The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at how Russia's offer to mediate between Iran and the United States was received in Tehran.

What You Need To Know

• Russia Offers To Mediate Iran-US Talks: Various reports this week said Russia has offered to mediate between the United States and Iran, with the Kremlin insisting both nations should resolve issues through dialogue. The reports say US President Donald Trump has asked Moscow to help communicate with Iran on not only its nuclear program but also regional activities. Iranian media, however, are watching with narrowed eyes. They argue that Moscow is only looking to secure its own interests.

• US Wants To Make 'Iran Broke Again': US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week said the Trump administration's sanctions aim to shut down Iran's oil industry and "collapse its already buckling economy." He added that "making Iran broke again" will mark the beginning of the government's sanctions policy toward the Islamic republic. Tehran has not commented on Bessent's remarks.

• Singer Flogged For Song Slamming Mandatory Hijab: Iranian pop singer Mehdi Yarrahi received 74 lashes this week for a song that criticized Iran's mandatory hijab law. Released in August 2023 ahead of the first anniversary of the Women, Life, Freedom movement, the song led to his arrest later that month. The flogging sparked widespread outrage on social media, with figures like Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi condemning it as an act of revenge against his support for Iranian women.

• Iranian Animation Makes History At Oscars: Iranian animated short film In The Shadow Of The Cypress made history this week by winning the Oscar for Best Animated Short Film at the 97th Academy Awards. Directed by Hossein Molayemi and Shirin Sohani, the 20-minute, dialogue-free film portrays a father's struggle with post-traumatic stress disorder and his relationship with his daughter as they attempt to save a beached whale.

The Big Issue

An Ally Or Sacrificial Lamb?

Just a couple of weeks after reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is looking to broker talks between Iran and the United States, Russia has also thrown its hat in the ring.

Whereas potential Saudi mediation was generally welcomed by Iranian media and pundits, the Russian offer has been met with skepticism.

While both Tehran and Moscow refer to each other as allies, critics say Russia ultimately looks out for its own interests and has no qualms about sacrificing Iran.

Why It Matters: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came out against direct talks with the Trump administration, saying his government cannot be trusted because he pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Russia was among the five world powers that signed the landmark nuclear accord, but Mohammad Javad Zarif, a former Iranian foreign minister who negotiated the deal, has previously charged that Moscow actively sought to erode the deal.

Relations between Iran and Russia have grown in recent years, but the deep mistrust of Moscow remains.

This particularly came to the fore after senior US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia last month to discuss normalizing relations and ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This led to concerns in Iran that Russia will ultimately abandon its ally for the sake of a good deal with the Trump administration.

What's Being Said: Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Russia lost its authority as one of the signatories to the Iran nuclear deal after launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

He argued that with its offer to mediate, Moscow was looking to "regain its place" and even "influence Iran's decision-making."

Nematollah Izadi, a former ambassador to Oman, charged that Russia "cannot be an impartial and honest mediator." He argued Saudi Arabia would be a better mediator because relations between Tehran and Washington would have little impact on Iran's dealings with Saudi Arabia. The same, he insisted, could not be said for Tehran's relations with Moscow.

The consensus among prominent media outlets in Iran is that Russia is only looking out for itself.

The reformist Sazandegi newspaper asserted Moscow "has shown in the past that it prioritizes its interests over everything else" and argued Iran would stand to lose if the United States and Russia reached any kind of agreement.

Even the Keyhan newspaper, whose editor in chief is appointed by Khamenei, insisted Tehran "does not need a mediator."

Some analysts, including Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group and Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, argued that European signatories to the 2015 deal -- Britain, France, and Germany -- would be apprehensive about Russian mediation, concerned they would be frozen out.

Expert Opinion: "It's entirely possible that in the coming months we find ourselves in a scenario where the US joins Russia in opposing UN sanctions snapback on Iran," says Eric Brewer, deputy vice president for the Nuclear Threat Initiative's Nuclear Materials Security Program.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at growing fears in Iran that failing to strike a deal with the United States will lead to Tehran becoming a bargaining chip in Washington’s dealings with Russia and European powers.

What You Need To Know

• Former Diplomat Urges Iran To Make A Deal With U.S.: Ali Majedi, a former ambassador to Germany, has warned Iran that if it fails to make a deal with the United States, it will likely find itself used as a bargaining chip in a potential deal between Washington, European powers, and Moscow. This comes as the growing likelihood of a U.S.-Russian rapprochement has fueled concerns in Tehran that Moscow might abandon Iran in favor of a good deal with the Donald Trump administration.

• Tehran Speeds Up Production Of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium: In its confidential quarterly report, which was seen by news agencies this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Tehran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity had increased by 92.5 kilograms to 274.8 kilograms. The IAEA described the significant increase as a “serious concern.” Experts say Iran is a short, technical step away from enriching uranium to 90 percent, which is considered weapons-grade level.

• Iranian Exiles Sue Ex-Shah's "Chief Torturer": Three Iranian exiles have filed a $225 million lawsuit against Parviz Sabeti in a U.S. federal court, alleging years of torture by the former high-ranking security official under the shah. In the 1970s, Sabeti served as deputy head of SAVAK, the notorious security and intelligence agency of Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The plaintiffs claim Sabeti played a key role in institutionalizing torture in Iran, setting the stage for the coercive interrogation methods later adopted by the Islamic republic.

The Big Issue

Negotiating With U.S. ‘Inevitable’

With the return of the Trump administration’s "maximum pressure" policy and Tehran's continued refusal to negotiate with Washington, Iran finds itself in a difficult spot.

Its economy is in poor shape, living costs are going up, and the United States is tightening the noose on Iran’s oil exports.

Majedi, a former Iranian diplomat, said in an op-ed on February 22 that the situation would only get worse for Tehran the longer it waited to directly engage the United States. Otherwise, Iran could be used as a bargaining chip in Washington’s dealings with not only Moscow but also European powers.

He warned that, if Iran fails to persuade Britain, France, and Germany (the E3) that reimposing UN sanctions on Tehran would be unproductive, the E3 might cooperate with Trump to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran in exchange for concessions on his stance regarding the Ukraine war.

“What is certain is that if we don’t negotiate, others will negotiate about us and will make deals over our interests,” he wrote. “Negotiating with America is ultimately inevitable.”

Why It Matters: UN sanctions against Iran were lifted under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.

During his first term in office, Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran. His administration also tried to trigger the deal’s “snapback mechanism” to return UN sanctions against Iran, but that attempt failed.

While the nuclear deal is, for all intents and purposes, no longer in effect, it will formally expire in October 2025. What that means is that world powers only have a few months to “snap back” UN sanctions.

The E3 opposed Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and resisted his attempt to reimpose UN sanctions against Tehran. But they have in recent months expressed an openness to the possibility, particularly in light of Iran’s advancing nuclear program and its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

What's Being Said: Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a professor of political science at the Missouri University of Science and Technology, echoed Majedi’s sentiment in an interview with RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.

“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” he said.

But opponents of talks with Washington continue to insist there is nothing to be gained from negotiating with Trump.

Staunch critics of negotiations have pointed to Trump’s recent public rift with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as evidence that there is no point in talking to the U.S. president.

Specifically, they say the Ukraine mineral deal shows the extent of concessions that Trump expects.

The hardline Keyhan newspaper accused Zelenskyy of “handing over Ukraine’s minerals to Trump” while the conservative state-affiliated Mehr news agency claimed that “Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s fate is what [Iranian] liberals want for Iran.”

Expert Opinion: “This is a nudge to the Islamic republic’s leaders to seriously think about Iran’s situation on the international stage,” Boroujerdi said, referring to Majedi’s call for talks with Trump.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.