ALMATY, Kazakhstan -- Presidential candidates in Kazakhstan may have shown voters that they can milk a horse, or even shoe one, but that doesn't mean there is more than one horse in this race.
Incumbent President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev faces five opponents that he is expected to easily beat in a November 20 snap leadership vote where a newly introduced seven-year term is up for grabs.
That Toqaev himself doesn't take their challenge seriously was evidenced by the fact that he sent a representative -- lower house speaker Yerlan Qoshanov -- to the only televised debate among candidates last week.
"The head of state fulfills his duties. He has quite a busy work schedule," Qoshanov said in an explanation of Toqaev's absence ahead of the November 11 debate, where he enjoyed an easy ride and heard no real criticism of his boss's policies from the quintet.
The president's combination of campaigning and "working trips" to the country's provinces, the lack of real competition, and the sense of an outcome already foretold were all hallmarks of votes under Toqaev's 82-year-old predecessor, authoritarian Nursultan Nazarbaev.
But having survived fatal unrest at the beginning of the year, Toqaev is openly calling for a break with the past, a fact that observers say makes these similarities all the more glaring.
"The optics of this old-style election in Toqaev's 'New Kazakhstan' are bad for a president trying to cast himself as a reformer," said Joanna Lillis, a Kazakhstan-based journalist covering her fifth presidential election and author of Dark Shadows: Inside The Secret World Of Kazakhstan.
"This was an opportunity for him to prove his professed commitment to democratization but instead he's chosen to micromanage the election just as Nazarbaev used to," Lillis told RFE/RL.
'Fear Is Bad Motivation'
When Toqaev called the snap election in September, he was not short of reasons.
First, there were the political shifts seen in the aftermath of what has come to be known as Bloody January -- New Year unrest that saw a security crackdown leave at least 238 people dead after peaceful protests over a fuel price hike evolved into wider, nationwide anti-government mobilizations.
Prior to the violence, Toqaev was widely seen as a president constrained by the ongoing influence of Nazarbaev, who hand-picked him as a successor.
LISTEN: Will Toqaev’s decision to have an early vote help resolve any of the issues plaguing Kazakhstan? Joining host Bruce Pannier to discuss the topic are Ben Godwin, the head of analysis at PRISM Political Risk Management who lived and worked in Kazakhstan for seven years and continues to track events there, and Darkhan Umirbekov, digital editor at RFE/RL’s Kazakh service in Astana.
But Nazarbaev and his relatives ceded powerful positions during the crisis that highlighted a split in the elite, with one of the strongman's nephews recently sentenced to six years imprisonment for embezzlement.
In the aftermath of the violence, Toqaev promised critical reforms and a break with the past, including an end to "oligarchical capitalism."
A referendum held in June stripped Nazarbaev of extensive constitutional privileges and tweaked the role of the executive, but the need for a fresh mandate was clear.
Then came Russia's war in Ukraine.
The unprovoked invasion and the subsequent Western-led sanctions leveled at one of landlocked Kazakhstan's closest trade partners have compounded socioeconomic problems that contributed to the January unrest.
And if that wasn't bad enough, Russian politicians and public figures close to the Kremlin have lined up to criticize Astana for its neutral position on the war, with some even threatening a Ukraine-style Russian intervention.
This year, a key pipeline that takes more than half of Kazakhstan's exports to Europe via a Russian port has been plagued by stoppages, with Russian authorities claiming technical and environmental pretexts.
Amid such external pressures "authorities fear they cannot even predict the future as far as a year or two years ahead," veteran analyst of Kazakh politics Dosym Satpaev told RFE/RL's Kazakh Service, calling rising inflation "the biggest threat" to the country.
But while this adds to the logic of holding early elections, "fear is a bad motivation," Satpaev argued in casting doubt over Toqaev's commitment to real change.
'The People Are Tired'
Regime nerves are perhaps most visible in terms of the identity of the other candidates -- three men and two women -- contesting the vote.
None has a record in opposition and all meet the strict legal criteria for candidates of having served in government for five or more years.
This makes the vote seemingly even less competitive than the one Toqaev won in 2019, months after Nazarbaev relinquished the presidency and ushered his then-loyal ally into the top job.
Back then, authorities took the unusual step of registering a politician with a history of confronting the government, former official-turned-critic Amirzhan Qosanov.
But rather than add legitimacy to a managed power transition, the concession backfired.
Qosanov campaigned half-heartedly, triggering public accusations of a backroom deal over the terms of his participation.
And while he was quick to concede the election, reports of violations at polling stations where a swell of independent monitors had carried out monitoring helped fuel a second day of protests that police struggled to reign in.
This time around, Qosanov ruled himself out of the race just weeks after suggesting he would compete, arguing it was necessary to avoid further bloodshed over results that could be disputed.
"The people are very tired. It's getting harder for them to make ends meet," Qosanov wrote in an article for the Kazakh media website Nege.kz that credited Toqaev with "good initiatives [that] aren't being fulfilled."
Milking The Horse
Toqaev's nominal rivals have been enjoying their time in the spotlight.
Saltanat Tursynbekova, a former civil servant of three decades standing, championed better animal rights protection during a campaign trail stop at a center for abandoned animals.
The ex-official described by pro-government media as a campaigner against domestic violence also praised Toqaev's gender policy at the outset of her presidential bid.
Qaraqat Abden, the other woman on the ballot and the author of a book called You're A Kazakh Girl, Be Proud, was shown by state media on October 30 milking a horse as she talked up her rural credentials.
Not to be outdone, footage appeared that same day of Zhiguli Dairabaev, nominee for the pro-government Auyl People's Democratic Patriotic Party, fitting a horseshoe to a horse's hoof.
Only one candidate self-identifies as opposition.
But Nurlan Auesbaev's vague criticism of corruption and oligarchy mirror those of Toqaev, who he has refrained from challenging directly.
Toqaev's own campaign pledge is to create a "just" or "fair" Kazakhstan, through people-oriented improvements to the police, judiciary, and civil service and increased social spending.
But Lillis, the journalist, argues that this election is more about "elite politics" than policy overhauls.
"There are many heavyweights who have much to lose in terms of power and assets with the dismantling of the Nazarbaev order," she said.
"Reelection will help secure Toqaev's power and send a message to revanchist forces that the game is up and he is in charge."
The build-up to the November 20 election has seen at least six opposition activists arrested and sentenced to short-term detention of up to 15 days, in what appears to be an attempt to prevent an election-day protest, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported.
Among them was Aset Abishev, whose arbitrary arrest and torture in January was widely covered by foreign media.
Speaking in Almaty on November 16, Toqaev praised the state's "brave and decisive response," and reiterated blame for "bandits" that he argues hijacked peaceful demonstrations to sow chaos.
But Toqaev, the career diplomat who ordered government troops to "shoot to kill" during the turmoil, also appeared to warn against further calls for demonstrations, noting that some people "deliberately shook up the situation in the country" on the eve of those events "by stirring protest sentiment."
