The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking into how the end of nearly two decades of leftist rule in Bolivia could put a damper on Iran’s strategy of expanding its influence in Latin America.

What You Need To Know

• Shaky Latin American Foothold After Right Pivot: Bolivia’s election of Rodrigo Paz, a center-right senator, ends roughly two decades of dominance by the Movement for Socialism party (MAS) and signals a foreign-policy realignment toward the United States and a prospective reset with Israel after ties were severed in 2023 amid the Gaza war fallout. For Iran, which expanded security and political links with La Paz in recent years, the pivot threatens a significant loss of diplomatic cover and operational permissiveness in the Andes.

• Top Iranian Officials Accused Of Shah-Era Assassination: US-based scholar Mehrzad Boroujerdi has accused top Iranian figures Ali Shamkhani and Mohsen Rezaei of assassinating his father, Malek Boroujerdi, just weeks before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Speaking to RFE/RL’s Radio Farda, he said his father had been targeted for his opposition to the crippling oil workers’ strike, which contributed to the fall of the monarchy.

• Khamenei Rejects Talks With US Again: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week again rejected negotiations with the United States, toughening his stance on Iran’s nuclear and missile program. In his first speech in nearly two months, Khamenei accused US President Donald Trump of looking to impose a deal on Iran. He also denied Trump’s assertion that Iranian nuclear sites were destroyed in US strikes in June.

The Big Issue

Recalibrating Relations

Paz campaigned on stabilizing an economy battered by shortages and currency strain, but the external shift is immediate: The United States and Israel were quick to welcome the result, framing it as a chance to rebuild relations and cooperation.

Iran, too, issued a statement congratulating Paz on his victory, but that seemed to be more out of courtesy than anything else.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar spoke with Paz shortly after his election was confirmed on October 20 and expressed his country’s desire to “turn a new page” in ties with Bolivia. He also said Israel will be represented in Paz’s inauguration on November 8 after receiving a formal invitation from the incoming president.

There is no record of any Iranian officials speaking with Paz yet.

Why It Matters: Bolivia has been cited by regional and Israeli analysts as a “rising state” in Iran’s Latin America footprint, especially after a 2023 security agreement referencing drones, cybersecurity, and training -- all of which are likely to face review under a US-leaning government.

A reset with Israel would further narrow Tehran’s space, stripping away a symbolic Andean bridgehead and tightening oversight on security cooperation that Washington views skeptically, with downstream effects on sanctions exposure and transit routes.

The shift also intersects with strategic minerals: Paz’s pro-market stance and expected compliance tilt may recalibrate lithium policy, complicating any indirect Iranian access to sensitive supply chains via Bolivian channels while La Paz rebalances between China and Western partners.

With Bolivia stepping back, Iran’s Latin strategy will lean more on its core partners -- Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba -- where long-standing political affinity and security cooperation are entrenched, limiting Tehran’s broader regional bandwidth.

In short, Bolivia’s pivot will likely compress Iran’s Latin American map, with fewer friendly capitals, more scrutiny on security and finance, and a harder path to leverage Andean geography for influence and logistics in what some consider to be “America’s backyard.”

What's Being Said: There has been little commentary in Iran about the implications of Paz’s victory on Tehran’s Latin America strategy. The reticence could be partially chalked up to analysts waiting to see whether Iran can build any sort of rapport with the new government in La Paz.

Expert Opinion: Outside of Iran, however, the analysis is pretty uniform.

Danny Citrinowicz, senior fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, describes Paz’s election as “another severe blow” to Iran’s ambitions in Latin America.

“Unfortunately for them, this is probably not the end,” he adds.

Nicolas Saldias, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has similar views.

“Paz will foster better relations with the United States, which has had extremely poor bilateral relations under MAS,” he says. “Paz will likely distance Bolivia from close ties with Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia and Iran, but maintain pragmatic ties with China.”

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I explore the surprising -- and brief -- reactivation of the tracking systems on Iran’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers after years of staying in the shadows.

What You Need To Know

• Trackers On, Trackers Off: For the first time since 2018, dozens of Iranian oil tankers linked to the country’s sanctioned exports briefly activated their tracking systems on October 13 before many went dark again. Analysts are divided on whether the move was a calculated show of defiance, while in Iran some have hinted at possible “sabotage.”

• More Women Shun The Hijab: A growing number of women and girls, particularly in the capital Tehran, have stopped covering their head in public, in direct defiance of the country’s clerical rulers. Several women have spoken to RFE/RL’s Radio Farda about how Iran’s streets are “transformed” following the nationwide protests in 2022 that gave rise to the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement.

• French Pair Handed Heavy Sentences: An Iranian court this week sentenced two French citizens to lengthy prison terms for allegedly spying for France and Israel. French state-owned broadcaster France 24 identified the pair as Cecile Kohler and her partner Jacques Paris. Speaking to Radio Farda, French-Iranian academic Fariba Adelkhah, who also served time in Iran, criticized the judicial system and said, “We’re all spies unless proven otherwise.”

The Big Issue

Daring The West Or Internal Power Play?

Much of Iran’s oil fleet briefly came out of hiding between October 12 and October 14, according to the monitoring service TankerTrackers.

Nearly 80 percent of Iranian‑flagged tankers activated their AIS (Automatic Identification System) transponders, broadcasting real locations rather than spoofed or blank signals.

Analysts were quick to note the timing, with many speculating that it was a coordinated move meant to dare the West, particularly the United States, in the wake of fresh US sanctions and return of UN embargoes.

The Iranian website Energy Press, citing an “informed source,” described the AIS activation as a “major sabotage” carried out “by the enemies of the government.”

Yet the reveal didn’t last. By October 15, TankerTrackers reported that two‑thirds of the Iranian fleet had gone silent again, cutting transmissions or reverting to spoofed coordinates around Southeast Asia and the Gulf of Oman. By October 16, only a sixth of the tankers had kept their tracking systems online.

Why It Matters: The move coincided with the reimposition of UN sanctions initiated by Britain, France, and Germany through the “snapback” mechanism and new US Treasury actions targeting dozens of ships and companies.

This is why some observers described the AIS activation as an act of defiance, which was welcomed by pro-Islamic republic voices on social media.

As part of its “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, US President Donald Trump's administration has made it a priority to drive down Tehran’s oil exports.

Iran’s economy is heavily reliant on oil revenues, and it has used its “shadow fleet” of tankers to evade sanctions and covertly transport oil to China -- by far its top buyer -- and other destinations.

Tehran uses a combination of ship-to-ship transfers, middlemen, covert financial dealings, and rebranding of oil shipments to hide their Iranian origin and make the oil appear to be from other countries. These tactics enable the Islamic republic to continue exporting oil and generating revenue despite sanctions aimed at blocking its petroleum trade.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated Iran's crude oil and condensate export revenues at about $43 billion for 2024, up $1 billion from the previous year.

What's Being Said: There has been no official comment from Tehran on why its “shadow fleet” went online for the first time in seven and a half years.

Mahmud Khaqani, a former director at the Iranian Oil Ministry, said one possibility is that critics of the reformist government had a part to play.

“[They] may be seeking to create a new crisis by provoking the United States and its allies into tracking or seizing Iranian tankers,” he suggested in an interview with local media.

Another possibility, Khaqani proposed, is that “concealing tanker routes is no longer feasible” due to the unprecedented glut in the global oil market.

Abdollah Babakhani, an energy analyst in Iran, offered a more optimistic take on the development.

“Such a move could either mark the beginning of a limited return to maritime transparency or signal behind-the-scenes negotiations over the security of energy routes in the Persian Gulf,” he wrote.

Expert Opinion: Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, suggested that if the AIS activation was deliberate, it signals that the Islamic republic may be “challenging those who are thinking about stopping their tankers to a face-off: they can reciprocate at the Strait of Hormuz.”

Hard-line figures in Tehran have long threatened to close the vital energy chokepoint if Iran is pushed into a corner.

Sina Toosi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, speculated on X that “Iran at this point may very well welcome a clash that drives up oil prices & inflicts a political cost on Trump.”

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.