China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

Looking ahead, we’ll be changing up the newsletter format and will start sending it out every week. Until then, it would be great to hear more about what you like about the newsletter currently and would want more of moving forward. Send me an e-mail to StandishR@rferl.org with your thoughts. Don’t be shy! :)

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast.

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Looking At Beijing's Ukraine Shuttle Diplomacy

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently wrapped up a trip to Beijing where he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, for talks on a series of "hot topics" amid Moscow's grinding war against Ukraine.

Finding Perspective: China has emerged as a close diplomatic ally for Russia and visits like this are becoming increasingly common.

Among those hot topics explored on April 8, Lavrov and Wang discussed bilateral ties and big issues like the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Asia-Pacific. The pair also said their governments had agreed to start a dialogue on Eurasian security with the aim of "double counteracting" the European-Atlantic alliance led by Washington.

The visit came as Moscow slowly but steadily advances on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine amid cracks in Western support.

In recent months, Beijing has also resumed some of the stagnant shuttle diplomacy between Kyiv, Moscow, and European Union capitals that began as the war entered its second year.

From March 2-11, Li Hui, the special representative on Eurasian affairs that Beijing appointed as its envoy, was doing the rounds in Europe as he sought to "mediate and build consensus" to end the "Ukraine crisis," which is how China officially refers to the grinding war.

Li's diplomatic rounds were similar to his previous tour, which failed to generate any headway. During his initial visit in May 2023, he promoted Beijing's 12-point paper (often referred to as a peace plan) that set out general principles for ending the war but did not get into specifics.

This time around, Li's European stops looked much more geared toward getting a feel for EU resolve toward the war and probing for cracks and space that could allow for an end to the war on more Russian-friendly terms.

There are few indicators that Li's shuttle diplomacy has generated any positive momentum. The 12-point paper received a lukewarm reception in both Russia and Ukraine when it was released in February 2023, and was criticized by Brussels and Washington for accommodating Moscow while not condemning the invasion.

Why It Matters: Li's recent trip looks less designed to find solutions to end the war than to gauge the levels of Ukraine fatigue among Europe's top brass.

Beijing has good reason to send out such a scouting mission. Elections for the European Parliament will come in June and the specter cast by November's U.S. presidential election is hanging over the continent.

The flow of U.S. weapons is currently held up in Congress and a victory for former President Donald Trump could further hamper support for Kyiv -- and there's major questions about whether European support alone could sustain Ukraine on the battlefield.

Both Beijing and Moscow are seeing some blood in the water at the moment and are looking to see if there's more.

The week before his recent visit to China, Lavrov said that China had proposed the most reasonable peace plan so far for resolving the Ukraine conflict -- and Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly travel to China to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in May.

All this growing coordination comes with a Swiss-hosted international peace conference in the summer about the war in Ukraine, where the issue of territorial concessions and what terms Kyiv and Moscow might be willing to accept will be hotly debated.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. European Lawmakers React To Chinese Hacking Campaign

The U.S. Justice Department unsealed an indictment in late March that says Chinese government-backed hackers carried out a multiyear campaign against lawmakers and critics around the world, including every European Union member from a group of deputies with hawkish views on China.

My colleagues and I spoke with some of those affected.

The Details: The indictment says Chinese government-backed hackers in 2021 went after "every European Union member" of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), a global group of lawmakers.

Some 66 lawmakers from 12 EU-member parliaments are listed on IPAC's website, along with members from Britain, the United States, Ukraine, Japan, and others. The Chinese hackers also tried to infiltrate 43 British parliamentary accounts linked to lawmakers that were also IPAC members or had expressed critical views on China.

We spoke with several IPAC-affiliated lawmakers targeted in the hacking campaign. Many said they received suspicious e-mails like the ones the U.S. indictment says were used to try to gain access to their accounts -- with some even being notified about it by their respective intelligence and cybersecurity agencies.

All of the lawmakers say the attempts were unsuccessful.

U.S. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said on March 25 that more than 10,000 e-mails -- which appeared to come from news outlets, politicians, and critics of China -- were sent as part of the campaign that relied on using phishing e-mails containing hidden tracking links.

Antonio Milososki, a lawmaker and former foreign minister for North Macedonia, told us that cyberattacks had been a mainstay since he joined IPAC in 2021.

Pavel Popescu, a Romanian IPAC member who led his country's parliamentary National Security and Defense Committee in 2022, told us that he saw the hacking attempts as a badge of honor.

"This [U.S.] investigation is not a surprise to me, but only a simple confirmation that everything I've done over the years in parliament has been done well," he said.

Beyond the IPAC members, the sprawling Chinese hacking cybercampaign targeted U.S. officials, senators, journalists, Chinese political dissidents, Western military and tech companies, as well Britain's election watchdog and members of the European Parliament.

2. A China-Kazakhstan Spy Saga

A leading Kazakh sinologist and former senior government adviser, Konstantin Syroyezhkin, who was sentenced to 10 years in prison on high-treason charges in 2019, has been released on parole five years early, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported.

What You Need To Know: The 67-year-old scholar was released from a maximum-security prison on April 4, but no further details were provided.

Syroyezhkin was sentenced on October 7, 2019. Details of the charges were not made public, but several local media outlets, as well as The Wall Street Journal, reported that he was accused of selling classified documents to people associated with Chinese intelligence.

Syroyezhkin is a former Soviet KGB agent, and from 2006 until his arrest in 2019, he worked as a leading expert and analyst at the presidential Institute for Strategic Research where he conducted research on China and Kazakh-Chinese relations.

It's unknown if Syroyezhkin has the right to remain in Kazakhstan or not, with reports from the time of his conviction saying that he was stripped of his citizenship.

3. Anti-China Terrorism In Pakistan

Five Chinese workers and their local driver were killed in a suicide bomb blast in northwestern Pakistan on March 26. Since then, Chinese contractors have halted construction on two major dam projects where the workers were assigned.

What It Means: The most recent attack was preceded by another attack on Chinese interests in the country in March near the strategic port of Gwadar.

The declining security situation highlights both the added pressure that the roughly $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is facing in the country, as well as the dangerous reality facing some Chinese megaprojects.

The Chinese companies working on the dam projects have demanded that Pakistani authorities come up with new security plans before reopening the sites where around 1,250 Chinese nationals are working.

On April 6, the Pakistani government announced that it would take disciplinary action against senior officials responsible for providing security to Chinese workers in the country.

The security of Chinese workers is a major concern to both governments and has become a growing point of friction between Beijing and Islamabad as Chinese nationals have been more frequently targeted by militants.

Across The Supercontinent

Not So Sweet: Beekeepers in Hungary say their "survival is at stake" because of plunging domestic honey prices, with some experts pointing to cheap, "fake" honey flooding the market from China as the culprit, RFE/RL's Hungarian Service reports.

Calling Comrade Xi: A conspiracy-minded fringe organization called Group for Romania is facing internal discord after some prominent members of the group publicly appealed to Putin and Xi for protection from Bucharest's so-called "Judeo-Euro-Atlantic political regime," RFE/RL's Romanian Service reports.

Yellen In Beijing: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrapped up four days of talks in China with a warning to the country's banks and exporters that attempts to bolster Russia's military capacity for its war in Ukraine will be met with sanctions.

Brussels Gets Tough: The European Commission announced that it is launching an investigation into Chinese suppliers of wind turbines.

This comes as Brussels continues with another probe into Chinese electric vehicles, as well as solar panels, where the EU says they're facing unfair market advantages through subsidies.

One Thing To Watch

The United States, Britain, and Australia are set to begin talks on bringing new members into their AUKUS security pact as Washington pushes for Japan to be involved as a deterrent against China, the Financial Times reported.

AUKUS, formed by the three countries in 2021, is part of their efforts to push back against China's growing power in the Indo-Pacific region. China has called the AUKUS pact dangerous and warned it could spur a regional arms race.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

Looking ahead, we’ll be changing up the newsletter format and will start sending it out every week. Until then, it would be great to hear more about what you like about the newsletter currently and would want more of moving forward. Send me an email to StandishR@rferl.org with your thoughts. Don’t be shy! :)

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast.

Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

Xi, Putin, And A Battle Of Narratives Over The Moscow Concert Attack

Islamic State (IS) was quick to claim responsibility for the bloody Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow on March 22 that killed at least 143 people.

But despite that claim and graphic body cam footage from the attack later posted by the militant group, Russian officials and state media have said, without evidence, that Ukraine was involved in the attack. Those claims have also begun to find their way into some Chinese state media coverage.

Finding Perspective: When President Vladimir Putin first addressed Russia on March 23, the day after the attack, he made no mention of the group, whose Afghan-affiliate Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) is believed to have carried out the deadliest attack in Russia since the 2004 Beslan siege. In comments on March 25, he asserted again that the tragedy was likely ordered by Ukraine.

There’s been little reference to the IS attribution from Russian officials and state media, with the focus instead being on unsubstantiated claims about the assailants traveling to Ukraine before being caught. Ukrainian officials have staunchly denied any involvement in the attack.

In China, coverage has largely centered around Chinese nationals. Shortly after news broke of the incident, Chinese students studying in Russia -- of which there are more than 44,000, according to official Russian figures -- began to share their stories on online platforms and with various Chinese media. In the 24 hours after the attack, it generated more than 21 million views and 7 million comments on the prominent social media platform Weibo.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping also promptly offered his condolences to Putin, saying that “China is against terrorism of any form” and that Beijing “firmly [supports] the efforts of the Russian government in safeguarding national security and stability.”

Chinese state media, meanwhile, have given growing space for Russian officials to link the attack to Kyiv -- and even American involvement despite U.S. warnings several weeks beforehand that an attack was likely -- which Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova asserted in a statement on Telegram.

“Until the investigation into the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall is completed, any phrase from Washington exonerating Kyiv should be considered as evidence,” she wrote. “After all, the financing of terrorist activities of the Kyiv organized criminal group by the American liberal democrats and participation in the corrupt schemes of the Biden family have been going on for many years.”

Why It Matters: The Moscow attack has quickly been wrapped up in a global disinformation campaign.

Russia’s NTV television channel aired a deepfake video following the attack that showed Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s top security official, appearing to taunt Russia and take credit for the attack. The video was later debunked as an AI-altered fake by BBC Verify.

This has been followed by online bots across social media in multiple languages amplifying claims of Ukrainian involvement and Western intelligence agencies being part of the attack.

The Big Picture: As Etienne Soula, a research analyst with the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, told me, Chinese state media exists on a spectrum and so far more nationalist outlets like the Global Times “seem to be supporting Russia’s allegations regarding Ukrainian involvement in the attacks,” and even quoted Chinese experts casting doubt that IS could pull off such an attack.

“Their framing of the attacks is very reminiscent of their early coverage of the war in Ukraine: quoting Russian current and former officials with no qualifiers, far more quotes of Russian officials than of Western voices (and almost no space for Ukrainian officials),” Soula wrote in an e-mail.

So far, the official line toward the attacks appears to be supportive of Russia, but comparatively reserved.

Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, told me that China and Russia aligning in the information space is hardly new, but it appears to be growing as both governments’ global interests overlap.

“Whether China believes Putin's version of the terrorist attack is irrelevant because China will use the version of the events that best serves its own interests and goals,” she said.

“Overall, China seems to boost the Russian narratives when they fit and advance China's own goals. As with this case, Beijing appears to particularly amplify the option of U.S. involvement behind it all – at least for as long as it’s feasible.”

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Chinese Wind Energy Meets Bosnian Corruption

A monthslong investigation by my colleague Predrag Zvijerac from RFE/RL’s Balkan Service shows how well-connected individuals in Bosnia-Herzegovina are facilitating the influx of Chinese investment into the country so they can benefit through murky land-ownership schemes and convoluted legal loopholes.

The Details: The investigation centers on the Ivovik wind farm project, China’s largest and most expensive project in the Balkan country.

This flagship investment has been championed by Bosnian authorities as a job-creating endeavor that will give the country a foothold in Europe’s growing green-energy space and open the door for future investments in the local economy.

But the wind farm’s lofty ambitions are now caught up in a complex saga of land disputes, questionable concessions, and murky deals that highlight where Chinese state interests and shady local business practices collide.

At the heart of the controversy around the Ivovik wind-energy project is a dispute over land ownership, with the government of the canton -- the administrative units that make up roughly half of Bosnia -- granting land to Chinese companies under questionable and possibly illegal circumstances.

Predrag found how cantonal governments are awarding concessions to Chinese firms for land linked to the project that belongs to nearby residents, dispossessing them of their land and allowing officials to generate large profits in the process.

The wind-energy project is the most high-profile example of this in the country, but Predrag’s investigation also shows that this practice is becoming a growing trend across Bosnia when it comes to Chinese cash.

Read the full investigation here.

2. Workers Targeted In Pakistan

A suicide bomber drove an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying Chinese workers, killing at least five of them, along with their Pakistani driver, police said on March 26.

What You Need To Know: RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal reported that the attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province was the latest in a series targeting Chinese workers who are employed in major public infrastructure projects funded by the Chinese government.

The suicide bombing marks the third major attack on Chinese interests in Pakistan in a week. The first two attacks targeted a Pakistan naval air base and a strategic port used by China in the southwest province of Balochistan where Beijing is investing billions in infrastructure projects.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack as of this writing.

The five Chinese who died were engineers at a key Chinese-funded hydropower project in Dasu, which is under construction by the China Gezhouba Group Company. In July 2021, a bomb placed on a bus carrying Chinese workers to the dam in Dasu killed nine Chinese citizens and four Pakistanis, while injuring 21 others.

3. The New Tightrope

On the same day that Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev met with a U.S. senator in Astana, he also welcomed Erkin Tuniyaz, the deputy secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in Xinjiang who is currently sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department.

What It Means: As RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service reported, Toqaev met Republican Senator Steve Daines on March 26 where the Kazakh president “underscored Kazakhstan’s focus on attracting investment, economic liberalization, and industrial development, outlining energy, mineral exploration and processing, and infrastructure modernization as key areas of mutual interest,” according an official press release.

Tuniyaz was sanctioned in 2021 for playing “a leading role in the persecution of the Uyghurs,” and other Muslim minorities in China’s western province, where Beijing led an expansive crackdown and internment camp system.

The dual meetings highlight Kazakhstan’s long-held balancing act between foreign partners. Amid an intensifying global competition between Beijing and Washington, Toqaev is looking to stay out of the fray and remain on good terms with both countries.

Across The Supercontinent

Huthi Deal: The Yemen-based Huthis have told China and Russia after talks with their diplomats that their ships can sail through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden without being attacked, according to Bloomberg, citing “several people with knowledge of the militant group’s discussions.”

Railroad Plans: Amid months of behind-the-scenes talks, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said “a common understanding on the mechanism for implementing” the much-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway has been reached, RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reports.

Balkan Buddies: Speaking after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic, who is also acting prime minister, said on March 21 that relations with Russia and China are in Belgrade's “vital national interest.”

Hikvision And a NATO Base in Romania: A few weeks ago, RFE/RL journalists in Romania found Chinese-made surveillance equipment installed at some 28 military sites in the country -- including the NATO base that is home to the Aegis Ashore missile-defense system.

Here’s a new video explainer breaking down the investigation.

One Thing To Watch

The U.S. and British governments accused hackers linked to the Chinese state on March 25 of being behind “malicious” cybercampaigns targeting political figures. London also alleged that China-affiliated hackers were behind an attack that saw the data of millions of voters accessed.

The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance On China (IPAC), a group of Western lawmakers, were also targeted by the group. My colleagues at RFE/RL’s Romanian Service spoke with local lawmakers affected.

While major powers are often looking to infiltrate each other’s networks and gain new information, the decision to so forcibly go public is likely to ramp up tensions with China.

The Chinese Embassy in London outright denied the allegations, calling them “completely fabricated and malicious slanders.”

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish