Middle East
- By Ray Furlong and
- Abubakar Siddique
Western Countries Face Dilemma Over Syria's Blacklisted New Rulers
With the dust still swirling after the dramatic collapse of the Syrian government, some Western governments have hinted that they may be open to working with emerging new rulers that they currently consider to be part of a terrorist organization.
Three key European capitals have all indicated that they could change their stance on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the blacklisted Islamist militant group that swept into Damascus on December 8.
This came after comments by U.S. President Joe Biden, reflecting on how the group’s rhetoric had changed as it sought to distance itself from its previous affiliation with Al-Qaeda: "As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”
President-elect Donald Trump's immediate response revealed little about how Syria policy might evolve on his watch, beyond stating simply that it is "not our fight." But his administration will also have to decide how to deal with Syria.
"I suspect there's going to be a lot of conversation about what kind of government HTS is going to form," said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.
"Maybe we will see some dynamics like we saw with Sudan, with sanctions relief in return for normalization with Israel. So, there are a lot of big questions on the horizon, and I'm not even sure HTS necessarily has the answers [at this stage]."
It is clear the group's position as a leading player in Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad presents Western governments with a dilemma. Previously a relatively minor armed group, controlling Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, it was easy to proscribe and largely ignore.
But HTS now appears too important for that, so Western governments seem to be carefully rowing back.
France’s acting foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told France Info radio on December 8 that HTS was "an Islamist movement” that must “demonstrate its sincere desire to rid the transition of extremism, Islamism, and jihadism." He added that an envoy would leave for Damascus this week.
Germany took a similarly equivocal line. Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said moves by HTS to distance itself from its past would be judged by its treatment of civilians and ethnic and religious minorities.
In Britain, Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden said a "swift decision" would need to be made about whether to remove HTS from the government's list of designated terrorist organizations.
It is not yet clear what role HTS will play in a post-Assad Syria. But if, as seems likely, it emerges as a key player, Western governments appear keen to keep their options open.
"I think the West should deal with the new reality on the ground," said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.
"They should put forward clear benchmarks for HTS, and if they meet them, they should reconsider their sanctions/designations that will only be an impediment to peace and security to post-Assad Syria."
This approach would differ to that taken toward Taliban-run Afghanistan. There, Western governments have kept their distance from an extremist group whose widespread human rights abuses and severe restrictions on women they have repeatedly condemned.
"I don't see HTS doing things like banning girls from going to school. I think they are more moderate than the Taliban," said U.S.-based analyst Ayub.
"HTS has a lot of questions to ask themselves, because fighting a war is very different than governing a country. And we saw, you know, the Taliban struggle to make this shift in Afghanistan. I still think there are a lot of open questions."
And even as Western governments appeared to shift cautiously on HTS, they have also made it clear that they take nothing on trust. Biden stressed that the group had its own "grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses."
They are also readying for a scenario in which a stable new government fails to emerge, and the threat of a resurgence by the Islamic State (IS) extremist group. On December 8, U.S. officials said warplanes carried out strikes on what they called 75 IS targets in Syria.
Another concern is stocks of chemical weapons held by the Assad government, and whose hands they might now fall into. Israel said it had struck facilities in connection with this.
The situation in Syria also has a potential impact on domestic politics in a number of countries. Millions of Syrians fled the country's devastating civil war that erupted in 2011, and questions are being asked about how many of them will wish -- or be able -- to return home.
Hundreds of them have formed lines on Syria's borders with Lebanon and Turkey. The presence of large Syrian refugee populations has been a source of tension in both countries, as it has been in Europe.
In Germany, it was announced that asylum decisions for Syrians would be frozen until the situation became clearer. A senior opposition figure called for financial incentives for Syrian refugees to return. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said it was "too soon" for such talk.
More News
- By RFE/RL
Iran Says Oil Exports Continue After Kharg Strikes As Fire Hits UAE Oil Hub
Drone and missile attacks struck targets in Baghdad and the United Arab Emirates on March 14 as the war between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition continued to ripple across the Middle East, while Tehran said oil exports from its key Kharg Island terminal were continuing despite US strikes there.
A drone hit the US Embassy compound in Baghdad early on March 14, Iraqi security officials said, while smoke rose from the Emirati port of Fujairah after debris from an intercepted drone sparked a fire near energy facilities.
Amid the regional spillover, Iranian state media reported that crude exports from Kharg Island -- Iran’s main oil terminal -- were continuing normally despite US air strikes.
Iran’s official news agency IRNA cited a senior provincial official as saying crude exports were flowing uninterrupted from the strategic island terminal despite US President Donald Trump’s claims that US forces had "totally obliterated" Iranian military targets there.
The strike on Kharg Island marked a major development in the conflict, which began on February 28 after large-scale US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
Trump said on the Truth Social platform that US forces had carried out "one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East," targeting military installations on the island while avoiding its vital oil export terminals.
The US Central Command later said its forces had struck more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island while preserving its oil infrastructure.
Kharg Island handles about 90 percent of Iran's crude exports, making it one of the most strategically sensitive energy facilities in the region.
Trump warned that restraint could end if Iran interferes with shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz. He also said the US Navy would soon begin escorting vessels through the strait.
The narrow waterway normally carries about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil supplies, but tanker traffic has largely halted since the conflict erupted.
Attacks Across The Middle East
At least 15 people were killed in a missile strike on a factory in Iran's central city of Isfahan on March 14, the Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported.
The agency blamed the attack on the United States and Israel and said the factory produced heaters and refrigerators. It added that workers were inside the facility during the strike.
The US and Israeli militaries did not immediately comment on the incident.
At the same time, despite facing superior US and Israeli military power, Iran has continued retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the Middle East targeting energy facilities and military installations, according to regional officials.
On March 14, both Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) and Iranian state media reported that new missile attacks were launched from Iran toward Israeli territory.
"The public is asked to act responsibly and follow the instructions -- they save lives," the IDF said in a statement published on Telegram.
Elsewhere, smoke was seen rising from the Emirati port of Fujairah after debris from an intercepted drone sparked a fire near energy installations. Authorities said civil defense crews were working to contain the blaze.
Some oil-loading operations at the port -- one of the world’s largest refueling hubs outside the Strait of Hormuz -- were reportedly suspended after the incident.
Iran's military had earlier warned residents in the United Arab Emirates to stay away from port areas, saying they could become targets.
Since the start of the war, Iranian strikes have targeted energy installations across the Persian Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
Hamas Urges Restraint
Meanwhile, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas issued a rare appeal urging Iran to refrain from targeting neighboring Gulf states, while backing what it called Tehran's right to defend itself against Israel and the United States.
"While affirming the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, the movement calls on the brothers in Iran to avoid targeting neighboring countries," Hamas said in a statement.
Hamas -- designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union -- also called on the international community to “work towards halting” the ongoing war immediately.
Missile Interceptions Across the Region
The conflict continues to spill across national borders.
A drone struck the US Embassy compound in Baghdad early on March 14, Iraqi security officials said, marking the second attack on the diplomatic mission since the war began.
Security officials said the drone hit a helicopter pad inside the heavily fortified embassy compound, though there were no immediate reports of casualties.
Explosions also rocked several other parts of Baghdad, with strikes targeting the Iran-allied Kataeb Hezbollah group, killing two members including a "key figure," security sources said.
It was not immediately clear who carried out the attacks.
Qatar said on March 14 that it intercepted two Iranian missiles over the capital, Doha, after explosions were heard in the city.
Turkey said NATO defenses intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran that briefly entered Turkish airspace.
Saudi Arabia reported shooting down dozens of drones launched toward the kingdom on March 13.
Energy Shock
The war has continued to disrupt energy supplies across the Middle East.
QatarEnergy has shut several liquefied natural gas facilities, leaving around 20 percent of global LNG supplies temporarily offline, according to industry estimates.
On March 14, Japan’s industry minister, Ryosei Akazawa, asked Australia to increase LNG production to stabilize global markets.
"Affordable and stable LNG supply from Australia is the lifeline of energy security in Japan and this region," Akazawa said.
Australia supplies about 40 percent of Japan's LNG imports.
Humanitarian Impact
Inside Iran, the humanitarian cost of the war appears to be mounting.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says the first two weeks of the war have resulted in at least 4,765 casualties, including deaths and injuries.
The figure includes 1,298 civilian fatalities, among them at least 205 children, and 654 civilians injured, according to the monitoring group.
HRANA said 5,480 attacks were recorded across Iran since February 28, affecting all 31 provinces and at least 209 cities.
The rights group said its figures represent minimum confirmed numbers and could rise as verification continues.
The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) estimates that about 3.2 million people have been displaced inside Iran since the conflict began.
Iranian authorities say at least 56 cultural and historic sites have also been damaged, including the UNESCO-listed Golestan Palace in Tehran and parts of Naghsh-e Jahan Square in Isfahan.
Despite intense bombardment, Iran’s leadership has signaled it intends to continue fighting.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, dpa, and AFP
- By Ray Furlong
In Israel's Medical Bunkers, Doctors Ready To Work 'Indefinitely'
TEL AVIV – After several twists down a concrete stairwell, a buzzing underground world is revealed. Ambulances unloading patients on gurneys, rows of field-hospital tents, workmen fixing overhead cables, and medical personnel in an array of uniforms.
This is the Sheba Medical Center, the largest hospital in the Middle East, with 11,000 employees, 1,700 doctors, and over 3,000 nurses. And most of it is functioning underground to stay out of reach of Iranian ballistic missiles.
“This place is not a field hospital. This is the hospital. It is just subterranean,” Yardena Koppel, a pediatric doctor, told RFE/RL.
Rattling off a list of departments that are, she said, fully functioning, Koppel added: “Each area is well-oiled and functions within itself. It's something really incredible, something I've never seen before.”
The hospital has moved some operations below ground in Israel’s previous conflicts, but never on such a scale. This location, two stories below ground, is just one of five containing hundreds of patients -- while some sections of the hospital are deemed well-protected enough to keep working in their usual places.
Lessons From Last Iran War
A hospital spokesman, who declined to be named, told RFE/RL that the 12-day Israeli-US war with Iran in June last year had been a key lesson. At that time, the hospital had two underground locations.
“After what happened in June, we realized that the missiles are much more dangerous, we started spreading even more,” he said, adding the whole move took about 36 hours. Plans to get ready appear to have begun before Israel launched surprise air strikes on Iran on February 28.
“When the military has an idea that something is in the works, they will tell us like a month in advance to start getting your act together,” the spokesman said.
Asked if this means that the hospital management knew military action was being prepared as early as the end of January, the spokesman would not be drawn.
“It wasn't a surprise to us. We saw the incremental...” he said, his answer tailing off, before adding: “Within a few moments that we knew that something was going to happen, we were told to move. Everything is done in military fashion. We have a list of who gets the priority, who goes down first.”
On a tour of the facilities, Koppel led us through pediatrics, adult oncology, ophthalmology, and cardiology. Patients lay screened from the bustle behind white curtains. On a monitor, a doctor examined a grainy image of a beating heart.
Koppel said the hospital has also had “war casualties.” This included two men who were badly injured by shrapnel a few days earlier.
“One of those patients had to have his chest opened, actually in this area, and unfortunately did not survive. The other patient is currently in ICU (also below ground) and is in critical condition,” she said.
“In this war, we have assumed that we are in this indefinitely and we simply cannot perform the procedures that we were doing above ground with the frequency of all the air raids with the same level of safety,” Koppel added.
In Israel, there are usually several alerts within each 24-hour period, occurring both day and night. Some 900 people have been injured in incidents related to the conflict since February 28, according to emergency services. Most were injured while making their way to shelters. Twelve civilians have died, along with two Israeli soldiers in Lebanon.
Israeli civilian casualties are relatively low thanks to the country’s advanced air defense capabilities and extensive network of shelters.
More Casualties In Iran
In Iran the death toll and the number of injured appear significantly higher, although getting a reliable picture is difficult.
US-based monitoring organization HRANA has counted nearly 1,300 civilian deaths in Iran. The Iranian authorities say more than 15,000 people have been injured, but this information cannot be independently confirmed.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says it has verified 18 attacks on health facilities in Iran since the beginning of US and Israeli air strikes.
"Blasts near the Motahari Hospital, in Iran’s capital, Tehran, reportedly damaged parts of the health facility and forced the evacuation of patients and health staff," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wrote on social media, also listing other health facilities reportedly struck.
“The United States and Israeli regime continue their massive attack against Iran and the Iranian people without pause, day and night,” Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravana, said in New York on March 10.
“They are deliberately and discriminately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure across my country,” he added, claiming 32 “medical and pharmaceutical facilities” had been hit.
RFE/RL is unable to do its own on-the-ground reporting from within Iran, because the authorities there don’t allow it to operate in the country.
US and Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that their forces exclusively target military and security infrastructure. However, US officials are investigating whether a US missile accidentally hit a school on February 28, killing at least 175 people, including 168 children, according to local officials.
- By Ray Furlong
Israel's Second War: The Fight Against Iran’s Proxy, Hezbollah
TEL AVIV -- As the US-Israeli war with Iran continues, a second front against Hezbollah has led to the displacement of some 800,000 people fleeing deadly Israeli air strikes in Lebanon, while a succession of rocket and drone attacks has rained down on Israel.
Hezbollah, regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States, is Iran’s strongest remaining proxy on Israel’s borders. It attacked Israel on March 2, after Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28.
The response by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been massive -- and the conflict with Hezbollah is an integral part of Israel’s wider war against Iran itself.
“The campaign against Iran was meant to deal with our very existence in the region, and Hezbollah is part of that,” Sarit Zehavi, head of Alma, a think tank based in northern Israel, told RFE/RL on March 13. “We are under constant attacks 24/7 here.”
Israel and Hezbollah have fought each other in several armed conflicts going back to the 1980s. Before the last conflict, which ended in 2024, Israel said the group had an arsenal of some 125,000-150,000 rockets – although estimates varied.
“When the war ended, the IDF itself said that they degraded the amount of rockets in the hands of Hezbollah by 80 percent. So, if you calculate, you will find out that they still had back then about 25,000 rockets,” said Zehavi, who worked in military intelligence during a 15-year IDF career.
“Now, there was an effort in the past year or so by Hezbollah to recover, either by smuggling or manufacturing in Lebanon, of different types of weapons, from anti-tank missiles, rockets, drones. Drones was the main effort,” she added.
The Israeli authorities see the war with Hezbollah in similar terms to the war with Iran: a unique opportunity to deliver a strategic defeat to a decades-long foe. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Lebanon’s government to disarm the group, warning on March 12 that it is “playing with fire” if it does not. A day later, Defense Minister Israel Katz followed up, saying the destruction of Lebanese infrastructure would be the “price” of not disarming Hezbollah.
A 'Disproportionate' Response
The same day, the World Health Organization (WHO) said some 630 people had been killed and 1,500 injured in Lebanon since the beginning of the latest fighting. Israel says many of these are “terrorists.” Israeli air strikes have caused huge explosions in Beirut and across the south of the country. It is also conducting limited ground operations and Netanyahu has hinted of a larger-scale ground incursion.
“Israel is not simply responding to Hezbollah attacks, that's certain. Its military campaign appears designed to eliminate Hezbollah as a political and social force entirely, not just disarm it,” Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told RFE/RL.
“This means deliberate displacement of an entire community…and disproportionate firepower resulting in indiscriminate harm to the civilian population,” added Sayigh, who was a negotiator in the Palestinian delegation to peace talks with Israel between 1991 and 2002.
Israeli demands that the Lebanese government take action against Hezbollah are not new, but this time Beirut’s response has broken new ground. On March 2, it declared the group’s military activities illegal -- an unprecedented step.
Israel is now demanding practical steps to follow through on this. Sayigh said this would not be easy for the Lebanese government. “It is under US pressure, in addition to constant Israeli military attacks, to take more direct action to disarm Hezbollah. But it fears that using force creates conditions for civil strife, if not civil war,” he said.
In a televised address on March 12, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stressed that he was hoping there might be scope for diplomacy.
"It is a war we did not want. On the contrary, we are working day and night to bring it to an end," he said. But neither Israel nor Hezbollah have indicated any intention to stop fighting for now.
What Comes Next
“Hezbollah’s strategy, likely in coordination with Iran, appears to be to inflict as much pain on Israel for as long as possible in the hope that a settlement is reached between the warring parties that essentially leaves the regime in Tehran in place,” wrote Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based defense and security consultant, on March 11.
Israeli media have been reporting for days now that a larger ground operation in Lebanon is coming soon. Analysts that RFE/RL spoke to said that it was not to be ruled out.
“The IDF has attacked more than 800 times in Lebanon. 800 attacks. This is what the IDF published yesterday. I don't know about today. That's a lot of targets,” said Zehavi. “And you see the damage. And they have a lot more [to target]. In order to create an impactful achievement, we will have to do a...military incursion.”
On March 8, Israel said two of its soldiers were killed in Lebanon in a Hezbollah attack -- the only IDF fatalities so far since February 28. Previous ground operations in Lebanon have involved many more Israeli military casualties.
“At the end, Hezbollah -- Lebanese, Arabic-speaking Shi’ites, are the locals. There's always an advantage in knowing the terrain,” Miri Eisin, a former deputy head of the Israeli military's Combat Intelligence Corps, told RFE/RL.
“We're going into a very challenging topographical area, a very hilly area. All of these factors are going to be a challenge. That doesn't mean you don't do it,” she added.
Whether there is an expanded ground war or not, many observers expect Hezbollah to be further weakened by the current conflict. Beirut-based analyst Sayigh said the Lebanese government’s new position on Hezbollah’s activities would have a long-term impact.
But the crucial factor may be the outcome of the war with Iran, which has bankrolled Hezbollah for decades and remains its paymaster. While Israel has continued to say the aim of the war is regime change in Tehran, the US position has placed greater emphasis on degrading Iran’s capabilities.
“Although weakened, Hezbollah's fate probably depends on how the Trump administration chooses to end its war with Iran -- some kind of deal could lead to an outcome in Lebanon that falls short of Israel's maximal aims,” said Sayigh.
- By Nastasia Arabuli and
- Ulviyya Asadzade
Investigation Highlights Iran's Growing Religious Footprint In Georgia
Georgia’s State Security Service has launched an investigation into claims that Iran is expanding its influence in the country through Georgian Shi'ite communities, growing concerns about Tehran’s religious and political outreach in the South Caucasus country.
The probe follows a report by the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank, and public statements by opposition politicians alleging Iran has been building networks of influence in Georgia, particularly among ethnic Azerbaijani Shi’ite communities in the southeastern Kvemo Kartli region.
It also comes at a time when Georgia’s foreign policy orientation has become increasingly contested. Once Washington’s closest ally in the South Caucasus, Georgia, under its current government, has increasingly distanced itself from the West while strengthening ties with Russia, China, and Iran.
Iran's intent, according to the Hudson Institute report published March 4, is to "groom the next generation of Georgian Shi'ite leaders, foster loyalty to Iran's political theology, and normalize anti-American narratives."
US Representative Joe Wilson of South Carolina, citing a Hudson Institute statement, accused Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party of being "anti-American," alleging ties with Iran and attempts to silence experts exposing the influence.
Economic ties between Georgia and Iran have also drawn scrutiny.
Nearly 13,000 Iranian-linked companies are registered in Georgia, many associated with only a handful of addresses -- a pattern analysts say raises concerns about possible sanctions evasion.
Some investigators say Iranian firms may be using Georgia as a transit point to bypass international restrictions, with certain companies reportedly linked to Iran’s armed forces.
Georgia’s State Security Service told RFE/RL the claims about Iran’s outreach contradict available evidence and said authorities are examining the motivations behind the accusations.
Speaking to journalists, Tbilisi Mayor Kakhi Kaladze -- a top official in the ruling Georgian Dream party -- accused former Defense Minister Tina Khidasheli of committing a “traitorous act” for recent statements on the issue.
Kaladze also lashed out at former MP Giorgi Kandelaki, and co-author of the Hudson Institute report titled “Georgia’s Iranian Turn: Tehran’s Rapid Expansion of Influence in a Once-Committed US Ally.”
The Hudson Institute said in a statement that it condemned the government’s investigation into the authors of the report, which it said should serve as a wake-up call for Georgian authorities.
"This report should serve as a wake-up call -- especially at a time when Iran serves as a destabilizing force in the region," John Waters, the think tank’s president, said in a statement on March 9.
"Rather than investigating the authors of the report, Georgian authorities should be concerned by its findings, which rely overwhelmingly on publicly accessible information that the authorities should already be aware of," he added.
Shi’ite activism in Georgia dates back to the late 1980s when Soviet borders opened and Muslim populations in the Soviet republics began reconnecting with religious institutions abroad, according to Aleksandre Kvakhadze, a researcher specializing in the Caucasus and terrorism at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS).
“Amid tightened religious policies in Azerbaijan, Georgia offered a much freer environment with fewer restrictions, allowing Shi’ite groups to extend their influence more widely,” she said.
Much of the focus of public debate in Georgia has centered on activities linked to Al-Mustafa International University, a global network of Shi’ite seminaries headquartered in the Iranian city of Qom.
The institution was sanctioned by the United States last year amid allegations that it recruited Afghan and Pakistani students to fight in the Syrian conflict.
The university operates in several Georgian cities with large Azerbaijani populations.
RFE/RL was unable to trace the full network of the university’s alumni in Georgia, though some former students are believed by analysts to work as mosque leaders, lecturers, or cultural activists.
“Among the Shi'a in Georgia, there is sympathy for Iran. It would not be objective to deny that,” Oktay Kazimov, a former teacher at Al-Mustafa, told RFE/RL.
The issue has taken on extra life with the launching of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran.
Many Iranian Shi'a have reacted sharply to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the initial wave of air strikes on February 28.
Khamenei’s death prompted a group of demonstrators to gather in front of the Iranian Embassy in Tbilisi, holding images of the slain leader and chanting: “I am ready to carry out your order.”
Irakli Kobakhidze, head of the Georgian Dream government, who is known for his anti-Western statements, compared the gathering to ongoing pro-European demonstrations outside the Georgian parliament.
“A hundred people gather in front of the Parliament of Georgia and make statements against the Georgian state. All of this needs to be managed,” he said.
Public displays of pro-Iranian sentiment have also appeared in parts of Kvemo Kartli, a region south of Tbilisi bordering Azerbaijan and Armenia and home to much of Georgia’s ethnic Azerbaijani population.
“Iranians have long been present in Kvemo Kartli, but under the Georgian Dream their presence has grown and become more visible,” Georgian political analyst Giorgi Sanikadze told RFE/RL.
The pulse of Georgia’s Shi’ite community can often be taken at the Imam Reza Mosque in the city of Marneuli. The mosque is a major Shi'ite religious site and community hub for the local Azerbaijani population.
Orchestrating Violence
The mosque made headlines in February when it issued a statement accusing the United States and its Western allies of orchestrating violence across the Middle East. It blamed Washington and Israel for conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Afghanistan, and Yemen, while describing those killed in recent protests in Iran as “rebels against the Islamic order.”
“I can also see Iranian influence increasing in Kvemo Kartli among Azerbaijanis, but it is not as high as some Georgian politicians and civil-society leaders claim. It is limited to a small group of people,” Rabil Ismail, a civic activist from Kvemo Kartli, told RFE/RL.
“At the same time, I see hate speech against Azerbaijanis increasing on social media. This is a sensitive issue and could harm peace among Georgia’s communities. As a community, we do not want any country -- including Iran --interfering in Kvemo Kartli,” he added.
Recent security incidents have also drawn attention to possible Iranian-linked activities connected to Georgia.
On March 2, Greek police detained a 36-year-old Georgian citizen at Athens airport on suspicion of spying for Iran. While authorities have released few details, a Georgian media outlet reported that the suspect is an ethnic Azerbaijani from Georgia. RFE/RL’s Georgian Service could not verify the claim.
Experts also look back to last year when Georgian-born crime boss Polad Omarov was found guilty of participating in a 2022 plot to assassinate US-based Iranian journalist Masih Alinejad in New York.
RFE/RL’s Georgian Service has reported that Omarov is ethnic Azerbaijani.
- By Ray Furlong and
- RFE/RL
Israeli President Calls For 'Hitting Iran Hard' As Attacks Continue On Both Sides
The exchange of fire between Iran and Israel continued on March 12, with strikes hitting civilian sites in central Israel as its military claimed to have targeted Basij militia checkpoints in Tehran. Speaking to RFE/RL, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said his country aims to keep up the intense campaign to "remove [Iran's] capabilities" to wage war.
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran's Navy Is Largely Gone. The Threat To The Strait Of Hormuz Is Not.
The United States and Israel have largely destroyed Iran's conventional naval fleet in a massive bombing campaign since February 28.
But Tehran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping routes, has not diminished. Iran has effectively closed the narrow waterway, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flow, by using asymmetric warfare tactics.
Besides Iran's conventional navy, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces, has its own naval units that continue to hound and attack shipping in the Persian Gulf.
"While I think the Iranian Navy is largely combat ineffective at this point, the IRGC navy remains able to harass shipping," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"That maintains a specter of danger that most civilian shipping lines and insurers will find unacceptable," Bruchmann added.
Decimated Navy
The United States has decimated Iran's conventional navy since February 28.
The US military said on March 11 that it had sunk 60 Iranian vessels. Satellite imagery and publicly disclosed military footage suggest most of Iran's naval fleet has been damaged or destroyed.
Iran's two Mowj-class warships, its Alvand-class frigate Sabalan, and the forward-basing ship Makran -- which gave Tehran a limited long-range power projection capability -- are gone. So, too, are hundreds of the fast-attack boats that formed the backbone of the IRGC's naval asymmetric strategy in the Persian Gulf.
On March 4, a US submarine torpedoed Iran's IRIS Dena warship in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka as the frigate returned from multinational exercises, with roughly 180 personnel onboard.
It was the first confirmed wartime submarine sinking of a surface warship since Britain sank the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano in 1982 during the Falklands War, highlighting the reach and intent of the American campaign.
But those losses have not reduced Iran's threat to shipping in the Persian Gulf, experts say.
Iranian projectiles struck the Mayuree Naree, a Thai-flagged civilian tanker, on March 11 while it attempted to transit the strait. Photographs from the crew's evacuation showed damage just above the waterline near the stern, a typical signature of explosive-laden surface drones that strike at waterline level.
Iran's Naval Doctrine
Iran changed its naval doctrine after the US Navy sank around half of Iran's conventional fleet in a single day in April 1988. The attack was in retaliation for the mining of a US warship days earlier.
Experts say the incident showed Tehran that symmetrical naval warfare against a superpower was a losing proposition.
What followed was a decades-long pivot toward asymmetric tools such as fast-attack boats, shore-based anti-ship missiles, naval mines, midget submarines, and more recently, unmanned surface vessels (USVs) configured as floating bombs.
Iran institutionalized this split into two separate navies, symmetrical and asymmetrical forces.
The Iranian Navy, as part of the regular military, maintained a conventional fleet for prestige and occasional long-range deployments, including a transatlantic voyage as recently as 2021.
But the real warfighting instrument was the IRGC's navy units, which were purpose-built for harassment and denial operations in the Persian Gulf's shallow, island-cluttered waters, where geography compresses distances and partly neutralizes the advantages of a superior conventional force.
Over the years, the IRGC's naval force has released footage of underground storage facilities housing fast-attack boats, some likely configured as unmanned surface vessels or suicide boats.
It is a tactic used by Ukraine against the Russia's Black Sea Fleet, although experts say the Iranian variants are less technically sophisticated.
"I doubt they could inflict the same kind of damage on US warships that Ukraine could on Russian ships," Bruchmann said, adding the more plausible target is civilian shipping that supplies global oil markets.
US Central Command said on March 10 that it had sunk 16 Iranian mine-laying ships.
But Mohammad Farsi, a former Iranian naval officer, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the focus on mines misses the point.
"Any vessel can do it, even the IRGC speedboats currently in the Persian Gulf," he said.
"In my opinion as a naval officer, there is no need for Iran to plant mines in the mouth of the Persian Gulf right now. The reason ships aren't passing through is that companies know the probability of being hit is extremely high."
He pointed to Iranian drone capabilities near the islands of Qeshm, Hengam, and Larak -- positioned close to the main shipping lanes -- as the more immediate threat.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Kian Sharifi
Iran To Keep Strait Of Hormuz Closed, Supreme Leader Khamenei Says In First Public Comments
Iran must continue to keep a key Gulf shipping lane closed, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first public comments since being named to succeed his late father, hours after several vessels were targeted in strikes as Tehran looks to choke off oil supplies from leaving the Middle East.
In the statement, which was read out on Iranian state TV by a female presenter on March 12, Khamenei said Iran will continue to seek to strike targets where "the enemy has little experience and will be severely vulnerable."
In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed the continuation of the US-Israeli military campaign against Tehran and threatened the newly appointed Iranian leader.
"I wouldn't issue life insurance policies on any of the leaders of the terrorist organization," Netanyahu said in his first news conference since the beginning of the war, adding that he wouldn't provide any details on Tel Aviv's military plans.
However, he confirmed that, besides the main military goals -- to stop Iran from moving its nuclear and ballistic weapons projects underground -- Israel was also aimed at "creating, for the Iranian people, the conditions to bring down this regime."
Iran has been launching air and water strikes at targets across the Middle East in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks that started on February 28, the day his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in one such bombardment.
The younger Khamenei was reportedly injured in that attack and had not been seen or heard from since. He was appointed as supreme leader on March 8.
In targeting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has tied up shipping on a waterway that accounts for around a fifth of all oil and gas transportation in the world.
Two tankers were ablaze in a port in the Persian Gulf on March 12 after they were hit by what are suspected to have been Iranian explosive-laden vessels, an escalation in attacks that have choked much of the oil leaving the Middle East and defying US President Donald Trump's claim a day earlier that the United States has "won" the war, which he said now just needs finishing.
Oil prices surged more than 9 percent to above $100 a barrel after the reports of further attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, in what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in history.
Khamenei said Iran would "extract reparations" from those states that attack it, and if that is not possible, "We will destroy an equivalent amount of their assets."
In a bid to quell market jitters, Trump has said the surge in oil prices will be short-lived, but he has yet to explain how the war will end or present a plan to reopen the blockaded strait.
"You never like to say too early you won. We won," Trump told a campaign-style rally in Hebron, Kentucky, on March 11. "In the first hour it was over."
While the US and Israeli air attacks had "virtually destroyed Iran," he added that "we got to finish the job."
Trump has said the US Navy may be brought in to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC in an interview on March 12 that it may take several more weeks before that is possible.
"It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now," Wright said in the March 12 interview. "We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities."
In comments to Sky News the same day, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was always his belief "that as soon as it is militarily possible, the US Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, will be escorting vessels through" the strait.
- By Frud Bezhan
US-Israeli Bombing Of Iran's Energy Infrastructure Marks New Escalation In War
The United States and Israel are bombing Iran's critical energy and civilian infrastructure, marking an escalation in the military campaign against the Islamic republic, experts say.
Israel has struck at least four oil depots around Tehran, Iran's sprawling capital, since the joint US-Israeli air campaign began on February 28. Other civilian infrastructure, including a commercial airport and a water treatment plant, has also been hit.
"The aim of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran's economic and energy infrastructure is not primarily economic," said Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "It is strategic. The objective is to weaken Iran to the point of regime collapse or state fragmentation."
Iran has also targeted critical energy facilities and civilian infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, which has wreaked havoc and sent global energy prices soaring. Tehran's strategy, experts say, is to raise the economic costs of the war for the United States and its allies in the region.
The United States has rejected Tehran's accusation that it is deliberately targeting Iran's civilian infrastructure. Washington has attempted to distance itself from the Israeli attacks on Iran's petroleum facilities. But experts warn that the attacks could trigger a costly tit-for-tat cycle of retaliation.
"The most likely consequence is escalation," said Hanke, a former economic adviser to the administration of US President Ronald Reagan. "Iran's strategy is deterrence. It cannot match US-Israeli firepower, but it can raise the cost of the war. That means retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure and other economic targets across the region are certain."
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned on March 10 that Iran will take "an eye for an eye" approach. If Iranian infrastructure is targeted, he said, Tehran will respond in kind, with experts suggesting the infrastructure war could expand.
'Economic Warfare'
Israeli warplanes hit four oil storage facilities and a fuel logistics site in and around Tehran on March 8. The installations served the approximately 10 million people living in the city.
Tehran was draped in toxic black smoke for days as the oil facilities burned. The authorities issued urgent health warnings and experts warned of an environmental disaster.
The attacks triggered outrage among some Iranians. Axios reported on March 10 that the Trump administration asked Israel not to carry out further strikes on energy facilities in Iran, particularly oil infrastructure.
The repercussions of Israel's attacks are "potential shortages for fuel and gasoline, which could have ripple effects by causing food shortages, inflation, and power blackouts" in Iran, said Sina Azodi, an expert of Iran's military and history and an assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University.
The heavy US-Israel bombardment has also damaged or destroyed seaports and commercial airports, including Tehran's Mehrabad International Airport, one of two that serve the capital. Israeli air strikes on March 7 set the Tehran airport on fire.
On the same day, Iran accused the United States of attacking a desalination plant on the island of Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. CENTCOM spokesperson US Navy Captain Tim Hawkins rejected the accusation and said, "US forces do not target civilians -- period."
Tehran hit a water treatment plant in Bahrain the following day.
On March 10, US-Israeli air strikes struck Tehran's Resalat highway, one of the biggest in the city. The attack "resulted in the killing and injury of a large number of civilians," according to US-based rights group HRANA .
Over 1,200 civilians have been killed in Iran since the war began, according to HRANA. Homes, public buildings, and cultural sites have been damaged or destroyed in the aerial bombardment, angering some Iranians.
Azadi said Iran, the United States, and Israel were engaged in "economic warfare." The US-Israeli aim, he said, was to "break the morale of the Iranian population by punishing them and making their lives harder."
"They also aim to weaken and diminish Iran's economic output to stop it from being able to reinvest in its defense infrastructure," he said.
As part of that aim, experts said, the United States could attempt to seize or target the oil terminals in Iran's Kharg Island , which handles around 90 percent of all Iranian oil exports, in a move that could cut off the revenues that sustain Tehran's sanctions-hit economy.
US media reports say the Trump administration has discussed capturing the tiny island in the Persian Gulf.
Azodi said Iran will try to intensify the infrastructure war "as much as it can, given its vulnerabilities and military weakness compared to the US and Israel."
"Both sides will continue to escalate with the aim of forcing the other side to ‘say uncle' first," he added.
Georgian Sailors Survive Iranian Attack On Ship Off Iraqi Coast
All 23 Georgian crew members aboard a Malta-flagged tanker struck by Iran off the Iraqi coast have been rescued, a relative of one of the sailors told RFE/RL's Georgian Service.
Two oil tankers sailing in Iraqi territorial waters were struck in the Persian Gulf early on March 12, with sailors describing a coordinated attack involving drones and explosive devices.
Iranian state television confirmed that Iranian forces had attacked the tankers, reporting that at least one vessel was hit by an Iranian unmanned vehicle from the water.
One of the targeted ships was the Malta-flagged tanker Zefyros, which included the 23 Georgian sailors, while the second vessel that was hit, Safesea Vishnu, was sailing under a Marshall Islands flag and was chartered by an Iraqi company, according to the Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO).
"I spoke with him around midnight and everything was fine," Nincho Surmanidze, the wife of Georgian sailor Irakli Jashi, told RFE/RL. "Then he called me again around 2:30 a.m. and quickly said: 'We're all OK, everyone survived.'"
Later in the morning, she said, her husband told her a drone had struck their tanker, triggering a fire that heavily damaged the vessel.
"He said everything burned," Surmanidze added.
According to Iraqi authorities, 38 sailors were rescued from the tankers targeted in the attack and were transported to an Iraqi port.
At least one sailor was killed, Iraqi officials said, though the victim's identity and nationality have not been disclosed.
Surmanidze said her husband had been working aboard the vessel for about six months and had been scheduled to return to Georgia on March 10 before the ship was delayed due to the conflict in the Middle East.
"If there had been no war in the region, he would have already been home," she said.
The attack occurred amid rising tensions across the region as Iran retaliates for ongoing US and Israeli air strikes.
Much of Tehran's campaign appears aimed at disrupting global energy markets, especially hitting targets around the Gulf, including vessels, raising security risks for commercial shipping routes that are vital to the oil and gas industries.
Some analysts say the reported use of drones, remotely detonated explosives, and unmanned vehicles in the water suggests a sophisticated maritime strike designed to damage tankers while limiting direct confrontation.
Officials at Georgia's Maritime Transport Agency and the Foreign Ministry were not available to comment when contacted by RFE/RL's Georgian Service, saying information about the incident would be released later.
- By Ray Furlong
Interview: Amid Ongoing Public Absence, Is Iran's New Leader In Control?
TEL AVIV -- Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is probably in charge despite making no public appearance since being appointed on March 8 and amid reports that he was injured in an air strike, according to a leading Israeli expert on Iran.
Speaking to RFE/RL in Tel Aviv on March 11, Raz Zimmt, who is head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies, said the question was whether Khamenei would be capable of maintaining "daily contacts with the political and security establishment" to preserve "the ability of the regime to function."
RFE/RL: What's your assessment of where we are now in the war?
Raz Zimmt: It's very clear that both Israel and the United States have achieved very significant military achievements in their attempts to degrade as much as possible Iran's strategic capabilities.
If you look at the ballistic missiles capacities, if you look at the aerial defense system, even some of the remains of the nuclear program in Iran, and certainly the attempts to undermine or to degrade Iran's security forces, the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guards [Corps], the Basij, the Iranian Navy, all is going quite well.
The question is whether those achievements will allow to achieve the main objectives, which are, in my view: one, to degrade Iran's strategic capabilities to a point where it's going to be very difficult to reconstitute its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles, just as it tried to do after the 12-day war in June.
And then the second objective would be to weaken and undermine the Iranian regime.
RFE/RL: OK, let's take those one at a time, starting with the effective degradation of Iran's military and security capabilities.
Zimmt: When it comes to the missiles, during the 12-day war in June, Israel managed to destroy a lot of the launchers and then to block the entrances and the exits to the so-called underground compounds used to store them.
If that happens again, it won't make any real difference because at the end of the day Iran will be able to restore the production of its missiles -- unless the United States is capable of targeting and hitting the underground compounds and, more importantly, to hit the production lines.
Concerning the nuclear issue, if the war ends with 450 kilograms of enriched uranium to 60 percent (eds: estimates of how much Iran has vary; this figure was given by US envoy Steve Witkoff), if this fissile material still is left in Iran, it's going to be a very disturbing development because Iran can still have the technical know-how and the capability to break out [and develop nuclear weapons].
RFE/RL: Let's just look at the new leadership emerging in Iran. There's still no sign of Khamenei Jr.
Zimmt: Right. There were some reports that he was actually injured during the first hours of the attack, but he was nominated by the Assembly of Experts, so we should assume he's capable of fulfilling his task, at least.
RFE/RL: So you wouldn't read too much into the fact that we haven't seen him anywhere?
Zimmt: No, it's very obvious that the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. They know very clearly that Mojtaba Khamenei might become the next target by either Israel or the United States, and so he should hide. The question in my view is whether he's capable of reaching out and continue his daily contacts with the political and security establishment inside Iran, because that's what matters, whether he's capable of...preserving a kind of continuity in preserving the ability of the regime to function.
RFE/RL: Can the regime survive?
Zimmt: Any kind of regime change in Iran -- and we certainly hope for regime change in Iran -- depends in my view on three main conditions. One is to see millions of Iranians in the streets. because otherwise it's going to be almost impossible, in my view, to topple the Iranian regime only through aerial strikes from above.
The second condition would be to see some kind of coalition between different sections and parts of the Iranian society -- students, women, bus drivers, workers, ethnic minorities -- working together.
Last but not least, I would say one condition for a regime change in Iran is to see some cracks and divisions and perhaps defections from within the security apparatus inside Iran. And that's something which is going to be very difficult to achieve because, as we know, the Revolutionary Guards [and] the Basij are very much dependent on the Islamic republic. They know that if the regime collapsed, they might pay the consequences for that. And so they will fight until the end, in my view.
RFE/RL: So no cracks so far?
Zimmt: We might see some weakening of the command and control networks inside Iran. We might see some divisions between different sections of the military and political establishment inside Iran.
But certainly we have not seen any kind of losing control. Just yesterday I looked at information about checkpoints established by the Basij, by the law enforcement forces in Iran. We still have reports about the intelligence agencies in Iran arresting people for treason or for cooperating with Israel.
RFE/RL: If the regime does survive, what's it going to be like?
Zimmt: I'm afraid that if their regime survives, especially if it's under Mojtaba Khamenei, we might see an even more hard-line state, more committed to not just continuing the core strategic goals of Iran -- meaning its missiles, nuclear, regional ambitions -- but we might also see a regime which might take more risks in comparison to [that under] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
For example, we know that throughout the years under Khamenei, Iran was certainly moving forward toward reaching a nuclear threshold state, but Khamenei didn't make a decision to break out.
My concern is that someone like Mojtaba might take the risk of breaking out, especially after realizing that this might be the ultimate deterrence vis-a-vis Israel and the United States.
RFE/RL: If the clerical establishment does remain in control, what will this mean for relations with the Gulf states?
Zimmt: They will realize that if this regime is still intact, they will have to live with that. And President Trump is not going to be here forever. I'm not sure if they can trust the Israelis, because some of them at least consider Israel to be a destabilizing force.
Their conclusion might be: We might have to work with Israel, with the United States. To strengthen our defense systems vis-a-vis the Iranians, we should try to find a way to accommodate with Iran because Iran is here to stay, because the Islamic republic might be here to stay.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Amid Ongoing Absence, Questions Raised About Iran's New Leader
Iran has launched several waves of missiles at Israel, in one of the heaviest bombardments in recent days. But where is its new leader?
- By RFE/RL
Commercial Ships Targeted As Iran Threatens Key Gulf Energy Transit Point
Three vessels were damaged in incidents across the Persian Gulf's key maritime artery, where about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies travel, as Iran continued to launch air attacks around the Middle East.
Commercial ships sailing under the flags of Thailand, Japan, and the Marshall Islands were targeted by unknown projectiles across the Strait of Hormuz, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a shipping security monitor, said on March 11.
While no crew members were reported dead following the attacks, UKMTO advised ships in the Strait of Hormuz to "transit with caution and report any suspicious activity," adding investigations into the incidents were ongoing.
Separately, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had struck a Liberian-flagged vessel in the Strait Of Hormuz that it claimed was owned by Israel.
Tehran has indicated it considers the ships transferring oil to the United States, Israel, and "their partners" as "legitimate" targets.
"We won't allow even one liter of oil to reach the US, Zionists, and their partners. Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target," said Iran's military command spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari on March 11.
Just off the shores of Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where the shipping lane narrows to a width of less than 4 kilometers, the attacks are the latest in at least a dozen incidents since US and Israeli forces began their military campaign against Iran on February 28. Those attacks have prompted retaliatory strikes by Iran on targets in many neighboring Gulf states.
US Forces 'Eliminated' 16 Iranian Mine-Layers
The flurry of strikes on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz follows US President Donald Trump's earlier warning to Iran in which he demanded Tehran remove any mines in the area or face "military consequences" that will be at "a level never seen before."
"If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait…we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on March 10, adding that US forces would "permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait."
Later in the day, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the American military had "eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels...including 16 minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz."
In a subsequent comment, CENTCOM urged civilians "to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating," saying Tehran was using its civilian infrastructure for military purposes.
As Iran continued its retaliatory strikes aimed at its oil-exporting neighbors, disruptions of shipping in the region plunged the global energy economy into crisis, with oil prices increasing by more than 5 percent on March 11.
Zolfaqari said global trade should prepare for oil prices to rise to "$200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilized."
In response to these developments, President Donald Trump said the United States would tap its strategic oil reserves "a little bit" to help ease price pressures.
"Right now, we'll reduce it a little bit and that brings the prices down," he said in a TV interview. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the world's largest emergency supply of oil products, established in 1975 to be access during times of energy disruptions.
The US Energy Department said the release was part of a wider release of crude by 32 countries belonging to the International Energy Agency. The IEA earlier said members unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves into the market.
"The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
The Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations released a statement saying its members have agreed to explore the possibility of aiding transiting ships through the Gulf.
"In this regard, a working group has been set up to explore the possibility of escorting ships when the right security conditions are in place, and this will also come along with approaches made to shipping companies, transport companies, and insurers," said the G7, which consists of the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France.
Erdogan: War 'Must Be Stopped'
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Iran war "must be stopped before it becomes bigger and completely engulfs the region in flames."
"There will be more loss of life and property, and the cost to the global economy will increase even further," Erdogan added, as more Iranian attacks were reported across the Middle East on the 12th day of the war.
UAE's emirate of Dubai said on March 11 that two drones crashed near the city's airport, leaving four people injured -- two citizens of Ghana, one from India, and one from Bangladesh.
Iran Threatens To Target US, Israeli Banks
In a separate development on March 11, Iran announced its forces will target economic centers and banks belonging to the United States and Israel, saying the decision was taken in response to the "enemy" targeting a bank in Iran.
A spokesperson for Khatam al-Anbiya, the Iranian military's joint operational command, called the alleged attack an "illegitimate and unconventional" act in the war that had left Tehran's "hands free to target economic centers and banks belonging to" the United States and Israel "in the region."
The statement urged people in countries where US and Israeli banks are located not to remain within a 1-kilometer radius of them.
While Khatam al-Anbiya's statement did not name the bank or its location, only saying it was struck overnight, Bank Sepah -- one of Iran's largest state-owned banks -- later said one of its branches in Tehran was hit by a missile early in the day.
Separately, Iran's state television channel IRINN reported the employees working in the bank were on the extra shift to prepare March salary payments. According to the report, a "high" number of people were killed in the attack.
There was no immediate comment from the United States or Israel. Later on March 11, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced a new "wide-scale wave of strikes targeting Iranian terror regime infrastructure across Iran."
"Simultaneously, the IDF has begun striking Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut," Israel's military added in a statement published on Telegram.
With reporting by Reuters
Oil, War, And The Strait of Hormuz: Can Washington Safeguard Global Energy Markets From Iran?
WASHINGTON -- As the United States and Israel's conflict with Iran converges on the Strait of Hormuz -- the world's most critical energy chokepoint -- the economic consequences of a major disruption to oil and gas supplies could reverberate around the world.
About a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally flows through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international markets. Yet tanker traffic has slowed sharply amid security concerns, military threats, and reports that Iran is deploying mines and other asymmetric measures to inflict damage on vessels attempting to use the strait.
Already the market response has been seen: Oil surged toward $120 per barrel before retreating slightly while aviation fuel prices remain around double the levels seen in January.
For analysts, these swings underscore a fundamental question: Can Tehran leverage the global energy system as a strategic weapon, or can the United States and its partners prevent that scenario?
The US military said it knocked out 16 Iranian mine-laying ships near the Strait of Hormuz on March 10. But Iran still appeared capable of wreaking havoc in the waterway, with three commercial vessels reportedly hit by explosions on March 11, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British naval coordination center that monitors security threats to commercial shipping.
Markets Reacting To Risk, Not Supply
So far, analysts said the market appears to be pricing in uncertainty rather than actual supply disruptions.
"What we're seeing is minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour market reactions to the scale and duration of the conflict," said Mason Hamilton, vice president for economics and research at the American Petroleum Institute.
Before the crisis, oil markets anticipated a supply glut and relatively low prices. The sudden threat to the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum liquids move daily -- upended that outlook.
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) note that markets often move ahead of physical shortages.
Kevin Book, the think tank's senior analyst, said traders are preparing for the possibility that Gulf producers could be forced to halt production if exports stall.
Even modest price swings carry enormous financial consequences: a $30 per barrel shift in a market of 100 million barrels per day represents roughly $3 billion in daily value changes, excluding derivatives.
Iran's Asymmetric Leverage
For Tehran, targeting global energy flows may be among the few strategic options it has left against far more powerful adversaries like the United States.
"Iran's objective is survival," said Khalid Azim, director of the MENA Futures Lab at the Atlantic Council. "It cannot confront the US or Israel head on, so it relies on asymmetric tactics to raise the cost of conflict."
Even minor disruptions in the Strait can have outsized effects, given the concentration of global energy trade in a handful of maritime chokepoints.
Azim warned that current market reactions may underestimate the risks, noting financial markets outside energy have remained relatively calm.
"There is a lot of asymmetric risk that the market is not fully pricing," he said.
Washington's Calculus: Pressure Without A Shock
For the United States, the challenge is balancing military objectives with the imperative to prevent a global energy shock.
US President Donald Trump has said Washington is ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, although media outlets -- including Reuters -- have reported that the US Navy has so far has refused all shipping industry requests for military escorts because of the current high risk.
Meanwhile, officials from the Group of Seven (G7) nations are also talking about the potential release of emergency oil stockpiles to soften the market impact of any halt in energy flows because of the situation.
Richard Goldberg, a former Trump administration National Security Council official, said the US strategy combines market tools and military measures: insurance guarantees for shipping, encouragement of tanker movements, and naval escort operations if necessary. Carrier strike groups and missile-defense assets are already in position.
"The goal is to show Iran it cannot successfully choke off global oil flows without facing overwhelming countermeasures," Goldberg told an Atlantic Council event on March 10.
He emphasized that efforts are designed to mitigate disruption, not replace a major supply corridor indefinitely.
Even if production continues, the crisis exposes the fragility of energy logistics.
"There are two layers of risk: the infrastructure that produces barrels and the flow of those barrels," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. Refineries have been shut as a precaution, storage tanks are filling, and some producers have already curtailed output as exports slow.
Shipping companies face their own dilemma: Insurance alone may not compel crews to navigate a war zone. Extended delays could force Gulf producers to shut in millions of barrels, amplifying market instability.
The Strait of Hormuz also channels roughly 20 percent of global LNG, meaning disruptions could ripple through electricity, petrochemical, and fertilizer supply chains.
Asia, as the largest Gulf oil importer, is particularly exposed. Europe, reliant on LNG and refined products, faces vulnerability at a moment of low gas reserves after winter.
Restarting facilities after shutdowns can take weeks or months. "These are complex industrial systems designed to run continuously," Hamilton noted.
The crisis is unfolding amid a broader shift in US energy strategy. With the United States now the world's largest oil and gas producer, energy supply is increasingly treated as a strategic asset, giving policymakers leverage to pursue security objectives while cushioning domestic markets.
Duration Will Decide the Stakes
The crisis's severity hinges on how long disruptions persist. A brief interruption may be absorbed, but prolonged closure, according to Washington analysts, could keep oil prices above $100 per barrel, stoke inflation, slow economic growth, or even trigger recession in vulnerable economies.
CSIS experts note that while inventories, alternative routes, and emergency reserves provide buffers, they are designed for short-term disruptions, not a protracted shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
The unfolding confrontation is a test of the global energy system's resilience. Sustained Iranian pressure could prolong instability, while effective US and allied measures could demonstrate the limits of energy coercion.
For now, the key question remains: Will the Strait of Hormuz remain open or become the epicenter of a new energy war?
- By Ray Furlong and
- Alex Raufoglu
US And Israel United In War, Divided On What Comes Next
TEL AVIV -- Driving past the gleaming skyscrapers of downtown Tel Aviv, a huge video billboard catches the eye as the advertisement switches from groceries to a giant portrait of the US president with the caption: "Thank you, God and Donald Trump!"
The tribute bears witness to Israeli gratitude for America's role in the military strikes on Iran. Israeli officials have repeatedly stressed that the two countries are in lockstep.
"The cooperation is historic between the US military and the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and between the Israeli Air Force and the US Air Force," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 6 in an example of how the two countries are on the same page.
There is indeed extremely close military and political coordination. But there are also areas where priorities differ.
When Does This End?
For years, Netanyahu has pushed the idea of regime change in Iran and still appears committed to that aim.
"Our aspiration is to enable the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny," he said on March 9.
But most analysts believe regime change cannot be achieved quickly, so Trump's statement later that day, that the war could be over " very soon," raised the question: What if America's choice of an end date is earlier than Israel's?
"The United States is the one who leads when it comes to that end date. Israel is willing to continue these attacks against the Islamic regime. We're also engaged against Hezbollah, an Islamic regime proxy in Lebanon. We would like to continue that. But we'll stop when the US says we need to stop," Miri Eisin, a former deputy head of the Israeli military's Combat Intelligence Corps, told RFE/RL on March 10.
"There were very clear aims of regime change, and you're not seeing that. But let's be realistic about it. There's the rhetoric of politicians and there's the reality of the military. For the military, every additional day [means] more targets. For the politicians, they make their own decisions," added Eisin, now a fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Tel Aviv.
War Aims
In fact, it is not entirely clear whether regime change is even one of the US objectives.
When US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listed US war aims a few hours after RFE/RL spoke to Eisin, he didn't even mention it.
"One: Destroy their missile stockpiles, their missile launchers, and their defense industrial base, missiles and their ability to make them. Two: Destroy their navy. And three: Permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons forever," Hegseth said as he went through the goals of the conflict.
Trump has spoken of "unconditional surrender" and said regime change would be "the best thing that could happen."
He said on March 10 that he was "disappointed" that the Iranian regime chose Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his late father as supreme leader but declined to say what the United States might do about it.
RFE/RL has spoken to a number of US congressional aides focused on national security in Washington who have voiced concern about a potential disconnect on this and other issues.
"One government appears to be pursuing regime collapse," a Republican aide said on condition of anonymity. "The other says it isn't -- except when it does. And that's the rub. On key objectives, we're not entirely in sync."
In any war, the timeline usually depends on the aims being pursued. Following the three objectives listed by Hegseth, victory can be declared without regime change.
Some analysts argue the United States may prefer an earlier end to operations than Israel if oil prices rise too much because the two countries have a different pain-tolerance level in this regard.
Sarit Zehavi, head of Tel Aviv think-tank Alma, said Iran's war strategy -- and its attacks on the Gulf states -- was focused on just this.
"The interest was to create a situation that America will not finish the job. To create a situation that the Gulf countries will ask Trump to stop," she said.
Oil
There have also been some hints of divergence on military targets, with Washington reportedly unhappy at an Israeli strike on an Iranian oil facility which showered Tehran in black rain a few days ago.
Asked about this on March 10, Hegseth said hitting the oil sites "wasn't necessarily our objective."
But he rejected the idea that Israel was pulling the United States into operations that go against Washington's interests: "We're not getting pulled in any direction. We're leading, the president is leading."
On Capitol Hill, another aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, cautioned: "Destroying oil fields can spiral energy markets. Israel sees it as crippling Iran's ability to fund war, but for the US there's a risk we drag the global economy into the conflict. It's a tactical win with strategic costs."
On March 9, influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham spelled it out in a social media post. "Please be cautious about what targets you select," he wrote, adding that the oil economy would be crucial for Iran's reconstruction.
But Yoel Guzonsky, a former member of Israel's National Security Council, said his country's strikes on Iranian oil facilities had in fact been a calibrated warning shot.
"Both the US and Israel are being very careful not to hit the main oil installations with Iran because they know that Iran's retaliation might be in the Gulf states, and then we'll see a different scenario," he said, referring to the danger of future Iranian strikes on Gulf-state oil industry targets.
"Iran didn't even scratch the oil fields and the gas fields in the Gulf," he added. "Perhaps Iran is saving itself another escalatory step toward a longer war."
Hezbollah
The issue of Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist organization the United States, also suggests Israel and the White House have slightly different priorities in this war. For Washington, hitting Iran is top of the agenda. In Israel, Hezbollah is a threat that's much closer to home.
"People don't think about the fact that I drive up north, and I live up north, and you can be 100 meters, let alone a kilometer or two, from these different sites that Hezbollah is firing from. So, for us, that's a very near and present danger," Eisin told RFE/RL.
There have been numerous Israeli media reports and analyst predictions in recent days that a much larger ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon may be being prepared.
But, Eisin added, this was not diverting Israel's attention from the war with Iran. Eisin said Israel was mostly using different kinds of forces in Lebanon and was also attacking Iranian targets there.
"Israel openly attacked a few days ago, at the heart of Beirut, an Islamic regime Quds force…. So, you see that combo here. We're attacking the Islamic regime, different types of terror army capabilities, both in Lebanon and in Iran," she said.
But for Washington, the calculus is different. "From a US perspective, Hezbollah is a proxy problem, rather than a direct existential threat," one congressional aide said.
- By Mike Eckel
Random Numbers, Persian Code: A Mysterious Signal Transfixes Radio Sleuths -- And Intelligence Experts
The radio signal first started broadcasting on February 28, about 12 hours after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran.
On a scratchy shortwave signal almost twice a day -- in the early morning and early evening on Coordinated Universal Time -- a man's voice can be heard speaking Persian, counting out a series of apparently random numbers. The numbers are read out for varying stretches of time, followed by a pause in which the word tavajjoh -- which translates as "attention" -- is spoken three times.
The mystery of the transmission transfixed many in the global community of amateur radio sleuths, who have traded notes and tips on the signal, who's behind it, and what its purpose might be.
Five days later, it got more interesting.
Beginning on March 4, the signal started to be jammed, with a cacophonous screech of electronic noise that made it all but impossible to hear the numbers. The original transmission paused for a period of time, then moved to another shortwave frequency.
"It's interesting because it started to be jammed on the initial frequency," said Akin Fernandez, who is widely considered an authority on the decades-old encoded radio technology known as a numbers station. "Someone doesn't want the recipient [of the signal] to hear the numbers."
"It's an adversarial situation, two groups acting against one another. The question [is] who has the technical means to jam a station," Fernandez said. "The United States has the means, which means this is being transmitted by Iran. Or then it could be Iran, which means the United States is the transmission source."
"More likely this is an operation against Iran," he said.
'Absolutely Unbreakable'
Regardless of whose transmission it is and who is doing the jamming -- there are plenty of competing theories -- the mysterious broadcast is a throwback to another era, before the advent of digital encryption used widely in apps like WhatsApp and Signal and other places.
The transmission is called a numbers station, a Cold War-era tool that employs radio transmissions and old-school cryptology to transmit secret messages, usually to spies around the world.
The concept: Using a random series of a numbers, generated by some mechanical or electronic device or something more powerful, a person can send a coded message to another person in possession of a decoder, often called a "one-time pad."
Anyone can listen to the transmission; shortwave transmissions travel long distances, signals bouncing off the atmosphere. But only a person with the decoder key can decipher it. The concept got a cameo in the US spy drama The Americans, set in the 1980s.
Numbers station code is "absolutely unbreakable," said Fernandez, who more than two decades ago published a four-CD audio compendium of hundreds of recordings from around the world called the Conet Project. It's considered the Bible for numbers-station enthusiasts.
"The number keys that are used are perfectly random. There are no mathematical operations you can use on them to brute force them," he said. "And even if the answer gets out, say in proper English, it's not necessarily understandable."
"You can't tell anything about a random set of letters or numbers by their length other than their length. The length of message is not the content of the information being transmitted," he said. "But it is possible to infer the purpose of stations by the length that they're online and the noise they transmit if there is no text message."
The Persian language broadcast is the first new numbers station in years, according to Priyom, a blog run by radio enthusiasts who identified, cataloged, and analyzed the signal. The transmission was first dubbed V32 by a British-based group called Enigma2000. US-based reporter Seth Hettena also highlighted the signal in a blog post on March 4.
The group says its far-flung members have been able to triangulate the origin of the signal's transmitter: "somewhere in an area encompassing northern Italy, Switzerland, western Germany, eastern France, Belgium, and the Netherlands."
That narrowed the possibilities for the owner of the V32 transmission.
And then the jamming started.
Bubble Jammer
During the Cold War, broadcasts such as those from the BBC, Deutsche Welle, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, among others, were routinely jammed by Soviet bloc authorities who wanted to discourage citizens from getting uncensored information: news about their own countries, or, say, jazz and rock music from the West.
You drown out the incoming broadcast with dissonant noise, something known as a bubble jammer.
On March 4, according to Priyom, a bubble jammer started broadcasting noise on the same shortwave frequency as the original V32 broadcast, rendering it difficult to understand.
The V32 transmissions were interrupted briefly and then switched to another nearby frequency, Priyom said.
"At first the station was thought to be a spy station for the Iran Islamic regime, but when the bubble jammer appeared to jam it, it was an eye-opener," said Mauno Ritola, a database administrator at the Radio Data Center, a German-based radio company.
"It is exactly the same kind of bubble jammer that is used against Radio Farda, VOA Farsi, Iran International TV shortwave relay, and BBC Farsi," he said. "Even Radio Free Iran suffered from it one night."
Radio Farda is the Persian-language service for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, also known as RFE/RL.
As for the source of the transmission, the global radio community has competing theories; many appear to home in on the United States as the originator, potentially sending coded messages to agents within Iran.
Other theories focus on Israel or even Turkey, which is not a participant in the US-Israeli campaign but is a long-established regional rival to Tehran.
Or, the Priyom bloggers posited, it could be a psychological operation: "a pretty visible, single-frequency station, starting up out of nowhere for a prime-time show on the first day of the war, with relatively few reliability features to ensure recipients actually could copy messages in their entirety and without errors."
The CIA did not immediately respond to an e-mailed query from RFE/RL.
Further muddying the waters: ABC News on March 9 reported that the US government had sent an alert to law enforcement agencies regarding "intercepted encrypted communications."
The report did not specify what exactly the transmission was, or whether it was a numbers station signal.
"While the exact contents of these transmissions cannot currently be determined, the sudden appearance of a new station with international rebroadcast characteristics warrants heightened situational awareness," ABC quoted the alert as saying.