The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking at why Iran continues to reject direct talks with the Donald Trump administration while weighing its response to the US president's nuclear outreach.

What You Need To Know

• Trump’s Letter To Khamenei Arrives In Tehran: US President Donald Trump’s letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposing talks over a nuclear deal was delivered this week by an Emirati delegation. Hours before the delegation arrived, Khamenei reiterated his stance that there was no point in negotiating with Washington.

• IRGC Veteran Claims Killing Of Iranian Dissidents In Europe: Mohsen Rafiqdoost, one of the founders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed this week that he had orchestrated the killings of several high-profile Iranian dissidents in Europe between 1979 and 1992. His office later attributed the comments to “extensive complications” from a brain operation, while the IRGC dismissed Rafiqdoost’s comments as “his personal opinion.” One dissident whose assassination Rafiqdoost claimed is Fereydoun Farrokhzad. RFE/RL’s Radio Farda has produced a documentary on his grisly killing.

• Spotlight On Iran And Russia After Violence In Syria: While the eruption of violence in western Syria has raised questions about the transitional government’s ability to control its affiliated factions, it has also brought Russian and Iranian involvement in Syrian affairs into sharp focus. Through interviews and analysis of open-source data, RFE/RL can give a clearer picture of what's happening inside Syria.

The Big Issue

Will Talks Lift Pressure On Iran? Khamenei Doesn’t Think So

Khamenei on March 12 again dismissed the prospect of talks with the Trump administration, telling an audience in Tehran that “negotiating with this US administration won’t result in the sanctions being removed.”

As Khamenei was delivering his speech, Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, was on his way to Tehran to deliver Trump’s letter to the Iranian supreme leader.

The contents of the letter have not been disclosed, but Trump said last week when he revealed he had written to Khamenei that Washington “cannot let [Iran] have a nuclear weapon”, insisting that he preferred a peaceful resolution to tension over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Why It Matters: Iran’s economy has been reeling from years of sanctions, particularly after Trump, in his first term, pulled the US out of a landmark nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions.

But more sanctions could come if Tehran and Washington don’t reach an agreement. With the 2015 nuclear deal formally expiring in October 2025, world powers only have a few months before they lose the power to “snap back” UN sanctions on Iran.

Washington’s European allies have gradually begun threatening Tehran that they will trigger a return of the sanctions. Iran has threatened to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if UN sanctions are reimposed.

While the Islamic republic has not formally responded to Trump’s letter, the White House has warned that military action is very much on the table should Iran reject the US president’s outreach.

What's Being Said: Khamenei claimed in his speech that negotiating with Trump “will cause the knot of sanctions to become tighter and pressure to increase,” though he didn’t elaborate further.

Shahin Modarres, an Iranian security expert based in Rome, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the weakening of Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as the unraveling of its network of regional proxies, have left Tehran with “no leverage” at the negotiating table.

“The lack of leverage at the table leads to a kind of surrender,” he said.

In an interview published on March 13, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran won’t negotiate with Washington as long as Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign is in force.

“If we enter negotiations while the other side is imposing maximum pressure, we will be negotiating from a weak position and will achieve nothing,” he said, adding that talks can only take place when both nations are on “equal footing.”

Expert Opinion: “Negotiating with this US administration could result in some sanctions being removed. That's what negotiations address: Often they fail, occasionally they succeed. Dismissing negotiations, especially out of hand, guarantees that the knot of sanctions becomes tighter,” writes Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at International Crisis Group.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at how Russia's offer to mediate between Iran and the United States was received in Tehran.

What You Need To Know

• Russia Offers To Mediate Iran-US Talks: Various reports this week said Russia has offered to mediate between the United States and Iran, with the Kremlin insisting both nations should resolve issues through dialogue. The reports say US President Donald Trump has asked Moscow to help communicate with Iran on not only its nuclear program but also regional activities. Iranian media, however, are watching with narrowed eyes. They argue that Moscow is only looking to secure its own interests.

• US Wants To Make 'Iran Broke Again': US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week said the Trump administration's sanctions aim to shut down Iran's oil industry and "collapse its already buckling economy." He added that "making Iran broke again" will mark the beginning of the government's sanctions policy toward the Islamic republic. Tehran has not commented on Bessent's remarks.

• Singer Flogged For Song Slamming Mandatory Hijab: Iranian pop singer Mehdi Yarrahi received 74 lashes this week for a song that criticized Iran's mandatory hijab law. Released in August 2023 ahead of the first anniversary of the Women, Life, Freedom movement, the song led to his arrest later that month. The flogging sparked widespread outrage on social media, with figures like Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi condemning it as an act of revenge against his support for Iranian women.

• Iranian Animation Makes History At Oscars: Iranian animated short film In The Shadow Of The Cypress made history this week by winning the Oscar for Best Animated Short Film at the 97th Academy Awards. Directed by Hossein Molayemi and Shirin Sohani, the 20-minute, dialogue-free film portrays a father's struggle with post-traumatic stress disorder and his relationship with his daughter as they attempt to save a beached whale.

The Big Issue

An Ally Or Sacrificial Lamb?

Just a couple of weeks after reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is looking to broker talks between Iran and the United States, Russia has also thrown its hat in the ring.

Whereas potential Saudi mediation was generally welcomed by Iranian media and pundits, the Russian offer has been met with skepticism.

While both Tehran and Moscow refer to each other as allies, critics say Russia ultimately looks out for its own interests and has no qualms about sacrificing Iran.

Why It Matters: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came out against direct talks with the Trump administration, saying his government cannot be trusted because he pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Russia was among the five world powers that signed the landmark nuclear accord, but Mohammad Javad Zarif, a former Iranian foreign minister who negotiated the deal, has previously charged that Moscow actively sought to erode the deal.

Relations between Iran and Russia have grown in recent years, but the deep mistrust of Moscow remains.

This particularly came to the fore after senior US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia last month to discuss normalizing relations and ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This led to concerns in Iran that Russia will ultimately abandon its ally for the sake of a good deal with the Trump administration.

What's Being Said: Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Russia lost its authority as one of the signatories to the Iran nuclear deal after launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

He argued that with its offer to mediate, Moscow was looking to "regain its place" and even "influence Iran's decision-making."

Nematollah Izadi, a former ambassador to Oman, charged that Russia "cannot be an impartial and honest mediator." He argued Saudi Arabia would be a better mediator because relations between Tehran and Washington would have little impact on Iran's dealings with Saudi Arabia. The same, he insisted, could not be said for Tehran's relations with Moscow.

The consensus among prominent media outlets in Iran is that Russia is only looking out for itself.

The reformist Sazandegi newspaper asserted Moscow "has shown in the past that it prioritizes its interests over everything else" and argued Iran would stand to lose if the United States and Russia reached any kind of agreement.

Even the Keyhan newspaper, whose editor in chief is appointed by Khamenei, insisted Tehran "does not need a mediator."

Some analysts, including Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group and Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, argued that European signatories to the 2015 deal -- Britain, France, and Germany -- would be apprehensive about Russian mediation, concerned they would be frozen out.

Expert Opinion: "It's entirely possible that in the coming months we find ourselves in a scenario where the US joins Russia in opposing UN sanctions snapback on Iran," says Eric Brewer, deputy vice president for the Nuclear Threat Initiative's Nuclear Materials Security Program.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.