Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at how hard-liners are urging Iran’s decision-makers to green-light the development of nuclear weapons in the new Iranian year.
What You Need To Know
• Hard-liners Push For Nukes In New Year: Iranian hard-liners have renewed a push for the development of nuclear weapons in the new Iranian year, which started on March 20. As prospects of direct talks with the United States fade, they argue that only going nuclear can serve as a reliable deterrent to war.
• US Strikes To Degrade Houthis And Weaken Iran: Meanwhile, the United States has been launching wave after wave of air strikes against the Iran-backed, US-designated Yemeni terrorist group Ansarullah, better known as the Houthis. Analysts argue that the attacks are not only meant to restore freedom of navigation, but also serve as a warning to Iran.
• Authorities Step Up Crackdown On Female Singers: Iran has intensified its efforts to suppress female singers, detaining or summoning several women in recent weeks as part of a broader crackdown. Authorities have also targeted their online presence, shutting down Instagram accounts to further silence their voices. RFE/RL’s Radio Farda has the story.
The Big Issue
Have No Fear, Go Nuclear?
Sentiment to develop nuclear weapons has been growing in Iran in recent years, particularly among hard-liners who staunchly oppose engagement with the West.
The renewed calls come as Iran is weighing how to respond to a letter from US President Donald Trump on direct negotiations to reach a new deal over Iran’s nuclear program.
In a Nowruz appearance on state television, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on March 20 that the Islamic republic’s policy was to not have direct talks with the United States. He added that Iran is in “no rush” to respond to the letter, but will reply “in a few days.”
The letter, which Axios says includes a two-month deadline to reach a deal, is “mostly threats but also claims to have opportunities,” Araqchi said.
Why It Matters: Iran and Western powers are in a race against time. The 2015 nuclear deal, which has been effectively defunct since Trump withdrew the United States from it during his first term in office in 2018, expires this October.
In other words, the United States and its European allies only have until then to trigger the deal’s “snapback mechanism” to reimpose UN sanctions against Tehran. Without a new nuclear deal, the sanctions will, in all likelihood, return before October.
That could prompt Iran to weaponize its nuclear program, risking Israeli -- and possibly US -- air strikes on its nuclear facilities.
Last month, The New York Times reported that Iran was exploring the possibility of building a crude nuclear weapon to ward off an attack, but experts argue Western intelligence would still be able to detect it in time to launch an attack.
Curiously, there are those in Iran who prefer a limited attack on nuclear facilities to giving into US demands. They argue that, if the Islamic republic survives an attack on its nuclear sites, it would be worth the trade-off.
What's Being Said: Going for shock and awe, the hardline Vatan-e Emrooz newspaper’s yearend front page displayed a large picture of a mushroom cloud with a headline simply reading, “Nuclear Year.”
The paper alleged that, because the United States “cannot be trusted,” the world at large is moving toward nuclear weapons.
Nezamoddin Mousavi, a hard-line commentator, argued that, despite being militarily well-equipped, Japan during World War II lacked nuclear weapons.
“Japan had everything except for an atomic bomb, which America did have!” he wrote on X.
Nour News, which is affiliated with former national-security adviser Ali Shamkhani, hinted that Iran might withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if Washington and its allies “make good on their threats.”
Expert Opinion: “The chances for an Israeli-American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities this summer just went up pretty significantly,” Nadav Pollak, a lecturer at the Tel Aviv-based Reichman University, wrote on March 19.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
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