The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL's Iran correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm exploring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's recent comments on engaging the United States and whether Iran is ready to make big concessions.

What You Need To Know

• Khamenei Gives Blessing To Talks With Trump: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this week appeared to green-light talks with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration in the hopes of lifting sanctions. Iranian officials had been signaling a desire to talk to Trump, but talks can't take place without Khamenei's say-so.

• Iran Frozen Out As World Warms Up To Syria's New Rulers: Syria's new government has reportedly held more than 200 diplomatic engagements since coming to power on December 8, including with Western and Arab delegations and, notably, Russian diplomats. Iran, however, is nowhere to be seen. Iran and Russia helped former President Bashar al-Assad fight rebel forces that now run the country. The Kremlin seems to have established some rapport with Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, but the Islamic republic has been entirely frozen out.

• U.S. Federal Funding Freeze Spooks Iran-Focused Advocacy Groups: NGOs and advocacy groups that focus on Iran have raised concerns about their work being impacted by the Trump administration's decision to pause federal grants and loans. The groups, some of which work on facilitating Internet access and monitoring human rights violations in Iran, argue that Tehran stands to benefit from the funding freeze. Hard-line media in Iran have welcomed the decision. A judge has blocked the temporary freeze, but the White House has said it will pursue its implementation.

The Big Issue

Expectations Vs. Reality: What Is Iran Ready To Give Up?

Khamenei told a gathering of state officials and envoys from Muslim nations on January 28 that Tehran should be wary of "enmity and grudges" concealed behind "diplomatic smiles."

But he followed that up by saying that when "you know the person you're dealing with," it's possible to "make a deal but you also know what to do."

This comment is widely seen as a green light to sit down with the Trump administration -- something that seemed impossible just a few years ago.

Why It Matters: Iran has suffered setbacks abroad and is facing challenges at home, not least a struggling economy and weak currency -- both exacerbated by U.S. sanctions.

Iran wants the sanctions lifted, but the question is what Khamenei is willing to negotiate away. Iran is at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades. With its network of regional proxies politically and militarily degraded, the only real bargaining chips Tehran is left with are its advanced nuclear and missile programs.

There are no good options for Iran: It insists its nuclear program is peaceful and meant to generate power, while its missile program is an integral part of its defensive doctrine. Budging on either will upset the Islamic republic's core support base, but not making any meaningful concessions will only add to international pressure and further sink the economy.

What's Being Said: Supporters of engaging Trump have taken Khamenei's comments to mean he is backing "cautious negotiations" with the U.S. president.

But opponents of talks with the West insist that it would be "naive" to take Khamenei's remarks as a green light to open negotiations with Trump.

Khamenei has perfected equivocation, speaking in vague terms that open up his comments to interpretation. He does not like to publicly commit to a position, likely because it shields him from taking responsibility when things go south.

Expert Opinion: "Khamenei's main plan is to buy time and manage the situation to navigate the second Trump presidency with minimal risk, based on the implicit acknowledgment of the regime's weakened position both domestically and internationally," says Ali Afshari, a U.S.-based political analyst and adjunct professor at George Washington University.

What's Ahead

These are the stories we'll be watching between now and the next issue of the Farda Briefing:

• Iran has been waiting to receive advanced Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia for nearly two years. A military official's comment this week about Tehran having purchased the warplanes has observers wondering whether delivery is close.
• Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref will attend a summit of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on January 31-February 1.
• RFE/RL's Radio Farda has interviewed Oscar-nominated Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof, whose movie The Seed of the Sacred Fig is up for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film in March. You can watch a sneak peek of the interview here.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

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The Farda Briefing, a weekly RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran, is returning after a long hiatus, and it's great to be back with you.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm delving into how Iran's top brass is signaling that Tehran is open to talks with the United States as Donald Trump returns to the White House.

What You Need To Know

• Iran Signals Openness For Talks: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masud Pezeshkian have insisted Western assessments that the Islamic republic has become weak and vulnerable are wrong. At the same time, Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif has appealed to Trump to "choose rationality" and resume nuclear negotiations.

• Tehran And Moscow Make A Deal: Iran and Russia, two of the most sanctioned nations, signed an agreement to enhance strategic relations for the next 20 years. But the deal is unlikely to help revive Iran's economy or bolster its defensive capabilities.

• Assassination Of Supreme Court Judges: Mohammad Moghiseh and Ali Razini were killed in their office in Tehran by a janitor who worked at the Palace of Justice. Both men had a history of handing down harsh sentences and had presided over several political cases. Moghiseh was under U.S. and EU sanctions for human rights violations while Razini was involved in the mass execution of political prisoners in 1988.

The Big Issue

Iran Could Be Gearing Up For Talks With Trump

Last year was one to forget for Iran as it saw its regional influence wane, its military deterrence against Israel and the United States crumble, and its economy continue its free fall.

But Iran's top decision-maker, Khamenei, has been trying to project strength. On January 22, he told a crowd of supporters in Tehran that it would be "delusional" to suggest Iran has become weak. Pezeshkian made a similar comment, insisting the West "can dream" about Iran's strength diminishing.

On the same day, Zarif, a former foreign minister who currently serves as a vice president to Pezeshkian, urged Trump to adopt a "more serious, more focused, and more realistic" approach toward Iran while speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

He also added that Trump's decision in 2018 to pull out of the landmark nuclear deal was "imposed on him" by his advisers.

Why It Matters: Iran seems to be signaling to Trump that it does not hold him responsible for withdrawing from the nuclear accord but instead blames his advisers -- many of whom do not feature in his new government.

Is Iran's policy on talks with Trump changing? It may be too early to tell, but what's being said now is a major departure from Khamenei's comments in 2019, when he said it would be "ridiculous" to engage with the Republican president.

What's Being Said: Hard-liners in Iran oppose talks with the United States, especially with Trump, whom they say believe will turn the screw on the Islamic republic as part of a new-look "maximum pressure" policy.

More moderate voices, however, are the authorities who could engage with Trump. The Khabar Online news website on January 22 said Pezeshkian had "an unrepeatable opportunity" to negotiate with the U.S. president, given his desire for making deals.

Political pundit Hossein Beheshtipur, meanwhile, told Iranian newspaper Ettelaat that Tehran had to "directly" speak with Trump but to do so from "a position of strength," a likely reference to Iran's expansion of its nuclear and missiles programs.

Expert Opinion: "Willingness to talk does not mean a deal is likely. The road to a new understanding is steep and there will be significant obstacles," says Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the Washington-based Eurasia Group.

What's Ahead

• Afghan and Iranian media say Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will travel to Afghanistan "soon," but no date has been announced yet. His trip would mark the first official visit to Kabul by an Iranian foreign minister since the Taliban seized power in 2021. Iran does not recognize the Taliban government, but that has not stopped it from establishing relations with it.

• Award-winning movie The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Iranian dissident director Mohammad Rasoulof has been nominated for an Academy Award as Germany's entry. Stay tuned as RFE/RL's Radio Farda will publish an interview with the celebrated director next week.