreign policy in the process," Carlos Solar, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense and security think tank, told RFE/RL. "But for the 'peace club' idea to work, you need to be seen as a peace broker by both sides and Kyiv doesn't seem to view Brazil as impartial."

Peace Diplomacy

Lula's China trip -- which was originally scheduled for March but delayed after the 77-year-old caught pneumonia -- comes on the heels of an extensive round of diplomacy from both leaders.

Xi made a high-profile visit to Moscow in late March where he strengthened political ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and touted Beijing's own blueprint for peace that it unveiled in February. The Chinese plan has been criticized in much of the West as vague and slanted in Russia's favor.

The Chinese leader has also hosted a slew of visiting dignitaries recently, including an April 5 visit from French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, where the war in Ukraine and Beijing's support for Moscow featured prominently in discussions.

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A Chinese Proposal To End The War In Ukraine? Not Quite

Brazil, meanwhile, has sought to engage both Russia and Ukraine. "I am convinced that both Ukraine and Russia are waiting for someone else to say, 'Let's sit down and talk,'" Lula told journalists in Brasilia, the country's capital, prior to his China trip.

Lula's foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim flew to Moscow in March to push for peace talks, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Brasilia on April 17. A week before his departure to China, Lula also dispatched a special envoy to Kyiv to present his peace idea. The Brazilian leader has suggested that one solution to the conflict could be the return of newly invaded territory, though not Crimea -- an option that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has rejected outright.

Lula has not been overtly pro-Russian. He has condemned Moscow and recently Brazil voted in support of United Nations resolutions rejecting Russia's invasion and demanding that its troops leave Ukrainian territory. However, the Brazilian president has also seemed to place some of the blame for the war on NATO and Ukraine, refused to participate in economic sanctions against Russia, and criticized countries for sending arms to Ukraine instead of seeking peace.

The Royal United Services Institute's Solar says that Lula has made foreign policy a priority early in his tenure, advocating for regional integration in South America and international cooperation on issues like combating climate change while repositioning Brazil as a nonaligned global power and leader within the Global South.

China and Brazil are members of the BRICS group of developing countries and have pushed for changes in what they say is a U.S.-dominated system of managing global political affairs.

Russia, along with India and South Africa, are also BRICS members. The grouping is set to convene for its annual summit in August and Lula -- who previously served as president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010 -- played a key role in championing the bloc in its early days.

"Eventually there will be some sort of peace in Ukraine and while it's unlikely to be from a Chinese or Brazilian proposal, Lula is looking to position Brazil on that side and score some foreign policy points down the line," Solar said.

A Foreign Policy Reset

Beyond burnishing his credentials as a peace broker, Lula is looking to deepen trade and investment between Brazil and China following a period of strained ties and an economic crisis at home.

China overtook the United States as Brazil's top trading partner in 2009 and is a leading market for Brazilian exports. In addition to the slew of deals expected to be signed -- ranging from trade to satellite construction -- Lula is also set to visit a research center of Huawei, a Chinese technology giant.

A key theme of the visit voiced by Chinese analysts and officials is a return to normalcy in bilateral ties. Chinese state media have commonly referred to Lula as an "old friend" of China's and said that Brazil is a leading voice within the Global South that Beijing should try to amplify.

"Especially in the context of escalating competition between major powers, Brazil should become a partner that China actively strives to win over in its diplomacy," Zhou Zhiwei, director of the Center for Brazilian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, co-wrote in a February report along with a team of other analysts.

Earlier this year, China and Brazil also moved to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar by signing an agreement on setting up yuan clearing-house arrangements that would facilitate bilateral trade and investment.

However, Brazil may be looking to avoid becoming overly reliant on China.

While Lula's current trip is set to deepen ties, he is also focused on cementing Brazil as a regional power in Latin America, having made trips in January to Argentina and Uruguay.

Lula also went to Washington in February where he met with U.S. President Joe Biden, a move that points to the balancing act present in Brazil's international affairs.

"[Lula] needs this frenzy of deals in China and talks with Xi in part to show his public that he's still an influential guy around the world," Solar said. "But when you look more closely, you can see that he is putting his eggs in different baskets."

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. To subscribe, click here.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Xi's Global China Playbook

After three years of "zero-COVID" isolation, China is stepping out onto the global stage to a far more unfriendly West and using its growing economic and military power to shape the world to better suit its interests.

Finding Perspective: This more assertive footing was on display in March, with Beijing surprising much of the world by brokering a diplomatic deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, one of the world's most volatile rivalries.

Xi has also continued to press ahead with China's peacemaker status for the war in Ukraine after unveiling a 12-point proposal for how to broker a cease-fire. The plan has largely been dismissed in the West but is gathering support from large players in the Global South.

The Chinese leader also drew the world's attention with a three-day visit to Moscow, where he reaffirmed Chinese support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and, among other developments, Russia increased its reliance on China's yuan as it seeks to move away from Western currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar.

PODCAST: Emmanuel Macron Hopes to dissuade Xi Jinping from supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while also developing European trade ties with Beijing. Can the French president’s diplomatic push succeed? Rikard Jozwiak, RFE/RL’s Europe editor, joins Reid Standish to discuss.

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Can Macron Convince Xi To Put Pressure On Putin?

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Beijing's Middle East moves and efforts to undermine the U.S. dollar globally also moved ahead, with China saying that it was open to talks with Malaysia on forming an Asian Monetary Fund, which would increase use of the yuan.

Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco, Riyadh's state energy company, said that an oil refinery it's building in China is expected to be fully operational by 2026, which comes after the kingdom announced in 2022 that it would be open to accepting yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales.

In another development at the end of March, the Saudi Council of Ministers officially approved a proposal to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Beijing-led bloc for Eurasia. Saudi membership -- coupled with Iran, who is also slated to join -- could give the SCO added energy sway with a trio of Moscow, Riyadh, and Tehran.

Why It Matters: There's still plenty of room for skepticism that the above will lead to lasting breakthroughs, but Xi's willingness to move boldly marks a new phase in China's vision for itself and its role in the world.

It also sends a message that Beijing and like-minded countries no longer have to conform to the U.S.-led global order and that increasingly substantial alternatives are being put on offer.

Expert Corner: Brussels Looks For A New China Line

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen outlined her vision for the future of EU-China relations during a high-profile speech in Brussels on March 30. The full comments can be found here, but I've selected a few noteworthy passages:

"Far from being put off by the atrocious and illegal invasion of Ukraine, President Xi is maintaining his 'no-limits friendship' with Putin. But there has been a change of dynamic in the relationship between China and Russia. It is clear from this visit that China sees Putin's weakness as a way to increase its leverage over Russia. And it is clear that the power balance in that relationship -- which for most of the last century favored Russia -- has now reversed.

"We have to be frank on this point. How China continues to interact with Putin's war will be a determining factor for EU-China relations going forward.

"I believe it is neither viable -- nor in Europe's interest -- to decouple from China. Our relations are not black or white -- and our response cannot be either. This is why we need to focus on de-risk -- not decouple.

"But I also want to say that nothing is inevitable in geopolitics. China is a fascinating and complex mix of history, progress and challenges. And it will define this century. But our story about how we relate to China is not yet fully written -- and it need not be a defensive one. We must collectively show that our democratic system, our values and our open economy can deliver prosperity and security for people."

Do you have a question about China's growing footprint in Eurasia? Send it to me at StandishR@rferl.org or reply directly to this e-mail and I'll get it answered by leading experts and policymakers.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Macron In China

French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Beijing on April 5 along with von der Leyen for a three-day visit as Europe tries to find a balance between its concerns over China's geopolitical moves and its economic ambitions for the country.

What You Need To Know: As I reported here, Macron is looking to add a more personal touch to his discussions with Xi as part of an ambitious diplomatic push to create distance between the Chinese leader and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Speaking ahead of the visit to Beijing, Macron said his goal was to "try and involve China as much as possible to put pressure on Russia" on topics such as nuclear weapons, with aides saying Macron will try to gauge Xi's reaction to Russia's threat to host nuclear missiles in Belarus.

EU officials who spoke to RFE/RL said that expectations were low within the bloc for Macron's moves to work, but the diplomatic gambit is part of a long-standing fascination from the French president on the need for Europe to keep a distance between Beijing and Moscow.

More so, even with criticism within the bloc toward China rising, there is still a belief that Brussels will need to preserve some kind of functional relationship with Beijing in the future to tackle pressing issues.

2. Watching Taiwan

With tensions high with Beijing, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy has confirmed that he will meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on April 5 as she returns from a tour of Taiwan's allies in Central America.

The Details: Ahead of the visit, China staged military drills in the East China Sea and has repeatedly warned against any official contact between the U.S. and Taiwanese authorities.

The meeting in California comes after some notable recent developments. On March 30, Marketa Pekarova Adamova, the speaker of the Czech parliament's lower house, finished a trip where she led a delegation of more than 150 business leaders and officials to Taiwan as part of Prague's growing outreach to Taipei.

While that visit was under way, former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou made a historic trip to China, where he called for people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to work together for peace because "we are all Chinese."

The symbolism of Ma -- who served as president from 2008 to 2016 -- traveling to China is significant, and he drew protesters to the airport in Taipei, who saw his visit as a form of capitulation to Beijing.

In the run-up to Taiwan's presidential election in early 2024, the series of visits have thrown up a host of questions about how Taiwanese politics is dealing with China and with the United States -- the two most significant foreign factors for Taiwan's future.

3. Same Game, New Rules

The ripple effects of China and Russia moving closer together are already being felt around the world, and as I reported here, those changes are being felt strongly in Central Asia, especially after Xi's recent visit to Moscow.

What It Means: The Kremlin traditionally viewed Central Asia as its strategic backyard, but has been displaced by China as the premier economic force for the region's five countries. Moscow's war in Ukraine has also released geopolitical and economic shock waves and seen China's role in the region grow through diplomatic summits and new initiatives.

Following the Xi-Putin meeting in late March, Xi announced that he would host a summit with the other Central Asian leaders in May. While China has hosted virtual summits with the region before, it would be the first in-person gathering at the top-level.

But Central Asia's story does not -- and never really has -- fully fit with one of Chinese and Russian competition. While each side has their own interests, the region is one that represents major overlap for Beijing and Moscow, a trend that was reinforced in Xi and Putin's joint statement in Moscow, where they said they would work together "to support the countries of Central Asia in ensuring their sovereignty and national development" and safeguard them against so-called "color revolutions and external interference in the affairs of the region.

Across The Supercontinent

Little Room For Maneuver: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with China's top diplomat Wang Yi on March 28 in what was reportedly a tense exchange that showed no sign of tensions subsiding.

The New Art Circles: Celebrity Russian maestro Valery Gergiyev has been fired and blocked by many cultural institutions in Europe and the United States because of his long record of support for Putin, but he recently received a warm welcome in China.

Gergiyev played a series of sold out shows in Beijing from March 27-29 that Chinese state media hailed as the beginning of a new era of cultural ties between China and Russia.

Belt And Road Woes: Between 2008 and 2021, China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 countries that are "almost exclusively" debtors in the Belt and Road Initiative, including Argentina, Pakistan, Kenya, and Turkey, according to a recent study published by researchers from the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and AidData.

What You Missed: Looking to catch up on what you missed when Xi made his trip to Moscow? Listen to the last edition of Talking China In Eurasia, where guest Raffaello Pantucci explained what the meeting means for the world and what to watch moving forward.

One Thing To Watch

China may be ready to change its position on the islands known as the Southern Kuriles in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan.

That report comes from the South China Morning Post, which cites an anonymous Chinese official as saying that Xi told Putin during their meeting in Moscow that China's stance was now neutral about the territorial dispute. Beijing's position has remained unchanged since 1964, when Chinese leader Mao Zedong said the disputed islands belonged to Japan.

It's an interesting development, if verified. There has been no official comment from any of the parties involved and Beijing has not issued a statement about any changes in how it views the territory.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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