Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.
Welcome To The New Eurasia
In the heart of Eurasia, a new trade route made up of thousands of kilometers of roads, railroads, and ports is emerging to better connect China to Europe and redraw the lines of global trade.
Take a deeper look through this new interactive map done by myself and my colleagues Wojtek Grojec and Ivan Gutterman.
Finding Perspective: The so-called Middle Corridor is a 6,500-kilometer trade route connecting China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus. Since 2022, it's been growing steadily, with trade volumes skyrocketing and new investments into things like ports and highways from investors in Europe, China, and the Middle East.
According to a World Bank study released in late 2023, trade volumes along the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030, reaching 11 million tons.
That's a big turnaround for a route that has existed in some form for years but was largely avoided by shipping companies due to rising costs, unpredictable border crossings, and a lack of high-quality infrastructure.
Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the majority of overland trade between China and the EU traveled north through Russia and used its well-developed rail network to carry goods between the two massive markets.
But the outbreak of war changed all of that. With new sanctions in place on Russia's economy, Western governments and major shipping companies were left searching for alternatives as they looked to bypass Russia and plan for the reality of a long war in Ukraine.
What Comes Next? While its use is growing, the uptake in traffic along the Middle Corridor has laid many of these limitations bare and raised questions about whether it can live up to its potential.
Despite being a shorter distance, there are huge issues with wait times and customs procedures that currently make the Middle Corridor a longer journey than going north through Russia.
On top of that, the economic opportunity opened up along the route has also exposed new geopolitical battlegrounds that could determine if the Middle Corridor gets bogged down or not.
Central to this is China. Without its demand and interest for using the route, the Middle Corridor doesn't make much sense.
But while Beijing has generally been hesitant about the route, it appears to be warming up to it.
In May, a Chinese consortium was awarded a contract to build and manage a deep-sea port in Anaklia on Georgia's Black Sea coast.
Georgian officials -- who have increasingly turned to China for large infrastructure projects in recent years -- have also begun to call for Beijing to join the official Middle Corridor body, which could open up new cooperation and investment opportunities.
Why It Matters: While the Middle Corridor is often sold as a route connecting Europe and China, its biggest value could be in creating internal trade between Central Asia and the Caucasus around the Caspian Sea.
World Bank projections say that trade between Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan could increase 37 percent by 2030 and 28 percent between those countries and the European Union.
While that may not be much on a global scale, it's a big deal for one of the world's least-connected regions that has long struggled with being plugged into the flows of international trade.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. New Investigation Into China's Gold Mining In Tajikistan
My colleagues at RFE/RL's Tajik Service spent the last year investigating a collection of Chinese-run mining projects in Tajikistan, where the government is turning a blind eye to environmental degradation in order to not jeopardize a vital stream of foreign investment.
The Details: One high-level official from the Environmental Protection Committee, Tajikistan's main environmental agency, told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity that the state body had been ordered to turn a blind eye to any environmental or health issues stemming from a Chinese-run gold mine in Zarafshon.
"We also have complaints about environmental pollution, but if we put too much pressure on Zarafshon or increase inspections and fines, the Chinese investor may leave Tajikistan," he said. "This would be very harmful for our economy because [the Chinese company] produced some 2.2 billion somonis ($201 million) worth of [gold] in six months of 2023."
Further reporting from my Tajik colleagues shows how this pattern is replicating itself at other Chinese-owned mining sites across the country, with air pollution, health problems, and a mass die-off of fish plaguing nearby communities.
The poorest country in Central Asia, Tajikistan's economy has struggled over the years as it has grappled with the fallout from a devastating civil war in the 1990s and has relied on Russia for trade, investment, and loans.
But autocratic President Emomali Rahmon, who has ruled Tajikistan with an iron fist since 1994, has moved the country closer to Beijing and is an enthusiastic member of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Since 2010, China has emerged as the country's largest trade partner, foreign investor, and lender, with Beijing owning more than half of Dushanbe's foreign debt.
This translates into growing political influence from Beijing and an economic dependence on China that has Tajik officials looking the other way to poor mining practices that are harming local communities.
Read the full investigation by RFE/RL's Tajik Service here.
2. Where Does Harris Stand On China?
Last week, I looked at past and current statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump and his running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, to read the tea leaves on what their China policy could be.
Following President Joe Biden's decision to not seek reelection and Vice President Kamala Harris's announcement to run, let's look at her record.
What You Need To Know: Most analysts say it's safe to assume Harris would have a similar line as Biden on major issues like the war in Ukraine, China's geopolitical rise, and tensions in the Middle East.
As vice president, she worked as a surrogate for Biden at world gatherings such as the 2023 ASEAN summit, the Munich Security Conference in 2022, and in Switzerland this June at Ukrainian President Zelenskiy's peace summit.
While serving in the Senate, Harris was outspoken on China issues and worked on bipartisan legislation promoting human rights in Hong Kong. She also co-sponsored the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act in 2020, which allows the U.S. government to impose sanctions against "foreign individuals and entities responsible for human rights abuses" in Xinjiang.
If elected, she'd also likely continue unofficial backing for Taiwan. In September 2022, she said, "We will continue to support Taiwan's self-defense, consistent with our long-standing policy."
In May, Philip Gordon, her national security adviser, spoke with the Council on Foreign Relations in a wide-ranging conversation and had some interesting comments on the China-Russia relationship and what he sees as the U.S. advantage in maintaining stronger alliances.
"We're in a favorable position to win this geopolitical competition, to the degree it's Russia and China and other autocracies aligning against us. We feel pretty good about that. It's a core part of our strategy. It's why the president and the vice president have invested so much time in those alliances."
3. Ukraine's Top Diplomat Goes To China
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is currently in Beijing as part of his first visit to China since Russia's full-scale invasion.
What It Means: The three-day visit began on July 23, with Ukraine's top diplomat traveling at the invitation of Wang Yi, his Chinese counterpart.
After landing, Kuleba said in an Instagram post that he would use his trip to develop contacts between Chinese and Ukrainian leaders and that he would be having "extensive, detailed, [and] substantive negotiations" with Wang over how to reach a peace settlement for the grinding war that is now in its third year.
"We must avoid competing peace plans. It is very important that Kyiv and Beijing conduct a direct dialogue and exchange positions," Kuleba said.
The trip comes as various peace initiatives have emerged in recent months against the backdrop of prolonged fighting and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November that could see the return of former President Trump, who has threatened to limit aid flows to Ukraine and push for talks between Kyiv and Moscow that could quickly end the war.
Across The Supercontinent
China's Palestine Diplomacy: Palestinian factions including rivals Hamas and Fatah have signed an agreement on "ending division and strengthening Palestinian unity" in Beijing.
Supply Chains: Amid competition between China and the West for rare-earth minerals and the supply chains of the future, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will head to Belgrade to discuss a new partnership with Serbia on lithium mining, RFE/RL's Balkan Service reports.
The Economic Engine: As Western companies quake at the latest onslaught of cheap Chinese goods, a similar drama is playing out in China, where manufacturers are struggling as Beijing boosts industrial capacity without stimulating new demand, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Up North: A Newsweek investigation looks at China's growing ambitions in the Arctic and finds that scientific research teams are blurring the lines between Beijing's security and economic goals for the region.
One Thing To Watch
Normally, I write something here about China, but this week it's about my colleague Alsu Kurmasheva, a veteran journalist who holds dual U.S.-Russian citizenship, sentenced to 6 1/2 years in prison by a Russian court on baseless charges.
While news broke on July 22 about her sentencing, her verdict was delivered in secret on July 19, the same day Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was found guilty of espionage charges -- which he, his employer, and the U.S. government have rejected as politically motivated -- by a court in the city of Yekaterinberg.
Alsu is a 47-year-old mother of two and was arrested in Kazan in October 2023 and first charged with failing to register as a "foreign agent" under a punitive Russian law that targets journalists, civil society activists, and others. She was later charged with spreading falsehoods about the Russian military.
That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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