The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking into what Iran's new cooperation framework with the UN nuclear watchdog entails and whether it can stave off the return of international sanctions.

What You Need To Know

• New Cooperation Framework With The IAEA: Tehran's new technical agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has injected cautious optimism into nuclear diplomacy, but is it enough to stop European powers from reimposing UN snapback sanctions before the clock runs out?

• Mood In Iran After Israeli Strike In Qatar: Israel's first strike on Qatari soil has sent shock waves through Tehran, fueling doubts about diplomacy with the West. Iranian commentators say the attack exposes the limits of negotiations. Middle East analyst Mehrdad Farahmand told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the failure of air defenses to detect the missiles "indicates that the United States had no objections to the attack." He added that this is particularly significant in light of the extensive US-Qatar defense cooperation agreements.

• Hospital Staff In Legal Trouble Over Hijab Defiance: Iranian authorities say a legal case has been opened against several staff members at Tehran's Sarem Women's Hospital for "behavior contrary to public decency and social norms." The move follows the circulation of a video showing graduates of the teaching hospital without hijabs and embracing the hospital's chairman. The hijab, or head scarf, remains mandatory for women in Iran, though growing numbers continue to defy the rule despite the risk of arrest.

The Big Issue

Limited Inspection Regime

On September 9, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi agreed in Cairo on "practical modalities" for resuming inspections, potentially including some sites bombed by the United States in June.

Grossi praised the move as "an important step in the right direction." Yet diplomats and analysts warn that the technical agreement will only matter if it swiftly leads to inspectors on the ground and substantive nuclear disclosures, not just more negotiations or delays.

Araqchi later told Iranian state media that, for now, the deal does not guarantee access for IAEA inspectors beyond the Bushehr nuclear plant. Instead, all further site inspections and transparency measures hinge on future negotiations and the approval of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Britain, France and Germany -- collectively known as the E3 -- remain skeptical, seeing the announcement as necessary but not sufficient.

Why It Matters: The E3 have repeatedly warned Iran to restore full IAEA access, disclose the location of its enriched uranium stockpile, and return to nuclear talks with Washington or face the automatic reinstatement of UN sanctions at the end of September. The snapback process is already set in motion, and only immediate, visible compliance can delay it.

What's Being Said: Araqchi has warned Iran will withdraw from the agreement if UN sanctions return or if any "hostile act" occurs.

President Masud Pezeshkian has insisted Tehran will not compromise on sovereignty or security and will nullify the pact if pressured further. Meanwhile, both Iran and the IAEA have expressed hope that the technical dialogue will avert a larger crisis, but the diplomatic window is narrowing rapidly.

In Iran, proponents of engagement with the West see the deal with the IAEA as a key step toward a new agreement with the United States over Tehran's nuclear program. Hard-liners, however, deride the new cooperation framework with the UN nuclear watchdog, which they accuse of spying on Iran for Israel.

Expert Opinion: Eric Brewer, a deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, cautioned that snapback sanctions would likely "slow but ultimately not stop" Iran's attempts to rebuild its nuclear program or even go for a bomb.

Brewer told RFE/RL that the exact delay is unclear due to unknowns over what parts of Iran's nuclear infrastructure survived the US and Israeli strikes. Iran could quickly set up smaller enrichment facilities to advance weapons-grade uranium production despite sanctions, he said.

On the policy front, Brewer warned that the worst-case scenario is Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) -- a process that can take 90 days.

Still, Brewer said outright withdrawal from the treaty seems unlikely, adding, "Iran would potentially see more value in further muddying the legal waters and use its relationship with the IAEA and status in the NPT as a sort of rheostat it can adjust for coercive leverage."

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Note: The next edition of the Farda Briefing will be issued on October 3.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking into how Iran, perhaps naively, is relying on China and Russia to help it withstand the impact of UN sanctions if -- or more likely, when -- they are reinstated.

What You Need To Know

• Pezeshkian In China: Iran's pivot eastward came into sharper focus this week as President Masud Pezeshkian attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China and held extended talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Tehran is trying to shore up support from Beijing and Moscow ahead of possible UN "snapback" sanctions -- a move that would reinstate strict arms embargoes and restrictions on missile-related activities.

• Will Women Be Granted The Right To Ride Motorcycles? For decades, women have been unable to obtain licenses, not due to an outright ban but because regulations only name men as eligible applicants. This gap has left female riders exposed to fines, confiscation, and harassment, while officials justified the exclusion under "Islamic values." A new government bill now seeks to amend licensing laws and extend permits to women.

• Unaccounted Enriched Uranium Likely Buried: Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said this week that there is "a general understanding" that Iran's 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium is likely still in underground facilities bombed by the United States in June. He told Reuters that the UN nuclear watchdog has had no indications to suggest the material was moved. Iran insists on keeping the location of the material secret.

The Big Issue

Eastern Friends?

The SCO summit provided Pezeshkian with a high-visibility platform to push for a non-Western world order as Iran faces the prospect of intensified isolation. Meetings with Chinese and Russian leaders were top priorities, highlighting Tehran's desire for Eurasian partnerships to counter Western pressure and economic stricture.

Russia, meanwhile, reaffirmed support for Iran at the UN level, jointly proposing a draft resolution with China aimed at delaying the snapback process.

Why It Matters: Iran has signed sweeping strategic agreements with both China and Russia, but these partnerships are transactional, not ironclad alliances.

Both Moscow and Beijing have benefitted -- cheap Iranian oil for China, Iranian drone technology for Russia -- in return for ambiguous pledges of support. Yet neither intervened militarily or broke sanction rules during recent crises, offering mostly rhetorical and diplomatic cover.

In fact, former diplomat Mohammad Sadr claimed in an explosive interview last week that Russia had "provided Israel with intelligence about Iranian air defense centers" during the 12-day war in June. That allegation, along with other claims he made in the interview, got him a court summons in Tehran.

If UN sanctions return, all member states -- including China and Russia -- will be legally bound to enforce the embargo on arms and missile technology. History and current signals show neither power is prepared to risk their global interests or defy UN Security Council decisions, especially in the sensitive realm of advanced weapon sales or missile cooperation.

What's Being Said: Pezeshkian told reporters after returning from China that "very important, strategic, and vital decisions" were made in meetings with the presidents of China, Russia, and Turkey.

He added that his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin lasted nearly four hours and included discussions about regional issues and UN sanctions.

"For China to turn SCO into a true bloc versus the West, it must bear the costs," argued Arman Mahmoudian, a researcher at the Florida-based Global and National Security Institute. That includes ignoring sanctions on Iran and Russia, he said, without which "a full-fledged anti-Western alliance won't materialize."

Expert Opinion: Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that China wants to use Iran to push back against US influence in the region, but for Tehran, this does not necessarily translate into significant economic benefits.

"China will back the Islamic republic to advance its objectives, but that does not mean it will invest money for development in Iran," he said, arguing that Beijing is "cautious" in its approach toward Iran's clerical establishment because it's not very stable.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.