The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I delve into U.S. President Donald Trump’s apparent reluctance to return to his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran and his explicit desire for a “verified nuclear peace agreement” with Tehran.

What You Need To Know

• Trump 'Torn' Over Increasing Iran Sanctions: Trump on February 4 signed a memo to bring back the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that was the cornerstone of his policy toward the Islamic republic during his first term in office. But he said he was "torn" about signing the memo, which aims to drive Iran’s oil sales down to zero. Iran has dismissed the move, but has also said it can offer Trump assurances that it is not trying to weaponize its nuclear program.

• 'Honor' Killings Epidemic: Every two days, a woman becomes a victim of femicide in Iran, according to an analysis by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. The New York-based NGO Stop Femicide Iran says the majority of women are killed in the name of preserving the family’s "honor."

• Pahlavi Says He's Been Barred From Attending The Munich Security Conference: Prominent opposition figure and Iran’s former crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, said on February 6 that he was “blocked” by the German Foreign Ministry from attending this year’s Munich Security Conference on February 14-16, despite receiving an invitation. Pahlavi accused Germany of trying to “appease the Islamic republic” and “silence the Iranian people.” The German Foreign Ministry has not directly addressed the claim, but a spokesperson told Radio Farda that conference organizers "independently" decide who can attend the gathering.

The Big Issue

Sanctions With A Chance Of Talks

When Trump hit Iran with sanctions during his first term in office, Iran’s oil sales plummeted but they did not quite reach zero.

While signing the memo in the White House to bring back his "maximum pressure" policy, Trump said it was “very tough” but added that he was “torn” about signing it. He said Iran was “too close” to weaponizing its nuclear weapon.

"With me, it's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump added.

He also expressed an openness to meeting his Iranian counterpart Masud Pezeshkian, but notably, he later wrote in a Truth Social post that he “would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper.”

Trump in 2018 withdrew the United States from a landmark nuclear deal negotiated by President Barack Obama, which included a mechanism whereby UN inspectors ensured Iran was keeping its nuclear program peaceful.

Why It Matters: Trump instructed relevant authorities to strictly enforce existing sanctions and later target a network facilitating Iran's oil sales to China.

Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden was widely believed to have relaxed the enforcement of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, in part to keep prices down, which contributed to a rise in Iranian oil sales. What also helped with that were Iran mastering sanctions-evading tactics and a Chinese appetite for Iranian oil.

“China is likely to respond negatively to any sanctions that touch its own banks, refiners, or ports. If the sanctions are limited to tankers or intermediaries, I doubt we'll see much of a reaction from Beijing," said Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.

Also notable is that Trump chose to issue a memorandum, which is generally less formal than an executive order.

“I believe this was a signal, and to make sure this signal was received in Tehran, Trump said several times that he hoped he would not have to enforce the memo,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.

What's Being Said: The message appears to have been received by the Iranians, who dismissed the efficacy of the "maximum pressure" campaign but also sought to reassure Trump that Tehran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

Pezeshkian insisted that Tehran knew how to bypass sanctions while Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the policy would “fail again.”

But the top Iranian diplomat later took to X to say that “it is not difficult to reach practical assurances” that Iran won’t develop nuclear weapons, in an apparent response to Trump’s concern about Tehran building nukes.

In return, Araqchi said, Iran wants “objective guarantees” that sanctions “will be effectively terminated.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who last week appeared to give his blessing to talks with Trump, struck a different tone after the "maximum pressure" announcement and said on February 7 that it "would not be smart or honorable to negotiate with such a government."

Expert Opinion: “The path that Trump has adopted vis-a-vis Iran is vastly different from what many expected, both in terms of statements and actions,” said Azizi.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL's Iran correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm exploring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's recent comments on engaging the United States and whether Iran is ready to make big concessions.

What You Need To Know

• Khamenei Gives Blessing To Talks With Trump: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this week appeared to green-light talks with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration in the hopes of lifting sanctions. Iranian officials had been signaling a desire to talk to Trump, but talks can't take place without Khamenei's say-so.

• Iran Frozen Out As World Warms Up To Syria's New Rulers: Syria's new government has reportedly held more than 200 diplomatic engagements since coming to power on December 8, including with Western and Arab delegations and, notably, Russian diplomats. Iran, however, is nowhere to be seen. Iran and Russia helped former President Bashar al-Assad fight rebel forces that now run the country. The Kremlin seems to have established some rapport with Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, but the Islamic republic has been entirely frozen out.

• U.S. Federal Funding Freeze Spooks Iran-Focused Advocacy Groups: NGOs and advocacy groups that focus on Iran have raised concerns about their work being impacted by the Trump administration's decision to pause federal grants and loans. The groups, some of which work on facilitating Internet access and monitoring human rights violations in Iran, argue that Tehran stands to benefit from the funding freeze. Hard-line media in Iran have welcomed the decision. A judge has blocked the temporary freeze, but the White House has said it will pursue its implementation.

The Big Issue

Expectations Vs. Reality: What Is Iran Ready To Give Up?

Khamenei told a gathering of state officials and envoys from Muslim nations on January 28 that Tehran should be wary of "enmity and grudges" concealed behind "diplomatic smiles."

But he followed that up by saying that when "you know the person you're dealing with," it's possible to "make a deal but you also know what to do."

This comment is widely seen as a green light to sit down with the Trump administration -- something that seemed impossible just a few years ago.

Why It Matters: Iran has suffered setbacks abroad and is facing challenges at home, not least a struggling economy and weak currency -- both exacerbated by U.S. sanctions.

Iran wants the sanctions lifted, but the question is what Khamenei is willing to negotiate away. Iran is at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades. With its network of regional proxies politically and militarily degraded, the only real bargaining chips Tehran is left with are its advanced nuclear and missile programs.

There are no good options for Iran: It insists its nuclear program is peaceful and meant to generate power, while its missile program is an integral part of its defensive doctrine. Budging on either will upset the Islamic republic's core support base, but not making any meaningful concessions will only add to international pressure and further sink the economy.

What's Being Said: Supporters of engaging Trump have taken Khamenei's comments to mean he is backing "cautious negotiations" with the U.S. president.

But opponents of talks with the West insist that it would be "naive" to take Khamenei's remarks as a green light to open negotiations with Trump.

Khamenei has perfected equivocation, speaking in vague terms that open up his comments to interpretation. He does not like to publicly commit to a position, likely because it shields him from taking responsibility when things go south.

Expert Opinion: "Khamenei's main plan is to buy time and manage the situation to navigate the second Trump presidency with minimal risk, based on the implicit acknowledgment of the regime's weakened position both domestically and internationally," says Ali Afshari, a U.S.-based political analyst and adjunct professor at George Washington University.

What's Ahead

These are the stories we'll be watching between now and the next issue of the Farda Briefing:

• Iran has been waiting to receive advanced Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia for nearly two years. A military official's comment this week about Tehran having purchased the warplanes has observers wondering whether delivery is close.
• Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref will attend a summit of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on January 31-February 1.
• RFE/RL's Radio Farda has interviewed Oscar-nominated Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof, whose movie The Seed of the Sacred Fig is up for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film in March. You can watch a sneak peek of the interview here.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.