Middle East
- By Kian Sharifi
Who Was Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar?
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, is dead, according to Israel.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced on October 17 that Sinwar was killed during a military operation in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has not yet commented.
The 62-year-old was the alleged architect of the deadly October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The unprecedented assault triggered Israel's ongoing war in the Palestinian enclave.
Sinwar became Hamas's top leader soon after Israel's suspected assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the group's political chief, in Tehran on July 31.
Sinwar, the head of Hamas's military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, was not considered the favorite to succeed Haniyeh, who lived in Qatar.
Khaled Meshaal, a former political chief of Hamas, and Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent figure within the political wing, were seen as frontrunners.
Traditionally, Hamas's political chief is based abroad so he can travel and maintain contact with regional allies, such as Iran and Hezbollah. Sinwar is believed to be in Gaza.
A key reason for Sinwar's appointment, experts said, was his close ties with Iran, which has provided financial and military support to the group.
Molded By Israeli Prisons
Also known by his supporters as Abu Ibrahim, Sinwar was born in a refugee camp in the city of Khan Younis in Gaza.
His parents, like Haniyeh's, fled the coastal town of Ashkelon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War that resulted in the establishment of the state of Israel -- or what Palestinians call the "nakba," or catastrophe.
Sinwar joined Hamas shortly after it was formed in 1987 and set up its feared internal security organization, Al-Majd, whose main purpose was to find Israeli spies within the group. He gained a reputation for violence and was nicknamed the "Butcher of Khan Younis."
Sinwar was captured by Israeli forces and sentenced to multiple life terms for a variety of offenses -- including the killing of two Israeli soldiers -- and spent more than two decades in prison.
While in prison, Sinwar organized strikes to improve working conditions and emerged as a leader among incarcerated Palestinians.
Sinwar was released from prison in 2011 as part of an exchange that saw more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners freed in return for one Israeli soldier held by Hamas.
Soon after his release, Sinwar accompanied Haniyeh on a trip to Tehran, where he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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- By Kian Sharifi
Iran's Chokehold On Hormuz And The Limits Of Military Force
The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometer-wide chokepoint through which roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil passes, is effectively closed to normal commercial traffic.
Iran has not blockaded the strait with a chain or a fleet. Instead, it has made the waterway ungovernable through a combination of kinetic strikes, mines, electronic warfare, and market fear -- creating a closure that is arguably harder to reverse than a conventional blockade.
"I can think of no way to reopen and keep open Hormuz militarily and easily," Richard Allen Williams, a retired US Army colonel and former NATO Defense Investment Division official, told RFE/RL.
How The Strait Was Closed
The shutdown has four interlocking layers.
The first is physical: more than two dozen drone, missile, and fast-attack boat strikes on commercial shipping since the war began, with Iran demonstrating it can reach vessels hundreds of kilometers from the strait itself, off the coast of Iraq.
The second is mines. According to US intelligence reporting, Iran has begun laying mines in the strait. Its total arsenal is estimated at around 6,000, ranging from crude contact mines to sophisticated seabed devices that respond to acoustic or magnetic signals.
Laying them is easy; it can be done from ordinary fishing boats, indistinguishable from normal Persian Gulf traffic. Clearing them is not. It took the United States and its allies 51 days to sweep 907 mines off Kuwait after the Persian Gulf War, with the advantage of Iraqi minefield maps. Even a limited Iranian mining campaign would mean a closure measured in months.
The third layer is electronic. GPS spoofing and signal jamming affected more than 1,650 vessels on a single day in March, with navigation systems showing supertankers sailing over dry land and cargo ships transiting airports. In a narrow waterway, that level of disruption creates genuine collision risk with no missile required.
The fourth and final layer is financial: War-risk insurers have withdrawn coverage across much of the commercial market. Without insurance, ships don't move.
Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel, says the threat is structurally asymmetric.
"Just a few attacks per month is enough to increase insurance prices and market pressure," he told RFE/RL, comparing the situation to the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea. "This is a battle heavily tilted in favor of the disrupter."
What Washington Is Considering, And Why It's Hard
The Trump administration is weighing a couple of options.
Tanker escorts -- warships accompanying commercial vessels with drone and missile cover -- are the lightest footprint but require roughly two warships per tanker and continuous drone patrols overhead.
But the risk is high, according to Horowitz.
"A land-based attacker, even without a proper navy, can be very effective. A US loss would be dramatic and roll back the positive impact of escort missions in an instant."
Mines compound the problem further. The US mine countermeasure capability in the region, already limited to aging helicopters and troubled littoral combat ships, was weakened further when dedicated minesweepers stationed in Bahrain were decommissioned in late 2025.
Heavier air strikes aimed at Iranian coastal infrastructure are a second option. US Central Command says it has destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers. But Iran's mobile launchers are designed for shoot-and-scoot operations, and years of dispersal and hardening make systematic degradation from the air enormously difficult.
A third option that has been floated in the media is a ground operation, a Marine amphibious assault to seize or repeatedly raid Iran's southern coastline.
Williams was blunt about what that means in practice: large forces, mountainous terrain, and 190,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) troops with asymmetric warfare experience. "Difficult, expensive, risky," he said, "with no assurance of success."
The Bottom Line
Even an optimistic escort scenario would reduce traffic to 10 percent of normal volume, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence, with a backlog of over 600 stranded vessels taking months to clear. None of the military options address the insurance and market dimension -- and shippers, not the Pentagon, ultimately decide whether tankers sail.
Horowitz sees a negotiated settlement as the most realistic path, but flags two other possibilities: blockading Iran's own energy exports to pressure both Tehran and its top buyer China, or waiting for the collapse of the Islamic republic. He's skeptical of the latter.
"The chances of that happening quickly enough for markets to recover are low, to say the least," he added.
What that leaves is a strait that may stay closed for the foreseeable future, not for lack of military options, but because none of them can do what only a political outcome can.
Alex Raufoglu contributed to this report.
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran's Missile Cap Died With Khamenei, Putting Europe Within Reach
Iran for years maintained that it had capped its ballistic missile range at 2,000 kilometers.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's then-supreme leader, said in 2021 that he had imposed the limit despite protests from military figures, framing it as a deliberate choice.
That choice, according to Iranian military officials, was a signal to Europe that it was not in Iran's crosshairs.
On March 21, within weeks of Khamenei's assassination in the US-Israeli war with Iran, Tehran fired two ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint US-British base in the Indian Ocean some 4,000 kilometers from Iranian territory.
The cap, it appears, is gone.
The missiles did not hit their target; one failed in flight, and a US warship intercepted the second. Analysts note that striking Diego Garcia at all would require gutting the payload of Iran's most capable long-range missile, the Khorramshahr-4, to a fraction of its normal warhead weight, raising serious questions about accuracy over open ocean.
But the signal, experts say, was the point.
"The rules of the game have changed," Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel, told RFE/RL.
"Iran is in a war of survival and is making short-term decisions. For years, Tehran treated the 2,000-kilometer cap as a way to reassure the region while preserving deterrence," he said. "Now that logic is giving way to something more urgent: demonstrating that Iran can still impose costs, and that its capacity for disruption extends well beyond its immediate neighborhood."
The collapse of the cap within days of Khamenei's death is difficult to read as a coincidence. The 2,000-kilometer limit was never a technical constraint -- Iran's missile program had long exceeded it -- but rather a personal political one, maintained by Khamenei over reported internal resistance from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Danny Citrinowicz, a security analyst at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, attributed the strike to "the shifting balance of power inside Iran" and the "growing dominance" of the IRGC.
"The emerging Iran is likely to behave less like the cautious, calculating actor we've known and more like a risk-tolerant, North Korea–style system," he said.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father on March 8 as supreme leader, has yet to consolidate authority. In fact, he has not been seen in public since his ascension. Whether the attempt to hit Diego Garcia was ordered by the new supreme leader or driven by an IRGC no longer bound by the old rules, the outcome is the same: a constraint that held for years has evaporated almost immediately.
Horowitz argues the attempted strike on Diego Garcia reflects Iranian weakness as much as capability.
"The more its existing deterrent architecture breaks down, the more attractive nuclear capability and longer-range missiles become as substitutes," he said. "Iran can no longer be seen as a threat confined to the Middle East. It is building capabilities meant to raise the costs for more distant adversaries, too."
For Europe, the implications are significant. Iran now has a demonstrated willingness -- if not yet a reliable ability -- to strike assets far beyond its neighborhood while simultaneously threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in ways that would hit European energy markets and, as a consequence, bolster Russia.
"If I were the Europeans," Horowitz said, "I'd be worried."
- By RFE/RL
IAEA Urges 'Military Restraint' As Iran's Natanz Facility Hit, More Ground Troops Travel To Region
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reiterated its call for restraint as Iran reported that its Natanz uranium enrichment facility had been hit on March 21, as US and Israeli strikes continued despite US President Donald Trump saying the day before that the war could be "winding down."
No increase in radiation levels had been reported outside the Natanz facility, the IAEA said. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said in a statement that "no leakage of radioactive materials has been reported in this complex and no danger threatens the residents of the areas surrounding this site," it said in a statement.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, in a post on X, reiterated his call for "military restraint to prevent a nuclear accident."
This is at least the second time the Natanz facility has been targeted during the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran that began on February 28.
Natanz was struck by US B-2 bombers on July 1, 2025, during Israel's 12-day war with Iran. At the time, Trump said the facility was "completely and absolutely" destroyed.
Meanwhile, a massive fire was reported at a US diplomatic facility near Baghdad airport in Iraq. Images from eyewitnesses showed a huge fire followed by dark columns of smoke rising into the sky.
Iraqi security sources said the fire was reported after renewed drone attacks on the US diplomatic compound near Baghdad airport.
At least three strikes were also reported on the compound, with a fire breaking out after the third attack.
The pro-Iranian militia group Ashab al-Kahf claimed responsibility for the attacks in a statement.
On March 20, Trump said he is considering "winding down" military efforts in the Middle East, even as reports grow of thousands of US ground forces heading toward the region as the war with Iran enters its fourth week.
"We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran," Trump posted on Truth Social on March 20.
In the post, he listed the main US goals in the war, including degrading Iran's military and preventing Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Trump also suggested it will be up to other countries that utilize the Strait of Hormuz -- now effectively shut down by Iran -- to secure shipping in the crucial waterway and help put a cap on soaring oil prices that threaten to roil the world economy.
"The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it -- The United States does not [use it]!" he said.
"If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them," he added.
Trump's latest comments appear to be somewhat contradictory to recent remarks in which he suggested that, while Iran's military and leadership were mostly destroyed by US-Israeli air strikes, there was still work to be done.
The US Treasury Department on March 20 issued a 30-day authorization for the delivery and sale of previously sanctioned Iranian crude oil and petroleum products currently "stranded" on vessels.
However, Iranian oil ministry spokesman Saman Ghodousi wrote on X that Iran did not have any surplus oil stranded on vessels, rejecting US remarks that the action would free up some 140 million barrels for the world market.
Washington had previously granted a 30-day allowance for the purchase of sanctioned Russian oil that was also stranded at sea to bolster global supplies.
Israel To Ramp Up Strikes
Israel Katz, Israel's defense minister, said on March 21 that military operations against Iran are expected to increase in intensity in the coming days.
"The intensity of the attacks that will be carried out by the Israeli and US military against the Iranian regime and its supporting infrastructure will increase significantly," Katz said in a statement released by Israel's Defense Ministry.
A growing number of media outlets have reported -- citing unnamed US officials -- that thousands of additional US ground troops are on their way to the region, a move seen as giving the United States additional options in the war with Iran.
Trump, on March 19, denied to reporters he was about to deploy more troops, although he appeared to keep the door open: "I'm not putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you. But I'm not putting troops. We will do whatever is necessary."
Reuters cited three US officials as saying 2,500 Marines, along with the USS Boxer, an amphibious assault ship, and accompanying warships would deploy to the region, although they did not say what their role would be.
CBS, citing sources, reported that the Pentagon is preparing to send the famed 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
Newsmax, meanwhile, reported that the US military had already accelerated the deployment of thousands of Marines and sailors to potentially help reinforce its forces fighting against Iran.
Citing three officials speaking on condition of anonymity, the agency reported that the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit were deploying ahead of schedule from the West Coast of the United States.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, citing unnamed US officials.
"Roughly 2,200 to 2,500 Marines from the California-based USS Boxer amphibious ready group and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the US Central Command, responsible for all American forces in the Middle East," the Journal cited officials as saying.
The forces would be in addition to an earlier deployment of Marines, due to arrive this week in the region. The Pentagon sent the 5,000-strong, Japan-based USS Tripoli and 31st MEU to the Middle East, adding to the approximately 50,000 troops already stationed in the region, the WSJ reported.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian forces targeted the strategically important US-UK military base on the tiny island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean but did not hit the site in the most ambitious strike geographically by the Islamic republic.
The report said two ballistic missiles were fired, with one failing to reach the island and the other being fired at by a US warship, although it wasn't clear if the US interceptor struck the missile.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, AFP, dpa, and The Wall Street Journal
Zineb Riboua: What The War With Iran Means For China And Russia
Beijing and Moscow are both close partners of Tehran. With the US-Israeli strikes approaching a third week and Iran retaliating across the region, the conflict is poised to possibly -- and significantly -- affect those ties, the broader roles Russia and China play in the Middle East, and their relations with Washington.
Zineb Riboua is a research fellow with the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East and an expert on Chinese and Russian involvement in the region. She spoke to RFE/RL's Georgian Service about how China and Russia are responding to the war and what they stand to lose or gain.
RFE/RL: How is this war reshaping Beijing's role in the Middle East, its interests, its limits, and perceptions of China across the region?
Zineb Riboua: By attacking Iran, the United States is also indirectly weakening China's posture in the Middle East. For a few reasons, obviously China has a very good relationship with Gulf countries as well has a trade relationship, very transactional, some of them mainly because of the oil.
Obviously for China, it's beyond just [the] Belt and Road initiative and the Digital Silk Road. Why? Because Iran is a very aggressive partner to have. They terrorize the whole region. They have militias. These militias are very useful when you are openly contesting US power in the world, in a very important region due to its energy flows and to its importance.... You want that to happen because it's the only way you can gain a better posture.
There's also the fact that Iran plays a big role in sanctions evasion. China does not want to be a victim of US sanctions and does not want to be in the same position as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. Using Iran as a way to go around sanctions and financial channels is very important for China, especially when we're thinking about a possible crisis in Taiwan.
Lastly, Iran, because of its geography, is very interesting for China, which is why they had this 25-year cooperation agreement where the Chinese pledged for $400 billion worth of investment -- so that every single thing the Chinese would do would reverberate beyond just the Middle East, but also in Central Asia and other regions.
On many levels, it's very noticeable how China also benefited from a very aggressive Iran, to the point where Iran's own military arsenal was basically built by China --- the missiles, the components, the chemicals, a lot of it came from China. Also, there's the surveillance part, and Iran's own regime is obviously very repressive. They relied heavily on Chinese technology to identify people.
That just tells you the depth of China's involvement in Iran, but also how it spread towards the region. And so, Operation Epic Fury is actually dismantling a lot of this. Because whatever comes next, they will have to be a non-hostile US actor. Otherwise, the United States will not approve it.... So, I think that's a very dangerous thing for China to not have access to a regime that is as willing, as open, as submissive. That, I think, is a big deal.
RFE/RL: What can China realistically do to prevent the loss of this hugely important asset?
Riboua: This is a certain type of asset that is very hard to replicate. It's very hard to just replicate what the Islamic republic was doing. What they are doing right now is adopting a balancing position, condemning Iran's aggression against Gulf countries, because at the end of the day, all these things were actually for China so that they can get access to US allies, especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and these countries are very important.
I think they are going to recalibrate, but they will have to look at some other country where they can use it as a laboratory for sanctions and so on. I don't think a lot of countries will be open to doing that. You can see that by the fact that Trump is going not just after the Islamic republic, but also Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba.
The whole world is going to think twice about dealing with China precisely because China did not help Iran. It did not help Iran during the 12-day war and even now.
RFE/RL: Why didn't China help? If so much riding on it for Beijing, how long can it remain on the sidelines?
Riboua: They did not help and can't help because they see Iran [as] a dying regime. In [Iran], way before the strikes, you could see their inflation rate, youth unemployment, bad water management, incapacity to basically have a monetary policy.... There were all of the indicators that show that it's a dying republic, a dying regime. There is maybe a discussion about whether China basically just decided to do the rational thing, which is to not help a dying regime.
RFE/RL: What would be the cost of that? As you said, other actors are watching -- they're seeing that a strategic ally of China is being dismantled and China is not doing anything. What does that do for China's reputation?
Riboua: China cannot change what is already being done. There is little actually they can do when a military campaign is dismantling every single launcher, ballistic missile.
The military superiority of the Israelis and Americans has been quite extraordinary, to the point where even these leaks and these assessments showing that China maybe is sending targeting [intelligence] to the Iranians will not change the balance of power.
In fact, China helped and sent a lot of weapons prior to that. It's not working.... It's just a reality of it that even if China tries to help, it cannot do much. Other countries are watching, but they are also looking at the fact that Iran is just not popular.
One of the things Iran did was that they were hitting oil infrastructure [of] Gulf countries despite the fact that these very Gulf countries -- for example, Qatar -- played a very good role for Iran as they were transmitting a lot of messaging, etc. And they still hit them. China is basically in a weird position where it cannot totally dismiss the Islamic republic but it also cannot alienate Gulf countries.
RFE/RL: [If] we were to look at possible end games where China loses or where it comes out ahead, is it fair to say anything short of maximalist US objectives -- a US-compliant Iran where Trump gets to say who the next ayatollah is going to be -- would be manageable for Beijing?
Riboua: I think so. If the operation leaves even a spark of hope for the Islamic republic to continue, China can still capitalize on some of the gains because there is already a structure for it. But it will be very hard for China to use Iran as a tool as it used to. Gulf countries [are] already discussing how to expand their security partnership with the US. The security dividend [of] aligning with Israel is already paying off. The UAE, for example, sees that....
There's also a calculus that China was doing for a very long time: that there is a US fatigue with foreign policy intervention, that the United States would just not do anything about deterrence or preemptive action. This operation just breaks that model. It just shows that America is going to do things. And that changes...the thinking of China, [which] actually made a huge bet that the US is in decline.
RFE/RL: The Strait of Hormuz -- its closure, partial closure, or effective disruption -- has emerged as a potential trump card, no pun intended, for Iran. For how long and how effectively can Iran play this card?
Riboua: Not for long. It's a very risky card that can only be played once. And it needs to have the maximum pressure effect on a US president that just sees oil prices increasing and says, OK, we need to stop. But Trump just didn't. He absolutely did not change his posture. He doubled down.... The Iranians were hoping that it would be a huge debate in the United States and trigger some sort of reaction. It just didn't happen, really. I mean, it happened for a day.
RFE/RL: Does that also mean it won't happen if it drags on?
Riboua: I don't think it can drag on precisely because it's harmful for China. China will either directly or indirectly make sure it doesn't go on because it's not just about the oil -- it's also about fertilizers, and [planting] season is happening very soon. So Iran is hurting its own partners in this operation.
I also just don't think they have the necessary military dominance to do so for very long. Every single military operation needs to have a political effect, and it needs to, in this case, happen very fast. It just didn't. So even if they try to continue, the Israelis are still continuing their decapitation strategies. [Iran doesn't] have enough weapons or ammunition to continue. So I'm less pessimistic than many analysts on this one.
RFE/RL: As one of the responses to the Strait of Hormuz closure, a potential seizure of Kharg Island appears to be on the table. And it may not be particularly difficult to take, but how difficult and costly would it be to hold, including political costs?
Riboua: I don't have a good sense of the cost, but what I can say is I think Trump spoke about it in 1988 in an interview, so he's been looking at it for a very long time.... It just actually shows, however, that even if the Iranians accelerate their threats, the US is just doubling down on the operation, that it's escalating so that it can establish deterrence.
This is the real story that matters: that the Iranians have very few options left. And every day they have fewer. So I think they are being cornered.
RFE/RL: How much of a game changer would Kharg Island's capture be?
Riboua: It would be a huge game changer, at least for Gulf countries. It would show the United States is actually willing to follow through every single one of its threats.... It already is, at this point. But yes, if it goes through and it happens, I think it will have a huge effect.
RFE/RL: There's an ongoing debate whether Moscow is winning or losing in this, and one camp points to the degradation of yet another Kremlin strategic partner. The other camp points to higher oil prices and the temporary lifting of sanctions. So which is it, really? Is Russia a winner or loser in this?
Riboua: Russia definitely loses a key partner that was helpful in countering NATO. People, when they think about NATO, they always think about the eastern flank. But the southern flank is as important. And Iran played a huge role in weakening it. The Russians were also in Syria, but in Libya as well. And the Iranians obviously played a big role in that. So because NATO explicitly considers Iran as a threat, I think that it's overall bad news for Russia.
However, [the Russians] kind of decoupled from Iran after what happened in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad. They don't need Iranians in Syria anymore. They're speaking to Al-Sharaa.
They don't need Iran in Armenia or Azerbaijan anymore. It's a US-led coalition right now. Even on the drones, Putin took all the know-how for the drones and transferred it to Russia in a facility in Tatarstan.
Russia is not as dependent on Iran as it used to be, but it was a very critical partner in pushing against NATO.... Obviously, people are talking about the sanctions and how they are making some gains. It's true -- the numbers speak for themselves. However, we have to also take into consideration the fact that Russia's deficit and economy, no matter how much gain they're making, will not cover up for their structural economic failures. They're not in a very good shape. So that's also something to take into consideration because it will be important in negotiations with the United States.
Because of this, the Russians and the Chinese are exploring perhaps wider negotiations or cooperation on energy between Russia and China -- but the Chinese will expose themselves to Russian sanctions. Deepening ties with China will be very difficult to publicly state with a United States that is very adamant to break that.... My personal view is that it depends on what the United States does to make sure that it's a loss for Russia.
RFE/RL: Will there be consequences for Russia providing intelligence support to Iran, even at the level of a slap on the wrist? What we've seen is quite the opposite -- sanctions relief, even if it's temporary.
Riboua: Yeah, I think [the Russians] are doing payback for the United States providing intelligence to Ukrainians. But they also playing with fire because for the last two years -- last year, especially -- they had a Trump that was willing to actually sit down and think about Russian interests.... I think they are closing that window.
RFE/RL: He'll be less inclined to do so?
Riboua: I think so.... Russia showing once more that it is targeting the United States -- I think it will change a lot of the administration's calculus.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Will Tizard
Strikes On South Pars Oil Field May Impact Ordinary Iranians, Say Experts
Strikes that targeted the largest oil field on Earth, an area called South Pars that is shared by Qatar and Iran, may impact ordinary Iranians, say experts. The facilities process fossil fuels that supply Iranian homes with both heating and cooking gas. The attacks, which followed Iran's strikes on Persian Gulf states' oil resources, also indicate a deepening of the three-week US-Israeli conflict with Iran, say analysts.
Estonia Calls For Unity As US-Allied Divide Grows Over Hormuz Crisis
WASHINGTON -- Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur has called for unity between the United States and its European allies as US President Donald Trump signals frustration with NATO members after several resisted his calls to help Washington during its military action in Iran.
The dispute, driven by a deepening confrontation with Iran and rising global energy prices, is quickly becoming a broader test of transatlantic cohesion -- and of how the alliance responds to crises beyond its traditional scope.
Trump voiced frustration on March 17 after most NATO allies reportedly declined requests to deploy naval assets, including minesweepers and escorts, to secure commercial shipping through the narrow waterway, which carries roughly one-fifth of global maritime energy supplies.
Pevkur told RFE/RL that Tallinn is ready to discuss options with the United States and other allies, emphasizing that cooperation, not division, is critical.
"We are ready to discuss what the options are to solve the situation in the Middle East and also to ensure free trade," he said in an interview in Washington on March 17.
The Trump administration's push comes as Iran's blockade -- using mines, drones, and naval forces -- has effectively shut down the strait, sending oil prices above $100 per barrel and pushing US gasoline prices to their highest levels in months.
Divisions on Capitol Hill
The dispute also has put a spotlight on political divisions on Capitol Hill.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has backed the administration's position, warning that allies' reluctance could have "wide and deep" consequences for both Europe and the United States.
He described the situation as deeply frustrating and said it raises broader questions about the reliability of alliances in moments of crisis.
Democrats, however, urged a more cautious approach.
Senator Dick Durbin told RFE/RL that while NATO -- established in 1949 to collectively defend against the Soviet Union, of which Estonia was once a part of -- is being tested, it remains indispensable.
"We need to embrace our allies and build on our friendship," he said. "We don't need to find ways to divide us."
In key European capitals, many have made clear they won't participate in efforts to reopen the strait while active hostilities continue.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris would "never" take part in such operations under the current conditions, emphasizing that France is not a party to the conflict. But at the same time, he indicated France and other European countries could contribute to escorting commercial shipping once the situation "has calmed down."
Germany has taken a similarly cautious position.
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stressed that the crisis cannot be resolved through military means alone, reflecting broader European concerns about escalation and long-term entanglement.
Behind the reluctance is also a practical concern: that European navies could become responsible for a prolonged security mission in the Gulf, effectively policing the strait after the immediate crisis subsides.
While Western Europe hesitates, some allies on NATO's eastern flank are signaling a more open approach.
Pevkur framed the crisis not only as a security issue but as a global economic one.
"The situation in the Middle East affects oil, gas, fertilizers -- everything," he said, noting that rising costs will impact farmers, industries, and consumers worldwide.
"At the end of the day, this affects every citizen."
He repeatedly stressed that unity within NATO is essential, warning divisions would benefit Russia, especially in its war against Ukraine, which has for more than four years depended on the support of Europe, the United States, and other Western allies to try to keep Moscow at bay.
"This is the time to build bridges, and we cannot lose our unity," he said. "Russia has always wanted to divide us."
According to Pevkur, rising energy prices linked to the Hormuz crisis will strengthen Moscow's position against Ukraine beyond the economic benefits of increased revenues from oil sales.
"When they see cracks in our unity, they are only winning," he said.
"When one ally is asking for support, allies should come together and see what we can do," he said.
He also stressed the importance of continued vigilance toward Russia, even as attention shifts to the Middle East.
"The threat is always there," he said, adding that while a full-scale war with NATO is unlikely, allies must remain alert and maintain close cooperation.
A Coalition Problem, Not Just a Policy Dispute
Veteran US diplomat Daniel Fried said the current impasse between Washington and NATO reflects both shifting European positions and the difficulty of assembling a coalition for a complex, fast-moving crisis.
Speaking to RFE/RL, Fried, a former assistant secretary of state whose career spanned seven US administrations, said European governments had initially signaled an openness to limited military involvement.
He pointed to a March 1 statement by Britain, France, and Germany indicating they would consider supporting defensive actions against Iran, including countering missile and drone attacks -- a position he described as relatively forward-leaning.
Since then, however, several countries have ruled out participating in naval operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting what Fried called a degree of movement "back and forth" in Europe's stance.
At the same time, he said the situation is not fixed.
"It's not clear to me that the Europeans are completely opposed," Fried said, noting that some countries -- including Estonia and potentially others -- have signaled openness to discussions about possible contributions.
He said European reluctance reflects a combination of political, strategic, and practical considerations, including the risks of escalation, public opinion at home, and uncertainty about the scope and duration of any mission.
Even so, Fried argued that European interests are directly engaged, arguing it is "in everybody's interest" to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and defend Gulf states against Iranian attacks, particularly given earlier European signals of willingness to take on a role in the region.
He suggested European governments could still look for ways to contribute, particularly in defensive roles or limited missions consistent with their earlier positions.
Fried also stressed that any such effort would not formally be a NATO operation.
Without invoking Article 5, he said, the more likely framework would be a "coalition of the willing," with individual countries participating on a voluntary basis rather than through the alliance as a whole.
"I think they ought to see what's possible and what they could do," he said.
- By RFE/RL
Qatar Hit As Tehran Vows Retaliation For Strike On Massive Gas Field; US Says Iran 'Degraded' But Capable Of Attacks
Iran threatened to attack energy facilities throughout the Persian Gulf region after announcing that its massive South Pars gas field was hit on March 18 in the first reported strike on the country's Gulf infrastructure since the US and Israel began a bombardment campaign on the last day of February.
Hours after Iran vowed to retaliate, Qatar reported a fire at its main gas hub, Ras Laffan, after an alleged Iranian missile attack, with emergency crews deployed to contain the blaze and state giant QatarEnergy reporting "extensive damage." Qatar demanded that Iran's military and security attaches and their staffs leave the country within 24 hours.
Saudi Arabia said it had destroyed four ballistic missiles headed toward Riyadh, and reported an attempted drone attack on a gas facility in the east. Fragments of one of the missiles fell near a refinery south of the capital, the Saudi Defense Ministry said.
Meanwhile, Iran confirmed the death of its intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, a day after it acknowledged that two other senior figures had been killed. In Washington, the top US intelligence official said Iran’s government "appears to be intact but largely degraded by Operation Epic Fury,” the US name for its military operation.
“Even so, Iran and its proxies remain capable of and continue to attack US and allied interests in the Middle East," US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate hearing. "If a hostile regime survives, it will seek to begin a years-long effort to rebuild its missiles and UAV (drone) forces.”
South Pars is the Iranian part of the world's largest natural gas deposit, which the country shares with Qatar, across the Gulf. "A spokesman for Iran’s central command said Tehran would “severely strike the origin of this aggression,” calling it legitimate to hit the attacker’s “fuel, energy, and gas infrastructure.”
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari described the targeting of facilities linked to South Pars as a “dangerous and irresponsible step,” warning that attacks on energy infrastructure threaten global energy security, regional stability, and the environment.
Qatar blamed Israel for the attack, which was also criticized by the United Arab Emirates.
Global oil prices -- which have risen as a result of the war and Iran's virtual blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for Gulf oil -- increased after news of the strike, which increased concerns about dangers to energy infrastructure in the region as the conflict persists.
“The attack...indicates Israel’s willingness to hit aspects of Iran’s energy infrastructure, and then of course Iran’s willingness to retaliate against other energy targets," Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
It's unclear if "Israel is going to start targeting energy infrastructure more broadly -- this could be a warning shot, a prelude to a more significant campaign. It’s also unclear if Iran’s retaliation against [Gulf] energy targets is going to be significant enough to deter additional attacks, given that its capabilities have been degraded," he said.
"So we will have to wait and see but this does suggest that without de-escalation , likely led by President Trump, this war is going to continue and could very well escalate to a point where energy becomes a more prominent target," Brew said.
Trump asserted on March 17 that the US campaign "will be over in a week or two and it won't take long." He did not provide a more specific time frame, but added that "everything is moving very quickly" and that "we are well ahead of schedule."
Gabbard's appearance at the Senate left questions about the state of Iran's nuclear program. Her prepared remarks said that Tehran's enrichment capability had been destroyed in US-Israeli strikes last June and that the US had not seen efforts to rebuild, while her oral testimony suggested Iran was attempting to recover from damage.
Intelligence chief Khatib was the latest in a growing number of senior Iranian figures who have been killed since the longtime supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, died on February 28, the first day of the US-Israeli campaign. His son, Ayatollah Mojtabi Khamenei, has not been seen in public since he was named as the new supreme leader.
Acknowledging Khatib's demise in an X post on March 18, which also named the head of Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, and the country's defense minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, who died in earlier attacks, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said that their "cowardly assassination" had "left us in mourning."
Early on March 18, a barrage of Iranian missiles killed two people in Israel, near Tel Aviv, as Tehran vowed revenge for the assassination of Larijani. Tehran said the overnight attacks, which brought the war's death toll in Israel to at least 14, were to "honor" Larijani's death.
A statement read by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on state television said the attacks used Khoramshahr-4 and Qadr missiles, both of which carry multiple warheads.
Israel has accused Iran of repeatedly using cluster munitions, which split into several smaller bombs midflight and spread over a wide area, making them difficult to intercept.
Iranian media on March 18 reported strikes in Lorestan Province and Hamedan city, both in the west of Iran, as well as the southern Fars Province.
Israel also intensified its strikes on targets that it said are related to Iranian-backed Hezbollah -- which the United States and Israel have deemed a terrorist organization -- in Lebanon. Several people were reported dead in the attacks, which are bolstering concerns that the conflict could be widen throughout the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Rosatom, the Russian operator of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in western Iran, said a projectile hit an area near the facility on March 17, though no damage or injuries or release of radiation were reported.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi reiterated the IAEA's "call for maximum restraint during the conflict to prevent risk of a nuclear accident," the nuclear watchdog said in a post on X.
Russian-built Bushehr, on the Gulf coast, is Iran's sole nuclear power plant; it is fueled by uranium produced in Russia, not Iran, and is monitored by the IAEA. Russia has evacuated some staff, but hundreds remain.
Several explosions were also heard in Jerusalem on March 18, following the Israeli military's announcement that it had detected a new wave of missiles fired from Iran.
Larijani was killed along with his son Morteza, his deputy Alireza Bayat, and several bodyguards, the Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said in a statement late on March 17. Larijani was secretary of the council and one of the most powerful figures in Iran following Ali Khamenei's killing.
Separately, the IRGC confirmed the death of Qolamreza Soleimani, commander of Iran's paramilitary Basij force, giving few details. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had said Soleimani and Larijani were killed in the same series of strikes on March 16.
Khatib was killed in a targeted strike on Tehran, the IDF said. "Khatib played a significant role during the recent protests throughout Iran, both with regards to the arrest and killing of protesters," it said in a statement published on Telegram.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Defense Ministry had previously authorized the Israeli military to target any senior Iranian official without requiring additional approval.
The US-Israeli offensive against Iran has shown no signs of letting up, and air raid sirens were heard in several locations around the Middle East on March 18.
Several loud explosions were heard in Dubai early in the day as officials in the United Arab Emirates said the country's air defense systems had intercepted 13 ballistic missiles and 27 drones launched by Iran on March 18.
According to Emirati officials, more 2,000 drones and missiles have been fired at the country by Iran since the start of the war.
Trump said on March 17 that the United States had been informed by most of its NATO allies that they don't want to get involved with the country's military operation in Iran.
Trump had called for help securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively shut down with attacks on vessels and threats of more.
Some countries had said they'd consider such a move, but many others rejected getting involved.
A senior official of the United Arab Emirates said the country is considering joining the US naval initiative.
Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said negotiations are continuing in this regard, but a final decision has not yet been made, and emphasized that ensuring trade and energy security is the shared responsibility of major countries.
Iran's targeting of crude oil and gas producing nations around the Gulf has pushed energy prices up sharply in many countries.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda and Reuters
- By Amos Chapple
Amid US-Israeli Campaign, Iranian Kurds Watch And Wait
After initially voicing support, US President Donald Trump says he doesn't want Iran's Kurds to enter the military operation against Tehran -- at least for now. Still, one group of exiled Kurds is "preparing for war" just in case, according to a photographer who visited one stronghold of Iranian Kurds.
Photojournalist Sedat Suna gained access on March 12 to a mountain base of the Komala -- Reform Faction, an armed political entity of Iranian Kurds based in the northeastern region of Iraq that has recently been targeted by Iranian drone strikes.
The armed group is part of an alliance of several Iranian Kurdish political parties that was formed shortly before the US-Israeli military operation was launched on February 28. It seeks a self-determining region within Iran that would be similar to the current semiautonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
"They see [the war] as an opportunity," the photographer told RFE/RL, adding that the fighters insisted they are not waiting for a green light from the United States to enter the conflict in Iran. "They say they can make their own decisions."
A spokesman for the Komala party has vowed the fighters would "start the liberation," in the Kurdish region of Iran, provided the United States pledges support.
Kurds are an ethnic group of around 30-40 million people living largely across mountainous areas spanning parts of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. The mostly Sunni Muslim group is one of the world's largest ethnicities without a country of their own.
Iranian Kurds live mostly along the western border of the country and make up around 10 percent of Iran's population of some 92 million.
Kurdish relations with Tehran have remained tense since soon after the 1979 Islamic Revolution when the country's new rulers launched mass killings of Kurds, who were viewed as a danger to Iran's territorial integrity.
Today, observers say there are immense complications involved with potential Kurdish involvement in the ongoing war in Iran.
Kamran Matin, an Iran expert at Sussex University, says exiled Iranian Kurdish groups enjoy widespread support inside Iran's Kurdish region, but he believes only a specific set of conditions would open the door to Iranian Kurds -- both inside and outside the country -- openly entering the war against the Islamic republic.
Firstly, Matin says, Iranian regime forces would need to be "significantly degraded in [Iranian] Kurdistan." Additionally, Kurdish groups would require an "explicit commitment from the US for long term military and political support in the form of the establishment of a no-fly zone over Iranian Kurdistan."
And, he says, they would need a US pledge of support for Kurdish rights within a future Iran.
That level of US commitment appears unlikely for now.
Amid reports the CIA was arming Kurdish groups in neighboring Iraq, on March 5 Trump stated he would be "all for it" if Iranian Kurds sparked an uprising. He later walked that back, telling reporters he had ruled out the Kurds getting involved, saying, "We don't want to make the war any more complex than it already is."
Photographer Suna says there is widespread goodwill toward the United States among the fighters he visited, with some bearing US flags on their uniforms.
In Iraqi Kurdistan, the authorities have ruled out the idea of Iraqi Kurds entering the war in Iran.
Qubad Talabani, the deputy prime minister of Iraq's Kurdistan Region, recently told reporters, "We're not guns for hire."
In a message apparently aimed at Iranian Kurdish militant groups in Iraq, the Kurdistan regional government has also stated that "Iraqi territory must not be used as a launching point for attacks against neighboring countries."
For its part, Tehran has threatened that if there is any incursion by Kurdish fighters from Iraqi territory, "all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq...will be widely targeted."
Will Iran Mine The Strait Of Hormuz?
This tiny stretch of water carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil. And Iran is trying to close it by mining it. US President Donald Trump has put pressure on European allies to help protect the Strait of Hormuz, warning that NATO faces a “very bad” future if its members fail to come to Washington’s aid.
- By Frud Bezhan
Next Flashpoint In Iran War? The Bab Al-Mandab Strait Off Yemen's Coast
Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to a massive US-Israel bombing campaign has wreaked havoc on world energy markets and sent oil prices soaring.
Things could get even worse, experts say, if passage through the Bab al-Mandab Strait -- another crucial shipping route in the Middle East -- is also disrupted.
A choke point off Iran's coast, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and global markets via the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Likewise, Bab al-Mandab is a narrow passage for ships entering or exiting the Red Sea, whose Yemeni coastline is largely controlled by the Houthi rebels, an armed group backed by Iran.
A US-designated terrorist organization that has previously attacked international ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, the Houthis -- one of Tehran's most potent allies -- have so far stayed out of the US-Israeli war on Iran. If they do enter the fray, there will be even more shock waves across energy markets, experts say.
"The Houthis' threat here is a real one," said Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait accounts for around 6 percent of the world's seaborne-traded oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, has been redirecting millions of barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via its East-West pipeline since the war began on February 28.
"There's a large number of tankers that are now making the Red Sea transit to pick up crude" from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu, the country's only other oil-export route, said Brew. "This is very important for oil markets because it relieves pressure from the total shutting of the Persian Gulf."
"But if the Houthis attacked Yanbu and if they did enough to disrupt exports from the terminal, then you're looking at" a disruption of 7 millions barrel per day, he said.
‘Fingers On The Trigger'
The Houthis have not made a formal announcement of joining the Iran war. But their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has said the group was ready to strike any time it sees fit.
"Regarding military escalation and action, our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it," he said in a televised speech on March 5.
Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency said on March 12 that the Houthis were on full alert and could join Tehran's war effort. Fars warned that the involvement of the Houthis in the war could lead to the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
It is unclear if the Houthis' absence from the Iran war is deliberate or a sign of the group's current weakness.
US and Israeli air strikes have degraded the Houthis' fighting capabilities in recent years. The strikes were in response to the Houthis' missile and drone attacks on Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea. In May 2025, the group signed a cease-fire deal with the United States.
The Houthis are a key member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel. But the Houthis retain considerable autonomy and Iran has only limited control over the group's actions, experts say.
Another member of the axis, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, has opened a second front in the war by firing rockets and drones into Israel. That has triggered a devastating military response from Israel, which has sent ground troops into Lebanon and waged a deadly aerial campaign.
"I think the Houthis' fiscal and military situation would discourage them from engaging in large-scale hostilities," said Brew. "The US and Israeli campaigns did real damage to the Houthis' position in Yemen. They're struggling to pay their fighters."
But Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the Houthis' decision to stay out of the war is a calculated move coordinated with Iran.
"Rather than activating all fronts at once, Iran appears to be managing escalation gradually and keeping the Houthis in reserve," said Nagi. "In this sense, the Houthis function as an important card that can be played later, especially given their ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping and create wider economic and security pressure."
Holding the Houthis back preserves that leverage, Nagi said.
"If the military pressure on Iran increases or the war enters a more critical phase, the Houthis could still jump in despite the potential costs on their domestic front in Yemen," he added. "Their current restraint therefore looks more like timing than reluctance to get involved."
- By RFE/RL
Trump Says US Doesn't Know If Iran Leader Is Alive, Calls For Support On Strait Of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump questioned whether Iran's new supreme leader is alive and pressed Washington's call for help securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively shut down with attacks on vessels and threats of more.
Trump's comments at a White House event on March 16 underscored the uncertainties that persist in the Middle East and beyond more than two weeks after the United States and Israel began a massive campaign of air strikes against Iran.
"We don't know...if he's dead or not. I will say that nobody has seen him, which is unusual," Trump said of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, whose selection to replace his father, killed on the first day of US-Israeli bombardment, was announced on March 9.
The younger Khamenei, 56, has not appeared in public, and US defense chief Pete Hegseth said last week that he was believed to have been wounded in the strikes.
"A lot of people are saying that he's badly disfigured. They're saying that he lost his leg...and he's been hurt very badly," Trump said. "Other people are saying he's dead."
Trump also asserted that Iran had expressed interest in negotiations, but suggested the country's leadership remains disorganized amid strikes he said have hit more than 7,000 targets across Iran, destroyed more than 100 of its naval vessels, and significantly reduced its ability to launch missiles and drones since February 28.
"We don't know who their leader is," Trump said. "We have people wanting to negotiate. We have no idea who they are."
Amid uncertainty over how long the war will last, Trump was later asked whether it would end this week and said, "I don't think so, but it will be soon; it won't be long."
However, he also said he has asked Beijing to delay his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the beginning of April for "a month or so" due to the war.
"Because of the war I want to be here, I have to be here, I feel," Trump said.
Strait Of Hormuz
Trump, who had said in a social media post a day earlier that "many countries" would be sending warships to help restore shipping in Strait of Hormuz, said on March 16: "Some countries have already started to get there.
"It takes a little while to travel an ocean, but we have some that are really enthusiastic," he said, without naming any country. "Some are less than enthusiastic, and I assume some will not do it."
Iran has responded to the attacks by using attacks and the threat of more to hamper shipping in the strait, virtually halting passage into and out of the Persian Gulf through a bottleneck that normally handles about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.
Blockage of the strait has crimped supplies, sending oil prices higher and compounding concerns about the war's effects on the economy -- both globally and at the gas pump, where prices have also climbed higher.
Trump said he had spoken with French President Emmanuel Macron about forming a coalition to secure the strait, describing Macron's response as "an eight on a scale of zero to 10" and expressing confidence that France would assist.
He criticized Britain's reluctance to provide support and said he was "not happy" with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who had said he wanted a "viable" option to reopen the strait. But Trump also said he believes the United Kingdom will participate.
A day earlier, he said that "hopefully" China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and "others" would join. But the response on March 16, however, was somewhat muted.
Britain and Denmark appeared open to helping aid shipping in the Middle East, though with caveats on not being drawn into the broader conflict the United States and Israel are waging against Tehran.
"We are working with others to come up with a credible plan for the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that we can reopen shipping and passage through the strait," British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.
The Wall Street Journal on March 15, citing unnamed US officials, reported the Trump administration may announce, as soon as this week, that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition for escorting ships through the crucial waterway.
The report said the matter is still being discussed and that the mission could shift depending on battlefield conditions. It also said potential participants were debating when such a mission would begin -- during hostilities or only after a cease-fire.
European Union foreign ministers displayed no desire to expand an EU naval mission in the Middle East to the Strait of Hormuz, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said after discussions on March 16. The mission, which involves a just a few vessels was set up in 2024 to protect ships from attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.
Ministers conveyed "a clear wish to strengthen this operation, but for the time being, there was no appetite in changing the mandate of the operation," Kallas said.
"While the Strait of Hormuz is at the center stage, the Red Sea also remains critical," she said.
Germany, Greece, and Italy, meanwhile, appeared to rule out participation altogether.
"What does Trump expect from a handful of European frigates that the powerful US Navy cannot do? This is not our war; we have not started it," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.
In an interview published on March 16 by The Financial Times, Trump said NATO faces a "very bad future" if member nations do not help the United States in Iran.
"It's only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there," the FT quoted Trump as saying.
Big Oil Warning
The Wall Street Journal also reported US oil executives had warned administration officials that the energy crisis caused by the Iran war is likely to worsen.
In a series of White House meetings and talks with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips said disruptions to shipping in the strait "would continue to create volatility in global energy markets," the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Should military forces begin escorting ships through the strait while hostilities were still under way, it would mark a dangerous new phase in the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Tehran has fired back at US Arab allies in the region and could target foreign navies in the strait, even though Trump and other US officials have said Iran's navy has been destroyed during the US-Israeli air strikes.
Despite being pounded by US and Israeli air power, Iran has remained defiant, launching missiles and drones against Israel and US Arab allies in the region.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on March 15 disputed Trump's claim that Tehran was seeking to negotiate with Washington. Trump said he was not ready for talks because Tehran's "terms were not good enough."
"We have never asked for a cease-fire, and we have never asked even for negotiations," Araqchi told CBS TV. "We are ready to defend ourselves for as long as it takes."
At the United Nations on March 16, Iran vowed that it would not submit to "lawless aggression."
"The most urgent and fundamental human rights issue concerning Iran is the imminent threat to the lives of 90 million people whose lives are in immediate and grave danger under the shadow of reckless military aggression," said Ali Bahreini, Iran's ambassador to the UN in Geneva.
With reporting by RFE/RL Washington correspondent Alex Raufoglu, RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, and AFP
- By Ray Furlong
Interview: Iran's Use Of Chinese Doctrine And Tech Under The Spotlight
TEL AVIV -- The Iran war offers huge lessons for the effectiveness of Chinese military doctrine and hardware, both used by the Iranian military, according to Eran Ortal, a reserve Brigadier General in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
Speaking to RFE/RL from a location near Tel Aviv late on March 14, Ortal said Iranian tactics around the Strait of Hormuz were very similar to those that China would be expected to employ in a future conflict around Taiwan.
The US and Chinese military would be “taking notes” as the current conflict played out, he added.
Ortal was previously commander of the IDF’s Dado center, a military studies unit at the General Staff. He is now head of the military program at the Begin-Sadat center (BESA) at Bar-Ilan University and a visiting scholar at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC).
RFE/RL: Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Is there a military solution, and if so, what does it look like?
Eran Ortal: Well, that's the nature of asymmetric warfare. You can take out the Iranian fleet and the entire Iranian Navy, and the Fifth Fleet has done that. But the asymmetric capabilities, the speed boats, the unmanned boats, the mines and the coastal missiles will still be there. And this is a threat you cannot just totally remove. It's just like we have the anti-tank missile problem in Lebanon. You can take some of them out, you can have countermeasures, but they will always be able to snipe away.
You can protect the vessels going through the Hormuz Straits and you can win the war. That's basically the tactic and the strategy to maneuver around this problem. And I guess this is the American strategy.
RFE/RL: You're saying basically that they could protect shipping to some degree but there'd be no guarantee and that ships could be lost?
Ortal: Yes, but to a sufficient degree, to a good degree. But then again, it's not just a tactical question. And you can see the Iranians realize that. So, they went after the UAE oil facilities that go around the straits, directly to the Strait of Aden. A big chunk of the oil is going out through other ways, and they're trying to sabotage that too.
RFE/RL: The United States has decided to move forces from Asia. This includes 2,500 Marines, a naval assault ship. What do you think that's for? Is it maybe for Kharg Island?
I think this really can benefit the Americans with a learning experience viewing a possible future conflict in the South China Sea. I'm sure the American team is taking notes."
Ortal: The first meaning is deterrence: “We're all in, we can keep that on, and we can escalate.” The next thing is the operational intent. I guess it can mean that CENTCOM (US Central Command) might have some operations regarding the opening of the Hormuz Straits on the Iranian coastline. It can also mean that we can take the Kharg island.
And maybe another operational intent might be the 440 kilos of enriched uranium somewhere out there buried in one of the Iranian mountains that only a ground operation can remove if the Iranian regime is not taken out by the end of this war.
RFE/RL: This is the 450 kilograms of enriched uranium that Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, spoke about. Let’s look at the air campaign. There have been some discussions in Israeli media that Iran could end up looking like Gaza, that there could be that level of destruction and civilian death. Do you think that’s a possibility?
Ortal: If that phrase means that Iran can be deeply hurt and much of its infrastructure is ruined, then yes. But Gaza is totally ruined not because of bombings from the air. It's totally ruined because it was a battle space prepared by Hamas to repel any future Israeli offensive. That is far from being the situation on the ground in Iran. That's a 90-million country. It's so much bigger than Gaza. So no, this kind of space cannot be as ruined as Gaza.
Chinese Tech And Tactics
RFE/RL: Turning to a different aspect of this, what military lessons do you think that Israel and the United States are learning from this current conflict? One thing that occurs to me is that Iran has a lot of Chinese military tech, for example.
Ortal: Iran's strategy is what the American military would call A2AD, anti-access area denial. It means that with long-range precision missiles and other kinds of capabilities, you deter the other side from coming into the theater. That's the anti-access part.
The area denial part is what you see in the Hormuz Straits. They cannot compete with the Americans about control of the sea and control of the air. But they can try to deny the free use of these two spaces from the Americans.
The Chinese strategy for its own future theater of war is very similar. They would push to Taiwan and then try to deter the Americans from coming in with that strategy exactly.
So, the fact that this is the strategy and the weapons used, the weapon systems the Iranians used are very much Chinese, Russian, and Iranian copies of Chinese and Russian capabilities, with the same tactics and the same command-and-control methods, I think this really can benefit the Americans with a learning experience viewing a possible future conflict in the South China Sea. I'm sure the American team is taking notes.
RFE/RL: I guess the caveat would be that the Chinese armed forces operate on a significantly higher level in terms of the equipment they've got and the organization, than the Iranian.
Ortal: Absolutely. And surely the Chinese are (also) taking notes. And, surely, they must be thinking, well, they are so much better than the Iranians, as you've just put it. But, on the other hand, they're also thinking to themselves, “this is my equipment. This is my doctrine.”
I think they must reflect on the current events, especially in the context of their 2027 readiness year that they have declared, as a target, to be ready for a future conflict around the Taiwan straits and islands.
RFE/RL: If we can bring it back to this conflict, if it ends with Iran weakened, but without regime change, where does that leave the Middle East, the balance of power? Does it mean, X months down the line, there’s another war?
Ortal: For the removal of this regime, we can only create more comfortable conditions for the Iranians to exploit. Whether that happens or not, stripping Iran of its military capabilities, of its protection system, in our region is essential. It's essential not just to stabilize this region, it's essential also in the larger frame like, as I've said, a future possible war between the United States and China.
The Americans wouldn't want Iran at the southern flank of the Pacific in this kind of scenario. So, stripping Iran from its capabilities is a good thing.
There is a risk because a wounded beast, a wounded revenge-seeking beast in this region is a dangerous thing. But still we have created a window of years for this weakened Iran to be dealt with in the worst-case scenario.
What About Iranian Civilians?
RFE/RL: I want to bring it back to Iran for the final question. What would you say to people in Iran who have been protesting against their government, the clerical authorities? They've been risking their lives. They've been shot at. They've lost loved ones that way, perhaps. And now they are absolutely terrified by this Israeli and US campaign.
Ortal: What I've heard from Iran, what we can see from Iran is those very same people cheering on the rooftops, begging for the offensive to go on until this regime is gone. I don't think the United States and Israel can responsibly promise anything to these people. But surely the goal of this war is common to that group and to the allies fighting this war in Iranian skies.
Bombs falling is a very scary thing. But as you know, missiles fall on Israeli cities and towns and communities and in the Gulf, and they fall indiscriminately. Their purpose is to kill civilians.
The American and Israeli bombings in Iran specifically target very intelligence-acquired targets. Some mistakes can happen and some collateral damage always occurs in war.
I'm sure and I can see that those Iranians that you speak of realize that because we can see them walking in the streets, sending pictures of the Basij post-points in Tehran, and begging for those posts to become next-day targets.
- By RFE/RL
Iran Says Oil Exports Continue After Kharg Strikes As Fire Hits UAE Oil Hub
Drone and missile attacks struck targets in Baghdad and the United Arab Emirates on March 14 as the war between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition continued to ripple across the Middle East, while Tehran said oil exports from its key Kharg Island terminal were continuing despite US strikes there.
A drone hit the US Embassy compound in Baghdad early on March 14, Iraqi security officials said, while smoke rose from the Emirati port of Fujairah after debris from an intercepted drone sparked a fire near energy facilities.
Amid the regional spillover, Iranian state media reported that crude exports from Kharg Island -- Iran’s main oil terminal -- were continuing normally despite US air strikes.
Iran’s official news agency IRNA cited a senior provincial official as saying crude exports were flowing uninterrupted from the strategic island terminal despite US President Donald Trump’s claims that US forces had "totally obliterated" Iranian military targets there.
The strike on Kharg Island marked a major development in the conflict, which began on February 28 after large-scale US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
Trump said on the Truth Social platform that US forces had carried out "one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East," targeting military installations on the island while avoiding its vital oil export terminals.
The US Central Command later said its forces had struck more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island while preserving its oil infrastructure.
Kharg Island handles about 90 percent of Iran's crude exports, making it one of the most strategically sensitive energy facilities in the region.
Trump warned that restraint could end if Iran interferes with shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz. He also said the US Navy would soon begin escorting vessels through the strait.
The narrow waterway normally carries about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil supplies, but tanker traffic has largely halted since the conflict erupted.
Attacks Across The Middle East
At least 15 people were killed in a missile strike on a factory in Iran's central city of Isfahan on March 14, the Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported.
The agency blamed the attack on the United States and Israel and said the factory produced heaters and refrigerators. It added that workers were inside the facility during the strike.
The US and Israeli militaries did not immediately comment on the incident.
At the same time, despite facing superior US and Israeli military power, Iran has continued retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the Middle East targeting energy facilities and military installations, according to regional officials.
On March 14, both Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) and Iranian state media reported that new missile attacks were launched from Iran toward Israeli territory.
"The public is asked to act responsibly and follow the instructions -- they save lives," the IDF said in a statement published on Telegram.
Elsewhere, smoke was seen rising from the Emirati port of Fujairah after debris from an intercepted drone sparked a fire near energy installations. Authorities said civil defense crews were working to contain the blaze.
Some oil-loading operations at the port -- one of the world’s largest refueling hubs outside the Strait of Hormuz -- were reportedly suspended after the incident.
Iran's military had earlier warned residents in the United Arab Emirates to stay away from port areas, saying they could become targets.
Since the start of the war, Iranian strikes have targeted energy installations across the Persian Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
Hamas Urges Restraint
Meanwhile, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas issued a rare appeal urging Iran to refrain from targeting neighboring Gulf states, while backing what it called Tehran's right to defend itself against Israel and the United States.
"While affirming the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, the movement calls on the brothers in Iran to avoid targeting neighboring countries," Hamas said in a statement.
Hamas -- designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union -- also called on the international community to “work towards halting” the ongoing war immediately.
Missile Interceptions Across the Region
The conflict continues to spill across national borders.
A drone struck the US Embassy compound in Baghdad early on March 14, Iraqi security officials said, marking the second attack on the diplomatic mission since the war began.
Security officials said the drone hit a helicopter pad inside the heavily fortified embassy compound, though there were no immediate reports of casualties.
Explosions also rocked several other parts of Baghdad, with strikes targeting the Iran-allied Kataeb Hezbollah group, killing two members including a "key figure," security sources said.
It was not immediately clear who carried out the attacks.
Qatar said on March 14 that it intercepted two Iranian missiles over the capital, Doha, after explosions were heard in the city.
Turkey said NATO defenses intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran that briefly entered Turkish airspace.
Saudi Arabia reported shooting down dozens of drones launched toward the kingdom on March 13.
Energy Shock
The war has continued to disrupt energy supplies across the Middle East.
QatarEnergy has shut several liquefied natural gas facilities, leaving around 20 percent of global LNG supplies temporarily offline, according to industry estimates.
On March 14, Japan’s industry minister, Ryosei Akazawa, asked Australia to increase LNG production to stabilize global markets.
"Affordable and stable LNG supply from Australia is the lifeline of energy security in Japan and this region," Akazawa said.
Australia supplies about 40 percent of Japan's LNG imports.
Humanitarian Impact
Inside Iran, the humanitarian cost of the war appears to be mounting.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says the first two weeks of the war have resulted in at least 4,765 casualties, including deaths and injuries.
The figure includes 1,298 civilian fatalities, among them at least 205 children, and 654 civilians injured, according to the monitoring group.
HRANA said 5,480 attacks were recorded across Iran since February 28, affecting all 31 provinces and at least 209 cities.
The rights group said its figures represent minimum confirmed numbers and could rise as verification continues.
The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) estimates that about 3.2 million people have been displaced inside Iran since the conflict began.
Iranian authorities say at least 56 cultural and historic sites have also been damaged, including the UNESCO-listed Golestan Palace in Tehran and parts of Naghsh-e Jahan Square in Isfahan.
Despite intense bombardment, Iran’s leadership has signaled it intends to continue fighting.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, dpa, and AFP
- By Ray Furlong
In Israel's Medical Bunkers, Doctors Ready To Work 'Indefinitely'
TEL AVIV – After several twists down a concrete stairwell, a buzzing underground world is revealed. Ambulances unloading patients on gurneys, rows of field-hospital tents, workmen fixing overhead cables, and medical personnel in an array of uniforms.
This is the Sheba Medical Center, the largest hospital in the Middle East, with 11,000 employees, 1,700 doctors, and over 3,000 nurses. And most of it is functioning underground to stay out of reach of Iranian ballistic missiles.
“This place is not a field hospital. This is the hospital. It is just subterranean,” Yardena Koppel, a pediatric doctor, told RFE/RL.
Rattling off a list of departments that are, she said, fully functioning, Koppel added: “Each area is well-oiled and functions within itself. It's something really incredible, something I've never seen before.”
The hospital has moved some operations below ground in Israel’s previous conflicts, but never on such a scale. This location, two stories below ground, is just one of five containing hundreds of patients -- while some sections of the hospital are deemed well-protected enough to keep working in their usual places.
Lessons From Last Iran War
A hospital spokesman, who declined to be named, told RFE/RL that the 12-day Israeli-US war with Iran in June last year had been a key lesson. At that time, the hospital had two underground locations.
“After what happened in June, we realized that the missiles are much more dangerous, we started spreading even more,” he said, adding the whole move took about 36 hours. Plans to get ready appear to have begun before Israel launched surprise air strikes on Iran on February 28.
“When the military has an idea that something is in the works, they will tell us like a month in advance to start getting your act together,” the spokesman said.
Asked if this means that the hospital management knew military action was being prepared as early as the end of January, the spokesman would not be drawn.
“It wasn't a surprise to us. We saw the incremental...” he said, his answer tailing off, before adding: “Within a few moments that we knew that something was going to happen, we were told to move. Everything is done in military fashion. We have a list of who gets the priority, who goes down first.”
On a tour of the facilities, Koppel led us through pediatrics, adult oncology, ophthalmology, and cardiology. Patients lay screened from the bustle behind white curtains. On a monitor, a doctor examined a grainy image of a beating heart.
Koppel said the hospital has also had “war casualties.” This included two men who were badly injured by shrapnel a few days earlier.
“One of those patients had to have his chest opened, actually in this area, and unfortunately did not survive. The other patient is currently in ICU (also below ground) and is in critical condition,” she said.
“In this war, we have assumed that we are in this indefinitely and we simply cannot perform the procedures that we were doing above ground with the frequency of all the air raids with the same level of safety,” Koppel added.
In Israel, there are usually several alerts within each 24-hour period, occurring both day and night. Some 900 people have been injured in incidents related to the conflict since February 28, according to emergency services. Most were injured while making their way to shelters. Twelve civilians have died, along with two Israeli soldiers in Lebanon.
Israeli civilian casualties are relatively low thanks to the country’s advanced air defense capabilities and extensive network of shelters.
More Casualties In Iran
In Iran the death toll and the number of injured appear significantly higher, although getting a reliable picture is difficult.
US-based monitoring organization HRANA has counted nearly 1,300 civilian deaths in Iran. The Iranian authorities say more than 15,000 people have been injured, but this information cannot be independently confirmed.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says it has verified 18 attacks on health facilities in Iran since the beginning of US and Israeli air strikes.
"Blasts near the Motahari Hospital, in Iran’s capital, Tehran, reportedly damaged parts of the health facility and forced the evacuation of patients and health staff," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wrote on social media, also listing other health facilities reportedly struck.
“The United States and Israeli regime continue their massive attack against Iran and the Iranian people without pause, day and night,” Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravana, said in New York on March 10.
“They are deliberately and discriminately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure across my country,” he added, claiming 32 “medical and pharmaceutical facilities” had been hit.
RFE/RL is unable to do its own on-the-ground reporting from within Iran, because the authorities there don’t allow it to operate in the country.
US and Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that their forces exclusively target military and security infrastructure. However, US officials are investigating whether a US missile accidentally hit a school on February 28, killing at least 175 people, including 168 children, according to local officials.
- By Ray Furlong
Israel's Second War: The Fight Against Iran’s Proxy, Hezbollah
TEL AVIV -- As the US-Israeli war with Iran continues, a second front against Hezbollah has led to the displacement of some 800,000 people fleeing deadly Israeli air strikes in Lebanon, while a succession of rocket and drone attacks has rained down on Israel.
Hezbollah, regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States, is Iran’s strongest remaining proxy on Israel’s borders. It attacked Israel on March 2, after Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28.
The response by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been massive -- and the conflict with Hezbollah is an integral part of Israel’s wider war against Iran itself.
“The campaign against Iran was meant to deal with our very existence in the region, and Hezbollah is part of that,” Sarit Zehavi, head of Alma, a think tank based in northern Israel, told RFE/RL on March 13. “We are under constant attacks 24/7 here.”
Israel and Hezbollah have fought each other in several armed conflicts going back to the 1980s. Before the last conflict, which ended in 2024, Israel said the group had an arsenal of some 125,000-150,000 rockets – although estimates varied.
“When the war ended, the IDF itself said that they degraded the amount of rockets in the hands of Hezbollah by 80 percent. So, if you calculate, you will find out that they still had back then about 25,000 rockets,” said Zehavi, who worked in military intelligence during a 15-year IDF career.
“Now, there was an effort in the past year or so by Hezbollah to recover, either by smuggling or manufacturing in Lebanon, of different types of weapons, from anti-tank missiles, rockets, drones. Drones was the main effort,” she added.
The Israeli authorities see the war with Hezbollah in similar terms to the war with Iran: a unique opportunity to deliver a strategic defeat to a decades-long foe. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Lebanon’s government to disarm the group, warning on March 12 that it is “playing with fire” if it does not. A day later, Defense Minister Israel Katz followed up, saying the destruction of Lebanese infrastructure would be the “price” of not disarming Hezbollah.
A 'Disproportionate' Response
The same day, the World Health Organization (WHO) said some 630 people had been killed and 1,500 injured in Lebanon since the beginning of the latest fighting. Israel says many of these are “terrorists.” Israeli air strikes have caused huge explosions in Beirut and across the south of the country. It is also conducting limited ground operations and Netanyahu has hinted of a larger-scale ground incursion.
“Israel is not simply responding to Hezbollah attacks, that's certain. Its military campaign appears designed to eliminate Hezbollah as a political and social force entirely, not just disarm it,” Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told RFE/RL.
“This means deliberate displacement of an entire community…and disproportionate firepower resulting in indiscriminate harm to the civilian population,” added Sayigh, who was a negotiator in the Palestinian delegation to peace talks with Israel between 1991 and 2002.
Israeli demands that the Lebanese government take action against Hezbollah are not new, but this time Beirut’s response has broken new ground. On March 2, it declared the group’s military activities illegal -- an unprecedented step.
Israel is now demanding practical steps to follow through on this. Sayigh said this would not be easy for the Lebanese government. “It is under US pressure, in addition to constant Israeli military attacks, to take more direct action to disarm Hezbollah. But it fears that using force creates conditions for civil strife, if not civil war,” he said.
In a televised address on March 12, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stressed that he was hoping there might be scope for diplomacy.
"It is a war we did not want. On the contrary, we are working day and night to bring it to an end," he said. But neither Israel nor Hezbollah have indicated any intention to stop fighting for now.
What Comes Next
“Hezbollah’s strategy, likely in coordination with Iran, appears to be to inflict as much pain on Israel for as long as possible in the hope that a settlement is reached between the warring parties that essentially leaves the regime in Tehran in place,” wrote Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based defense and security consultant, on March 11.
Israeli media have been reporting for days now that a larger ground operation in Lebanon is coming soon. Analysts that RFE/RL spoke to said that it was not to be ruled out.
“The IDF has attacked more than 800 times in Lebanon. 800 attacks. This is what the IDF published yesterday. I don't know about today. That's a lot of targets,” said Zehavi. “And you see the damage. And they have a lot more [to target]. In order to create an impactful achievement, we will have to do a...military incursion.”
On March 8, Israel said two of its soldiers were killed in Lebanon in a Hezbollah attack -- the only IDF fatalities so far since February 28. Previous ground operations in Lebanon have involved many more Israeli military casualties.
“At the end, Hezbollah -- Lebanese, Arabic-speaking Shi’ites, are the locals. There's always an advantage in knowing the terrain,” Miri Eisin, a former deputy head of the Israeli military's Combat Intelligence Corps, told RFE/RL.
“We're going into a very challenging topographical area, a very hilly area. All of these factors are going to be a challenge. That doesn't mean you don't do it,” she added.
Whether there is an expanded ground war or not, many observers expect Hezbollah to be further weakened by the current conflict. Beirut-based analyst Sayigh said the Lebanese government’s new position on Hezbollah’s activities would have a long-term impact.
But the crucial factor may be the outcome of the war with Iran, which has bankrolled Hezbollah for decades and remains its paymaster. While Israel has continued to say the aim of the war is regime change in Tehran, the US position has placed greater emphasis on degrading Iran’s capabilities.
“Although weakened, Hezbollah's fate probably depends on how the Trump administration chooses to end its war with Iran -- some kind of deal could lead to an outcome in Lebanon that falls short of Israel's maximal aims,” said Sayigh.