Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking into the back-and-forth between Israeli and Iranian officials over whether Iran is advancing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of threatening the United States.
What You Need To Know
• Could Iran Target American Cities?: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has raised alarms about Iran’s missile ambitions, claiming Tehran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US East Coast with minimal enhancements. While Netanyahu’s warnings emphasize an emerging threat to American cities, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi rejects these assertions as unfounded, stating Iran’s longest-range missiles are limited to about 2,000 kilometers and serve purely defensive aims.
• Calls Grow To Shut Women’s Prison: At least two inmates have died in Qarchak Prison, which is billed by Iranian media as one of the world’s largest women’s prisons. The deaths have reignited calls for the authorities to close the prison, which has long been a grim symbol of repression in Iran. RFE/RL’s Radio Farda spoke with activists who served time in Qarchak, with one describing the facility as “uninhabitable.”
• Iranians Feel The Pinch As UN Sanctions Return: Videos showing young women riding motorcycles through the streets of Tehran have taken social media by storm this week amid a debate over Iran’s longstanding ban on issuing motorcycle licenses to women. Under current law, only men can obtain a license, leaving women who ride motorcycles without insurance coverage or legal protections. Lawmakers are now reviewing a new bill that could finally address the issue.
The Big Issue
How Long Is Too Long?
Benjamin Netanyahu reignited debate over Iran’s missile capabilities this week, claiming that Tehran’s latest missile developments could threaten major cities well beyond the Middle East.
Netanyahu stated Iran is working on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with a range of up to 8,000 kilometers -- enough to strike the US East Coast if the range is extended further.
But Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi swiftly dismissed the warnings, labelling them as “fabricated” and “imaginary.” He reiterated Iran’s stance that its longest-range missiles reach approximately 2,000 kilometers, targeting only regional adversaries such as Israel, and maintain that their program is strictly defensive in nature.
But conservative lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani contradicted Araqchi in an interview with a local news outlet.
Ardestani, who is a member of the parliament’s influential National Security And Foreign Policy Committee, claimed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “has lifted all restrictions” on the range of Iranian missiles.
Why It Matters: Though Iran formally denies pursuing nuclear armament for its ballistic missiles, a senior Iranian commander hinted this month that missile ranges may be extended further if future security concerns warrant it.
This follows strategic shifts after the Israel-Iran war in June, which saw launch sites pushed further east inside Iran, necessitating greater reach for future deterrence.
In a segment of a 2021 documentary released by the supreme leader’s office, Khamenei tells a small gathering that military leaders “wanted a range of four to five thousand kilometers, but I wouldn’t allow it; I told them not to build anything over 2,000 kilometers for now.”
When someone in the audience asked for the justification, Khamenei replied, “There’s a reason,” and added that the commanders continue to complain to him because he won’t lift the restriction.
What's Being Said: Netanyahu warned on during an interview with American conservative political commentator Ben Shapiro that Iran is developing ICBMs capable of putting “New York City, Boston, Washington, or Miami under their atomic guns.”
“Iran can blackmail any American city,” Netanyahu explained. “People don’t believe it. Iran is developing intercontinental missiles with a range of 8,000 kilometers; add another 3,000 and they can get to the East Coast of the [United States].”
Araqchi responded on X, writing that “Israel is now trying to make an imaginary threat out of our defense capabilities” and accusing Netanyahu of goading Washington into fighting “Israel’s Forever Wars.”
Expert Opinion: The United States and its allies remain deeply concerned that Iran’s space program may serve as a cover for developing long-range missile technology, including ICBMs. Tehran, meanwhile, insists its program is peaceful, focused solely on communications and research.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, recently told Radio Farda that Iran’s satellite launch vehicles (SLVs) could, with some modifications, be converted for use as ICBMs.
“Normally, it’s the other way around: you turn long-range missiles into SLVs,” Nadimi noted, reflecting the dual-use nature of the technology.
Iran has sent several satellites into orbit using vehicles like Zoljanah -- a hybrid-fuel, road-mobile rocket -- but with a mixed record: numerous launch failures show the technology is still maturing. Nadimi added that while it may be “impossible” right now to turn Zoljanah into a true ICBM, “it has the potential” for future adaptation.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
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