Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at Iran displaying its missile prowess as a means of deterrence, despite having its missile-production capabilities degraded last year.
What You Need To Know
• Iran Unveils New Underground Missile Base: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) this week unveiled what has been described as Iran’s largest underground missile “city.” It comes as Iran’s network of regional proxies -- for years its main deterrence against Israel and the United States -- has suffered major setbacks and is at its weakest. With the Donald Trump administration not ruling out military action against Iran if there is no nuclear deal, Tehran is trying to project strength to ward off potential US or Israeli strikes.
• Journalist Trades Microphone For Rifle To Defend Ukraine: Kourosh Sehati, a journalist-turned-fighter, has become the first known Iranian to join Ukraine’s Foreign Legion against Russia. Sehati and his Ukrainian wife have two young children, and he calls Ukraine his “second home.” He told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that he left his family and job in London to defend Ukraine against what he called “the club of dictators and invaders.”
• Iran Accused Of Using Forged Papers To Evade Oil Sanctions: Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani stated this week that Iranian oil tankers seized by US forces in the Persian Gulf were using forged Iraqi documents to evade sanctions. Iran swiftly denied the claim, accusing the media of misquoting the Iraqi minister. Hard-line voices in Tehran went further, accusing Baghdad of "selling Iran out" to the United States. Later, Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad -- himself under US sanctions -- spoke with his Iraqi counterpart, urging “vigilance against the sedition of the enemies of both countries.”
The Big Issue
A Facility For Long-Range Missiles?
Iran says it has numerous underground missile bases across Iran, and sporadically unveils some with a lot of hype.
The newly unveiled base -- dubbed “a missile metropolis” by some outlets -- is a massive facility filled with high-powered weaponry, but experts say no new hardware could be spotted in footage shared by state media.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute, noted that an “unusual feature” of the base is its “wide and quite spacious tunnels and galleries. He concluded that the facility, which he speculated was in western Iran, was designed to house intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The base is home to missiles that travel well beyond 1,000 kilometers, including the Kheibarshekan and Sejjil ballistic missile and Paveh cruise missile, all of which can reach Israel and US bases in the Middle East if launched from western Iran.
Why It Matters: Iran is showing no interest in holding direct talks over its nuclear program with the United States, and has outright rejected negotiations to rein in its missile program and regional activities.
Trump has said he prefers a deal with Tehran, warning that it beats the alternative approach, which would be to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities -- something that US ally and Iranian foe Israel appears ready and willing to do.
For decades Iran relied on its sprawling network of regional allies and proxies, known as the ‘axis of resistance’, as deterrence against Israel and the United States. But key members of the group, including the US-designated Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah, have been militarily degraded by Israel over the past year.
Last month, The New York Times reported that Iran was considering developing a crude nuclear weapon as a deterrent against potential attacks. However, experts believe Western intelligence would likely detect such efforts in time to respond militarily.
Despite Iran’s show of missile prowess, an Israeli attack in November degraded the Islamic republic’s missile production capabilities.
What's Being Said: Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, said Iran was “clearly” sending a message with the unveiling.
“Iran is clearly signaling it regards its ability to bring overwhelming force via [medium-range ballistic missiles] as its chief source of deterrence, with Hezbollah out of action,” he wrote on X.
Abdolrasool Divsallar, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), said Iran “relies on the size of its missile arsenal” to make up for deficits in their accuracy and destructive power.
The New York-based Soufan Group argued that Iran’s unwillingness to restrict its missile and drone programs or its support for regional armed factions, in addition to its demands for extensive sanctions relief, “will further complicate US-Iran negotiations.”
Expert Opinion: “These developments reveal Iranian thinking about restructuring of its deterrence, highlighting a continued reliance on conventional forces & unwillingness to switch to nuclear deterrence,” Divsallar wrote on X.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.
