It’s the marquee celebration of the Russian calendar, the flagship event for Kremlin efforts to exalt the Soviet role in defeating Nazi Germany.
In recent years, the Red Square Victory Day parade has also served as the backdrop for President Vladimir Putin to glorify Moscow's war on Ukraine, as Russia's casualties –- dead and wounded -- surpass three-quarters of a million, according to Western estimates.
For Kremlin watchers, May 9 is a tea-leaf event, providing clues for shifts in thinking for Putin, now in his 26th year as the country’s preeminent leader, and government policies more broadly.
All the more this year, on the 80th anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany, and three-plus years into the invasion of Ukraine.
“Victory in the Great Patriotic War is the cornerstone of Vladimir Putin’s political mythology -- the foundation of his entire version of world history,” Mikhail Zygar, an exiled Russian journalist and book author, said in an essay. "The Kremlin has been preparing for this moment for months; it is the centerpiece of the regime’s propaganda calendar.”
Here’s a few things to watch for on May 9.
Which War Exactly?
Upwards of 27 million people -- military and civilians – died in the Soviet Union during what Russians call the Great Patriotic War. It was unparalleled devastation, and the Nazi defeat has long been celebrated as a testament to the mettle of Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and other nationalities who suffered.
In the years since he became president in 2000, Putin has used the events to bolster his standing among veterans. He has also used it to bash the West, downplaying the Allied role in the Nazi defeat and criticizing the United States, in particular.
In a 2007 Victory Day speech, Putin took a swipe at the United States, obliquely comparing US policies to those of the Nazi Third Reich.
After the February 2022 invasion, Putin made sure “neo-Nazis” were a prominent part of his speeches, echoing the unfounded Kremlin accusation justifying the Ukraine invasion: that the country was governed by a “Nazi” junta.
Who Sits Where?
According to the Kremlin, more than two dozen world leaders have tentatively accepted the invitation to attend the Moscow events, although last-minute cancellations were possible.
Several leaders from former Soviet republics like Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Armenia are expected to attend, as well as leaders from Bolivia, Cuba, Venezuela, Laos, Brazil, and others.
No leaders from the European Union are, with the exception of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico who has made critical comments about Ukraine in the past.
All eyes will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has become a key ally for Moscow in its war against Ukraine.
Beijing has continued to purchase Russian oil and gas, helping to fund Moscow's war effort, and keep the Russian economy afloat. Despite known misgivings, Beijing has said nothing publicly to criticize the Russian invasion.
“The image of Xi in Moscow underscores the growing tension at the heart of China’s foreign policy,” Patricia Kim, a research fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., said in an analysis. “Its strategic partnership with Russia increasingly collides with its broader ambitions to be seen as a responsible global leader, as a steadying alternative to what it depicts as American volatility and Western decline.”
Look to see if China also sends a contingent of soldiers to march across Red Square, which would be a symbolic show of support for the Kremlin.
Hardware On Display
During the Cold War, Victory Day parades were rare occurrences; the biggest annual event instead occurred in November, commemorating the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution often with a chest-thumping display of Soviet military technology.
Western analysts scrutinized lengths and widths of missile tubes and truck launchers, trying to figure out whether Moscow had the edge in the arms race.
Brash displays of hardware have become the norm over the past decade, particularly as the Kremlin has poured money into modernizing and rearming the military.
Beginning at the 2015 Red Square parade, officials showed off a new battle tank, the Armata T-14. Despite the public displays, however, the vehicle has not been deployed to Ukraine.
A year later, officials trucked a new long-range ballistic missile, the RS-24 Yars, across Red Square.
Since the 2022 invasion, new weaponry has appeared on Red Square less frequently -- a fact largely attributed to substantial hardware losses Russia has suffered.
Watch to see what weaponry trundles across Red Square’s cobblestones, or flies over the plaza. Look also to see if Russian officials put any captured Western hardware -- like Bradley fighting vehicles -- on display, as a way to thumb their noses at the West.
Who's Afraid of Ukrainian Drones?
In the lead-up to May 9, Ukraine launched sizable drone attacks on Russian targets, including one on May 6 that was largest in months.
Kyiv and Moscow have been pummeling one another for months now -- mainly with drones, but also missiles -- despite US-led efforts to find a cease-fire, or wider halt to the war.
Putin last month called for a three-day cease-fire to coincide with Victory Day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy countered with a proposal for a 30-day cease-fire in line with a US initiative that was approved by Kyiv but effectively rejected by Moscow in March.
It’s unclear whether Russian commanders will actually pause any fighting; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Putin’s order remained in effect, but said also that Russia would respond if Ukrainian forces open fire.
Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, said it was not Kyiv’s responsibility to guarantee the safety of visiting dignitaries in Moscow. The chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence warned guests at the parade to “bring ear plugs.”
"With regards to all countries that have traveled or are traveling to May 9, our position is very simple,” Zelenskyy said on May 3. “We cannot be held responsible for what is happening on the territory of the Russian Federation. They provide you with security, and therefore we will not give any guarantees."
Russian officials warned residents of Moscow and the surrounding region to refrain from lighting off fireworks this week. And telecom providers said that Internet services would be slowed, likely to thwart possible drone flights or remote-control detonations.
"There is no point in hitting Red Square," said Ivan Preobrazhensky, a Prague-based political commentator.
Ukrainian drones could reach Moscow, he told Current Time, "but the problem is that Russian propaganda would then present it as an assassination attempt on foreign leaders who will be attending the parade -- which is unlikely to be beneficial for Ukraine in the current circumstances."
A Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
Unable to secure a decisive victory, Moscow has turned elsewhere for men and materiel to continue the war: North Korea, most notably.
Last June, Putin traveled to Pyongyang to sign a new mutual defense treaty. A month prior, US officials said, North Korea sent hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, along with ballistic missiles.
Late in 2024, around 11,000 North Korean troops were deployed to fight alongside Russian troops, mainly in the Kursk border region, which Ukraine invaded last summer, embarrassing the Kremlin. Russian commanders have credited the troops with success in pushing Ukraine’s forces out of Kursk.
There are other signs of deepening cooperation. Wounded Russian soldiers have reportedly been sent to North Korea for treatment and recovery. Thousands of North Korean laborers have been shipped to Russia, mainly the Far East, to work in construction and other heavy industries, where labor shortages are common.
North Korean civilians have also started appearing at public ceremonies.
During pre-Victory Day events in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok, a delegation of North Korean children, dressed in military garb, joined hundreds of young Russian children marching in a military parade.
